LHE: pushing overcards

Recently I've been playing more limit HE tournaments (and doing pretty well). However, at the final table short handed, I have lost a lot of chips on similar hands: say you are called by, you are 90+% sure, a weaker hand preflop, when you have AQs or similar. The flop comes little, but not straight or flush like. When do you stop pushing (or do you not push?)? I tend to bet to the end if they show no aggression.


Thanks,

Craig

Interesting question, Craig. I'm particularly curious to see how Fossilman and Ignatius respond.


I think a lot will depend on how your opponent perceives you. According to your post, it sounds like you are raising pre-flop and getting called, presumably by either a player behind you or by one of the blinds. Either way, I'll assume you are playing the pot heads-up. For most players, a pre-flop raise at a shorthanded final table indicates that their most likely holding is 2 big unpaired cards. So a good opponent may realize that a ragged flop is unlikely to have hit you, and they may be able to use that information to outplay you with nothing.


In general, I've had decent success being very aggressive on the flop in this case. If I play first, I'll bet into most flops. If I check, it's only with the intention of check-raising. If I'm playing behind my opponent, I will raise any bet and bet any check on the flop. In L.H.E. we're still at the lower limit on the flop, so this isn't paricularly expensive to my stack. I'm hoping my opponent will interpret my pre-flop raise along with my flop bet (or flop raise or flop check-raise) as meaning "I've got a very large overpair to the board," and give up right there.


If I get called or raised (or reraised) by a decent opponent who I feel must have at least considered that I could have a big pair (but he then called or raised anyway), I shut down the rest of the hand unless I catch on 4th street. I doubt my high-card Ace is going to be leading if I've had both a pre-flop raise and a raise/bet on the flop called.


Hope those thoughts might help.


--Mark

This is very opponent specific. You have to take into account how likely the opponent is to fold, to play back as a bluff or semi-bluff, and to stick it out with a baby pair (in hand or on the flop). Some opponents will fold on the flop every time they miss. Others will always call the flop bet with their overcards, but fold if they miss the turn and you bet again. Others will put you on AK and bet/raise aggressively to try and knock you out if the board is all smaller cards.


Your goal is to figure out which they are, and play accordingly. There is no default play, really.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Thanks Greg!


Believe it or not, this is what I was looking for, and didn't know it. Now that I think about it, it wasn't the particular stage of the tourney that made me lose where I usually win, it was the opps, because these guys were taking any piece of the flop to the river, while I had adjust to those that would call and flop bet, but fold on the turn. This points out a huge area for improvement for me in monitoring my opps.


Craig


PS What do you do against an unfamiliar player, are there any general suggestions? Treat them like the average player at that stage in that type of tourney?

> I'm particularly curious to see how Fossilman and Ignatius respond.


I'm flattered but probably the wrong guy to ask as I rarely play limit HE. Anyway, so here are my 2c:


The first thing to realize when you miss the flop with AQ, is that you are now a favorite to lose the hand and there's a 40% chance that you are already behind (assuming your opponent has an undominated unpaired hand), so your mission now is to minimize your losses or try to break even. I will further assume that no sane opponent will ever muck a pair in this spot (I know that I wouldn't).


FossilMan is right on target here: There's no way that you can break even (let alone show a profit) in this situation (missing the flop with overcards) unless you know your opponent's tendencies.


If I don't know anything about my opponent, my default strategy here is to bet the flop and turn but check-call the river (assuming he checks and calls; when he plays back then you need to use your judgement or at least trust your instincts). This is a losing strategy (you already had your chance by hitting the flop), but I think that's it's an OK compromize between giving up and betting the hand down.


cu


Ignatius

Yes, with an unfamiliar player, I must pretend that they are typical for that event at that stage. If it's an event that features lots of weak calling stations, I won't take their call to mean anything in particular. If it's a high-priced tourney full of great players, I also won't know where they're at, as they may be making a play at me. However, if the person comports themselves as a steady, boring, regular player, I'll assume that their call means they have at least a pair or a quality draw.


Trying to "tell" their hand is really a great attribute to have here. Sometimes even with strangers you can sense whether they have a weak hand or not.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)