$10+1 Bubble AK lay down - too tight?

[Marcotte]

There is 7 left on the other table, with a couple very low stacks. Top ten get paid. I doubled up about 7-10 hands back when my 55 sucked out on QQ. Too tight to lay this down? If not, how do you play back?

Seat 2: luckeyd ($3,624 in chips)
Seat 4: phnompenh ($32,928 in chips)
Seat 5: SnapNet ($14,412 in chips)
Seat 6: Marcotte [KH,AD] ($27,916 in chips)
Seat 7: jesse zzz ($17,866 in chips)
Seat 9: hoopster ($9,015 in chips)

ANTES/BLINDS
Marcotte posts blind ($300), jesse zzz posts blind ($600).

PRE-FLOP
hoopster calls $600, luckeyd folds, phnompenh folds, SnapNet bets $4,000, Marcotte folds, jesse zzz folds, hoopster folds.

SHOWDOWN
SnapNet wins $5,500

SUMMARY
Dealer: SnapNet
Pot: $5,500
luckeyd, loses $0
phnompenh, loses $0
SnapNet, bets $4,000, collects $5,500, net $1,500
Marcotte, loses $300
jesse zzz, loses $600
hoopster, loses $600

[bobman0330]

This is a very interesting hand. I find the raise to 4k first in almost unfathomable, especially for someone in his tenuous chip position. With a monster like AA/KK, i would expect him to play it a little softer to try to draw someone in for a big score. With a weaker hand he just wanted to steal the antes with, I would expect a bit less than 6.5x the BB. Obviously, your read on the player is controlling here, but it seems to me like he has a hand he doesn't want to bust with, maybe AQ or TT, but also a hand strong enough that he doesn't want to get bluffed out. I think he's raised this amount so that it won't be a catastrophe if someone comes over the top, but also so that they'll be afraid to do so without a legit hand. This would make the most sense if resteals are common, or if people tend to flat call standard 3-4xBB steal-raises. The latter would tend to build a sizeable pot that would be very hard for him to play with a moderate holding.

Given that it won't break you if you lose this hand, I'd set him in and expect a fold.

[zaxx19]

Depends alot on the particular read for the villain...you expect him too fold to a reraise here that is interesting for 2 reasons.

1) He raised ~28% of his chips when the blinds allowed for a much more modest raise. People dont USUALLY raise over a quarter of their chips here to fold if someone comes over the top.

2)He raised ~7BB why the hell would he do this only to fold if someone came over the top?? Why wouldnt he just pop it 1600 on a steal or on any raise he was sure to surrender if moved in on??

3) You just showed down 55(all in im assuming by the sucked out comment) this will marginally lessen your folding equity here. Smells like 10 10, JJ or QQ or even AK here though I might be wrong.

p.s. this isnt a horrible raise with KK Im not sure why you are ruling it out here...cant really like super slow play KK at this point can he??

[bobman0330]

If I'm mistaken, it wouldn't be the first time (or the second) or the last. But I don't think you're taking tournament factors into account enough. To be honest, villain's raise doesn't make a great deal of sense with any hand, but I think my suggestion is the most logical (I would, wouldn't i?). If he had something like KK, he'd have to raise for sure, but by raising so much he's really hurting his chances of getting action, and failing to do so with a competitive stack would be criminal here.

You're correct that he's pot-committing himself, almost flamboyantly so. But I think this is in actuality a game of chicken with anyone holding AK or a pair of 9s. If they believe they can't push him off his hand, they'll have to fold. However, hero has the advantage of a relatively deep stack, which is the trump card in this situation.

[zaxx19]

The raise makes sense with JJ or QQ here to me. He is pricing it out of AJ a10...KQ range. He also assumes AK or even AQ most probably will come over the top here which is fine since he is a favorite. Worst case there is a caller and he can see if a A or K hits the flop with enough chips to bail.

[IrishSTAG15]

Not too tight; either a reraise all-in or the fold is fine here. Probably a coinflip. If you're really going for the $, it's a pretty obvious push.

With no previous experience with the man, I'd put him on TT. I agree with the previous post that KK is highly unlikely; sure you don't want a loose call from a medium A, but you certainly want action.

[KKsuited]

I'd reraise all-in, no question for me. I've kicked myself for such moves in the past, but that's still how I'd play it. The only 2 hands you don't want to see is AA or KK, which I think is highly unlikely given the raise.

If you lose, you still have over 20 BB's and should be able to slide into the money. If you want to win, I think a few of these gambles are required.

[Marcotte]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd reraise all-in, no question for me. I've kicked myself for such moves in the past, but that's still how I'd play it. The only 2 hands you don't want to see is AA or KK, which I think is highly unlikely given the raise.

If you lose, you still have over 20 BB's and should be able to slide into the money. If you want to win, I think a few of these gambles are required.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a really good point. The short stack on the other table had just survived an all-in in the BB. (Big stack kept the bubble alive by calling him with 72s, allowing him to double up.) Short stack then folded his SB and was going to be all-in after the next orbit. Even if I lose, I'm almost guarenteed ITM. If I can win a nice pot I'm in even better position to slide into the top 3.