The EV of STEPs 1-2 and 3-4

[adanthar]

Disclaimer: I have nowhere near enough of these logged to constitute a real sample and a large part of what I do know is anecdotal. That said, let's proceed:

I believe that, for a few winning players who fit certain categories - namely, 20+2/50+5 regulars with smaller but adequate bankrolls who have logged either hundreds or thousands of SNG's and who understand satellite play - STEPs are incredibly +EV, down to 500% or more for STEP 1's.

This is a pretty big assertion, but let me explain:

-STEP's 1 and 2 are incredibly fishy. 'Incredibly' doesn't even do them justice, in fact; the play of a STEP 1 is roughly equivalent to a 5+1 or 10+1 SNG but with the added bonus that none of the players understand satellite structure. Big stacks will routinely call all ins by medium stacks on the bubble, small stacks will fold their way into 7'th in a STEP 2 and then be happy to collect their $18 profit, etc. Given my *very* limited sample size coupled with the people who have won their way to STEP 5 (let's not talk about cashing yet) and table chatter in those STEP's I have played, I think that for one of those players, a long term advancement rate of 40-50% from STEP 1 to 2 is not absolutely out of the question.

-The sole difference between STEP 1 and 2 is that 2 occasionally gets washouts from 3 and 4, along with people whose time is worth too much to play the 1's and who buy into the 2's directly. However, the vast majority of the players in any given 2 are simply fish that got lucky in 1 (as most winners in STEP 1 aren't necessarily *good*.) In addition, it pays more spots; even though the bubble is still at 5-6 players, the play is still loose with 7-8 left and this works to your advantage as a short stack (eg, even if advancing to 3 looks unlikely you can still fold into repeating the 2.) I believe the long term advancement rate from the 2's to the 3's are almost as good as from 1 to 2, for a total of 3-5 1's to enter a STEP 3. This is paying $40 to enter a $215 tournament.

---

-STEP 3's and 4's are a different animal; this is where your knowledge of satellite play is greatly tested. In addition, STEP 4, which is hugely +EV for a top pro compared to 5, is where many of the STEP 5 regulars buy in. But, again, because of the sheer amount of places that 'pay out' entries, the advancement rate is *huge*. Even with an advantage over the field of only 5% in Step 3 and -5% (not giving up too much ground*) in Step 4, the advancement rates are going to be 40% apiece. [I've slightly increased the raw number for both since the 'go back to Step X' entries do count for something.]

*this is more likely than you'd think since any advantage a player like Gigabet has with his aggressiveness in a Step 5 setting is completely nullified by his 100% fold rate once he gets chips in a Step 4.

Since I previously used a figure of 3-5 STEP 1's per STEP 3 ticket and it would seem that even a break even STEP 3 player would get to STEP 5 16% of the time (1 in 6-7), our hypothetical player would go from the bottom to the top once for every 18-35 tries. In other words, if you play a lot of these you are going to be paying ~$250 to enter a tournament with a $1065 buyin.

If you're ever so slightly better and actually have a decent edge in STEP 3/so much as break even in STEP 4, your edge grows exponentially higher. I think some of the regulars on this board can definitely top a 500% return by a substantial amount.

Of course, the problem is that to *get* paid, you must get lucky in a 5...in which, at best, you're giving up a fair amount of ground.

Does this overcome a 500% return? I don't think it does.

Thoughts?

[ilya]

I think you estimate for long-term advancement rate from Step 1 to Step 2 is too optimistic. I think something like 40% is probably the uppermost limit.

[adanthar]

Hmm...

The top 10+1 SNG players at Party (or a 215 player that slums down there) can probably hit something like 45% ITM/40% ROI.

Taking those numbers as a baseline, I believe the sat structure rewards skill more than a straight out SNG does, but I'm not sure how much of a boost that gives and the STEP 1 obviously plays fewer spots. Still, the bubble play is just so bad...

I don't know, but even if the number's 40% for both 1 and 2, the end result is still over 200%.

[Myst]

I believe the STEPS tournament are +EV for the excellent 2+2 player who doesnt have an adequate bankroll to directly buyin to either Step 4 or 5.

Adanthar is right on. The Step 1 and Step 2 tournaments are full of weak fish. Here are my personal results so far: (and yes, I understand they are a small sample and that they arent statistically significant).

Total Invested: $162
Step 1 Tournaments Bought in: 14
Step 1 Tournaments Advanced: 6
Step 2 Tournament Freerolls: 6
Step 2 Tournament Advanced: 2

From those 2 freerolls, I have advanced to Step 5 with 1 and Step 4 with another. Basically, Ive accumulated a $1600 package with only $162.

I believe a 40~45% ITM is sustainable in both Step 1 and Step 2. The difference between STEPS and an regular SNG is the length of the tournament and slower blind structure - a STEPS tourny lasts about 1 hour 30 minutes with blinds increasing every 10 min (as opposed to every 10 hands) and more blind levels to boot.

So my estimates?

Assume you 4-table 24 Step 1 Tournaments (12 hours)
You will probably accumulate:
10-12 Step 2 Freerolls
(Assume 40-50% success rate from Step 1 to Step 2)
5-6 Step 3 Freerolls
(Assume 40-50% success rate from Step 2 to Step 3)
2-3 Step 5 Freerolls
(Assume 40-50% success rate from Step 3 to Step 5)


Now assume you are as good as the average player in a Step 5. You should make it ITM 20% of the time. Following my estimates, that means you should have a cash approximately every 40 Step 1 tournaments.

