NL200, pair plus draw....

[Jonny]

Paradise NL200, I have a full stack of $200, as does my opponent. My read on him is that he is a solid player, and a regular in the game. Basically pretty straightfoward.

The hand: I limp in MP with J /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gif. One caller behind and then the SB (solid villain) makes it $8 to go. I call the remaining 6, as does LP player.

Flop ($24) is K /images/graemlins/heart.gif6 /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Villain leads out for 12. I have 2nd pair and a flush draw, so I call the bet. I think this could eithe mean he is weak or he possibly hit a set. I did not want to raise, as a reraise from a set would drive me out, and I wanted the LP player around if I flushed. LP folded after I called. 2 to the turn...

Turn ($48):7 /images/graemlins/club.gif, a blank.
Villain again leads out for 12. This is where my main question arises about the hand. What can you put the villian on, and do you call or raise the turn?

Results later...

[soah]

If you raise here I think the only better hand that he will fold is AQ. The only hand you can beat which has many outs is something like AhTh which is rather unlikely. So I'd just call. If you catch a Q or J on the river I'd just call again as he could be milking you with KQ, KK, QQ, and won't call a raise if he's genuinely weak.

I may have raised the flop though, since it may win the pot or at least earn you a free card, and sets you up to win a huge pot if you're called and hit. Your equity on the turn is much lower though if you're behind.

[pdubz]

Call. From a pure odds stand point if you think your flush outs are all clean you are getting just pot odds to call. I don't think you can milk him for extra though -- a flush draw is fairly apparent. The board hasn't paired, so I'm not worried about sets. And as mentioned above, its a good idea to just call behind if you improve to trips or two pair instead of making a raise. AK is possible enough for it to be profitable.

Addendum: And don't raise. If you raise you could get blown out of the hand.

[Jonny]

I did indeed just call the 12, and the river came an offsuit King.

He bets 12 on the river. Call raise or fold?

[Jonny]

bump.

call raise or fold the river???

[SmileyEH]

Easy call.

-SmileyEH

[okayplayer]

I'd say call as it is such a small bet (1/7th pot), and if anything it's an information call. I would expect you to lose to AQ though. It would be a weak way to play a set or TP...but maybe it's KQ.

[Richie Rich]

The pot is offering you 7-to-1 (i.e. 84 to 12) to call on the river. As such, you only have to be right 1/6th of the time in order for this to be a +EV move. Super easy call.

[Jonny]

I did call, and was indeed shown AQ.