Mirage NL Hand: Flopping a Set

Here's a hand from the Tuesday No Limit Event at the Mirage. I've been running bad lately...just a string of bad beats and bad luck. The last six tourneys I've been knocked out VERY early...Anyway, he's a hand that illustrates how badly things have gotten for me.


First hand after the beak. The blinds are 25-20. I have T1350 in MP. Two limpers in front of the me...I decide to limp with 6d6s....4 more limpers behind.....the SB completes....BB checks...8 of us see the flop....


The Flop comes....


6hAh5h.


Checks to me..I decided to bet 300 to try and knock out all the flush draws...Everyone folds to the SB, who happens to be the chip leader...he moves in....BB and 2 other limpers muck....At this point, I know he's sitting with a flush...but with the amount of money in the pot....I decided to call...Of course he shows Kh3h for the nuts....the turn and river are blanks...and just like that I'm outta there...


Was calling the rest of my chips with a set knowing I was behind the right thing to do?? I felt I did the right thing...but I wanted to get some opinions..


Thanks...

This could be one of those situations where betting turns a good hand into a bad one, because you don't want to get raised.


When you get check-raised it looks like 1000 to call with about 2000 in the pot, and you have something like a 35% chance to outdraw the flush (if you're sure that's his hand), so it's close.


It might have been better to just check along on the flop. You might get a free card if someone is slow-playing the flush, or if there is a bet you might have more information when it comes back to you. For example you probably don't mind going all in against two opponents rather than one.


Andy.

If you were ever going to overbet the pot, this would be the time to do it.


Of course, if somebody has a flush, they are going to be hard if not impossible to get rid of. Especially the guy who flopped the nuts, in this case. However, the advantage of moving in is that somebody with a singleton heart, even the nut heart, is getting nowhere near the odds to call. And if they do call, that's OK since you're going to win something like 75% of the time.


One key factor here is how many of these folks might fold a made flush that is nowhere near the nuts. For example, what if they had Th9h? You could be jamming with the nuts (not likely), but less likely you could be jamming with the Q or J high flush to make sure the singleton Kh folds. They don't know, and might muck. If you bet 300 or 400, they certainly won't fold, and once you do that, betting the pot or less on the turn, they'll feel committed and call again.


The idea of checking has merit, but I'd only do this if I was pretty sure that somebody had a flush. If most of these players would slowplay their flush rather than betting it, then I'd take teh free card. If most of them would bet it, I would assume that I need to bet to get weak singleton hearts to fold now before they catch.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

> At this point, I know he's sitting with a flush


If you were sure of your read, you have to muck. Your are a 2:1 dog (34.44%) vs. a flush and don't get odds to call. Even if you were only 80% sure to be behind, I'd still prefer a fold in a tournament, even if your call would be slightly +EV (chipwise).


> The blinds are 25-20


If this should read 25-50, then you get break-even odds on the flop against a flush. This can make a difference if you have some remaining doubt in your read.


cu


Ignatius

Do you really think there are some, if any, that would lay down a flush on the flop. It ain't happening.