gutshot, backdoor, and some tainted outs

[Alobar]

MP in this hand is a HUGE LAG preflop, seems to raise any 2 cards, will even 3 bet any 2 cards as he sees fit. He isnt as aggresive post flop. But as a result the whole table has gone on tilt pre flop, but the aggresion level isnt very high post flop.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, MP calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (16 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: (10 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (10 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12 BB

[Alobar]

bump

[JrJordan]

Looks like a pretty good play all around. I started thinking that the flop raise was questionable. You're going to want to vomit if the villain 3-bets you here. However, it's well worth that risk to make the blinds call two cold in order to play, and it gives you a chance for that ever so glorious free card. When you hit the river, I'd say the pot is big enough to call with vs. the LAG.

[Rubeskies]

I think the river call is really thin. What does this guy cap preflop that you now beat?

I can't think of a single hand.

[Rubeskies]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say the pot is big enough to call with vs. the LAG.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe the LAG folded the flop.

[Jeff W]

The river call is thin but he said the table was on tilt pre flop, so that widens BB's hand range. I'm still not convinced that the river call is best, but I think its close.

The hand was played well otherwise. Very tough situation.

[JrJordan]

Oops, my bad on the LAG thing. Still, if the whole table is on tilt preflop, then I'd say that 1 in 10 times you see AT or KJ in there. I doubt he has a Q because he would have most likely 3-bet the flop. AK is the most likely hand when he hits the straight on the river, but he might also be thinking his T could be good here, or is just betting into a likely missed draw. For this size pot I'd say it's a reasonable call.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the river call is really thin. What does this guy cap preflop that you now beat?

I can't think of a single hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

99-66 aren't impossible to see from the capper's hand.

[William Jockusch]

Well played all around. You absolutely must call the river. In fact if the river were a blank, I'd still say it's right to call. If you are winning even 10% of the time, the call is a significant money winner.

[kiddo]

If everyone (except our Hero) is totally focused on punish this guy I can see them capping any good drawing hand (ATs, JTs) or even a medium pair. Hoping to flop big and win a giant pot.

When people tilt preflop like this it is because they are focusing on only 1 player. Its like they suddenly think they are playing him HU. Since he is coming in with any2 people start to think that Axs is a monster.

Easy call on river when table is tilting, especially since the capper only called flopraise and checked turn (the way the hand was played, there is a small chance that his riverbet is a desperate act, hoping to steal). And since it was capped preflop, pot gives very good odds. If our Hero win 1/10 its EV+

[Rubeskies]

[ QUOTE ]
I can see them capping any good drawing hand (ATs, JTs)

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero loses to JTs


[ QUOTE ]
When people tilt preflop like this it is because they are focusing on only 1 player. Its like they suddenly think they are playing him HU. Since he is coming in with any2 people start to think that Axs is a monster.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but hero already 3-bet and SB called. It isn't like the guy is going for an iso raise.

[ QUOTE ]
Easy call on river when table is tilting, especially since the capper only called flopraise and checked turn (the way the hand was played, there is a small chance that his riverbet is a desperate act, hoping to steal). And since it was capped preflop, pot gives very good odds. If our Hero win 1/10 its EV+

[/ QUOTE ]

I highly doubt hero is good here 1/10.

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
I highly doubt hero is good here 1/10.


[/ QUOTE ]

I highly disagree with you....I would guess hero has a 25% chance of winning this pot. The river is an easy call.

[Rubeskies]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I highly doubt hero is good here 1/10.


[/ QUOTE ]

I highly disagree with you....I would guess hero has a 25% chance of winning this pot. The river is an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't just give us 25%. Tell me why.

[helpmeout]

99 88 AJs ATs

[aggie]

"99 88 AJs ATs "

Yes, exactly, thanks...Those, and just about anything else...All we know about this opponent is that he is playing 5-10 at party-poker....Which does not say much for his starting hand requirements...He bet out on the flop, called a raise, checked the turn, and bet out again after weakness was shown....Could be any of the hands mentioned above, or many many others...that's why i believe there is at least a 25% chance AJ is good!

[JrJordan]

I certainly don't think he's good here 1:4, but there is something to be said about the villain betting the river after the hero shows weakness on the turn. For me, that accounts for the majority of the equity in making this call because there are very few reasonable hands the villain could have that the hero beats. If you account for that betting from weakness, the villain may in fact think his AT/KT (ok, KT unlikely) is good. Also if he happened to hit his J he'd probably bet out that as well. Unless the villain is LAG pretty lag postflop, I doubt he's betting out with 88 or 99. It really comes down to how often he could have a hand like AT, AJ, KT, or KJ. I feel one in elven times he does.