Folded AK preflop. Thoughts?

[partygirluk]

4 table shootout in London. Top two from each table qualify for the final table and £s. 3rd hand in, I pick up AKo UTG. Blinds are 25/25 and everyone has about a Grand in chips. I make it 100 to go. Some guy I have never seen before in my life raises to 500. I folded. Now I am not so sure, perhaps I was weak tight.

All comments appreciated.

[woodguy]

Ugh.

That's not a fun one.
I think you have to put him on a pair, probably something like JJ and he really doesn't want to see a flop fearing overcards. He may also have AK and not know how to play it.

You have to either push or fold, calling off 1/2 your stack hoping to hit the flop is ludicrious.

Given that you are probably a slight dog, have basically 0 folding equity (seems pretty pot commited to me) and that you still have 900 chips with the blinds at 25/25, I'd probably fold it too.

Regards,
Woodguy

[SossMan]

I would fold...

did you see that zaxx?

[zaxx19]

I will slap the loose aggressiveness right out of...ooops already did!!! /images/graemlins/grin.gif EASY Muck IF you are anywhere near avg or better than avg compared to the other players. He might have JJ or QQ...then again he might have KK AA or AKs. Im not inclined to find out on the 3rd hand with no reads personally.

[partygirluk]

You give your opponents a lot of credit. I have not played much live. Perhaps others can answer better. However, I fear that he could have been doing this with an AQ or AJ. Not everyone is a smart, educated poker player. He might not be thinking

"This dude open raised UTG, he must have a premium hand".

In fact, given that he has never seen me before, that might be a valid assumption.

[esbesb]

Why would you fold that Sossman, rather than push? Tx.

[zaxx19]

If you are more concerned with laying down what MIGHT BE the best hand early in a tourney rather than with ultimately winning the tournament then I sincerly believe you will have a negative EV in tourney play. Just my 2 cents Im no world beater myself.

FYI- I move in without a 2nd thought with KK regardless of what other players do here. So im not THAT weak tight.

[adanthar]

He's representing KK-JJ with an outside shot at aces or another AK. He might be a LAG or a complete maniac and actually holding a middle pair or K4o...but with no read you can't push, and even a 'mere' LAG is ahead of you.

This is a fold.

[JaBlue]

I would fold and never play this tournament again. How can you start off with a 40-blind stack? Unless the levels are INCREDIBLY slow, or you have some reason other than profit in mind when playing, I would just find another tournament.

But yeah, that situation sucks and you just have to fold it.

[IrishSTAG15]

JaBlue makes the best point of the entire thread.

Oh, yeah, fold.

[betgo]

Push. The money is not deep enough to fold AK here. All you are worried about is AA and KK. A lot of people would make a smaller reraise with either of thse hands. It is probably a slightly favorable bet conisidering pot odds against a pair. Your opponent could easily have AQ. A loose aggressive player good have Ax or Kx. Push and take your chances or call and push on the flop with a stop and go.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you fold that Sossman, rather than push? Tx.

[/ QUOTE ]

no folding equity.
no read on opponent.
not enough dead money for a probable 55-45 dog.
not enough players in live tourneys make that raise w/ smaller aces.
I would push all day in an online rebuy tourney (if I played online).

Generally, this falls under the "avoid marginal EV situations for all your chips" category.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Generally, this falls under the "avoid marginal EV situations for all your chips" category.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why? If you double up, you will have a big advantage as the biggest stack in stealing blinds etc. Only two players advance. In a MTT or one player advances satellite, it would be even more important to gamble.

[partygirluk]

What if he had raised to 300? Now I think all 3 alternatives have merit.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
What if he had raised to 300? Now I think all 3 alternatives have merit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not sure if I would push or fold to the smaller raise. I would be a little more worried about AA or KK with this raise. AK is a hand designed to push with: you definately don't want to flat call. You may have some folding equity here. However, if your opponent knows what he is doing, he is unlikley to fold, as he is getting 2-1 on his money.

[grandgnu]

Blinds at 25/25 and you only have 1000 chips to start with. It's early in the tourney, and to win you need to make some moves. Don't recall if you listed the buy-in or prize structure, but I'd move all-in and get him heads-up.

Why would he raise to 500? If he gets called, he's pot committed. If you raise all-in he *might* fold, but is probably 85% or more likely to call you. I suspect he's got A/J, A/Q, A/K or a small pocket pair (Jacks or lower). He wants you to go away.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Generally, this falls under the "avoid marginal EV situations for all your chips" category.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why? If you double up, you will have a big advantage as the biggest stack in stealing blinds etc. Only two players advance. In a MTT or one player advances satellite, it would be even more important to gamble.

[/ QUOTE ]

I misread the fact that this is a shootout. This makes it closer. I don't mind a push here, I guess. I think it's relatively close.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
What if he had raised to 300? Now I think all 3 alternatives have merit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you can fold now. If you were in position (i.e. he's in the blinds) I might call, but I much prefer a push since you are out of position to play a flop, and you now have a decent amount of folding equity.

[partygirluk]

OK. More about the structure.

There were 4 tables of 9 players. Blinds increased every 15 minutes. First to 25/50, then 50/100 etc. All the tables played down to 2 players, who took their remaining chips to the final table of 8.

Pay off structure was something like

1st £230
2nd £145
3rd £100
4th £72
5th £58
6th £38
7th £29
8th £22

The final table was starting with 150/300 blinds (Av. chip count 4500).

[david050173]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What if he had raised to 300? Now I think all 3 alternatives have merit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you can fold now. If you were in position (i.e. he's in the blinds) I might call, but I much prefer a push since you are out of position to play a flop, and you now have a decent amount of folding equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming this is heads up and that you act before him, how about the stop and go? If you are against medium/small pair, this might buy you some more outs if he will fold it if an overcard falls. Of course when the monochrome board comes and you push into the nut flush, you look like and idiot...

[partygirluk]

My friend pushed all in and got shown KK.
I said that I folded, because otherwise some might presume this was a "I pushed all in with AK and got shown AA" thread, and I did not want to bias the answers.

[kalooki45]

I agree with woodguy--I'd probably fold here..putting the guy on a big PP. I don't like getting half my chips in the middle on the first hand with AK..the most treacherous hand in poker! lol..
My poker motto:
Any Two Cards Can LOSE....heheheh
but then I'm a huge wuss!

[lady4luck]

I THINK YOU DID THE RIGHT THING.. AK IS GOOD BUT IT'S BEAT B4 THE FLOP BY ANY PAIR... AND EVEN IF HE DIDN'T HAVE YOU BEAT.. THERE'S NOT A POKER PLAYER ALIVE WHO HASN'T DUMPED THE BEST HAND AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER, RIGHT...