Cost of 40 Step 1 Tournys: ($12 x 40) = $480
Assume average distrubition (1/4 you make ITM, you get 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th)
($9000 x .25)+($5000 x .25)+($3600 x .25)+($2400 x .25)
$2250 + $1250 + $900 + $600 = $5000
ROI = $5000 - $480 / $480 = 941%

Lets make the assumption that every time you make ITM, you always get 4th place! Your ROI is still huge!
ROI= $2400-$480 / $480 = 400%

The key to success in these tournaments is thinking long term. YOU WILL NOT CASH EVERYTIME YOU MAKE IT TO STEP 5. With long term variance, it might take a long term before you make an ITM. But when you do, all your work will be worth it!

View it as akin to diversifying a portfolio. Im going to devote half my time playing SNGs, and the other half playing STEPS, and have seperate bankrolls for both. That way, if I go through a long dry spell in STEPS, I will always have my steady SNG profits to rely on.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]

Assume you 4-table 24 Step 1 Tournaments (12 hours)
You will probably accumulate:
10-12 Step 2 Freerolls
(Assume 40-50% success rate from Step 1 to Step 2)
5-6 Step 3 Freerolls
(Assume 40-50% success rate from Step 2 to Step 3)
2-3 Step 5 Freerolls
(Assume 40-50% success rate from Step 3 to Step 5)

[/ QUOTE ]

I still think the 1-->2 and 2-->3 ITM estimates should top out at around 40%, but ok.
But 40% success rate going from 3-->5?! More like 0.16 or so...

[FishBurger]

One of the problems with starting at the first step is the length of time it will take you to reach Step 5. Even if you are correct that this is +EV for certain lower-limit players, you still might have to play 20 or more Step 5s to place.

So, even if your assumptions are correct, with just normal variance, your typical lower limit player might deplete their bankroll before they ever place in the Step 5s. That doesn't mean that starting from Step 1 wouldn't necessarilly be profitable for that player in the long run, it just means that the player might not have the bankroll to sustain the normal swings one would expect to see in a multi-table tourney.

[ZeeJustin]

Your return rates are overly optimistic. You neglect to mention variance which will be HUGE when you play in step 1. You also neglect the time factor. For a skilled player, entering step 1, and playing through, I wouldn't be surprised if this took over 5 hours on average.

Stick to your cash-only sngs, and avoid the step tourneys.

You also completely neglected step 5. There's some very tough competition in that step.

[eastbay]

I don't think it's useful to talk about $EV of steps 1-4 independently of step 5. Take the limiting case of step 5 being impossible. Then the $EV of a step 1 entry is zero, no matter how easy those games are.

I personally think these things are a terrible proposition for most players. They're a $1k 2-table SnG for the top few players - with the bonus that some midlimit players get thrust into the game from lower steps, and mostly it's really just a rake churning machine for PP for those playing below.

eastbay

[Irieguy]

I did the exact same analysis you did a few days ago with a friend and came up with numbers in the same neighborhood that you did.

We concluded that we could expect a 200%-300% ROI on our step 1 buy-ins to the level 5 entry.

The problem, as ZeeJustin says, is step 5. I've played one so far and it was the single most competitive poker tournament I have ever played in... including 1-table satellites for WSOP events. I waited for a few hours and selected a step 5 with only 5 players that looked dangerous: Spyhard, Missyrules, N3V3RBluff, Comeonphish, and Sevenfigures. I got lucky and ended up with only Sevenfigures at my table. I got lucky again and watched him bust out in 19th. I got lucky yet again and was the best remaining player at the table and had little trouble making it to the final 10. Then it was amazingly tough. I got lucky still one more time and doubled up with pocket Kings early to get a nice stack down to 9. I nursed it for almost an hour down to 5 players with a small chip lead. The other remaining players were: comeonphish, spyhard, missyrules, and N3V3RBluff.... unlucky. They outplayed me and I got 5th for zero dollars.

Right now I figure that I'm negative EV in step 5, but the gigantic overlay in the first 4 steps that will allow me to play level 5 for $400-500 per, on average, still makes it a worthwhile venture. I disagree with Zee about the time making it not worthwhile. Running the numbers with my own estimates, it's still at least as good as 4-tabling the $55's in terms of hourly rate. But hourly rate is meaningless because the variance is out of this world when you consider the step 5 situation... so you just decide to play because it's +EV and hope you have a favorable variance spike over the short run (you can't play hundreds of step 5's without buying into at least step 4's regularly).

One final note: the step 5's will get easier as more $10 players work their way up and some of the experts decide they can't fade the variance. But the step 3's and 4's are going to get a lot tougher when the fish wise up even a little bit. So, I would recommend playing through level 3 as quickly as possible as many times as possible and stock-piling your level 4 and 5 chances until the level 5's soften up.

Just my $0.02

Irieguy

[Myst]

Ok, maybe a 40% success rate could be pushing it from Step 3 to Step 5. But you gotta remember, the top 6 (in Step 3) and the top 8 (in Step 4) advance to the next level. In addition to that, the two finishers who finish either 7th or 8th (in Step 3) or 9th + 10th (in Step 4) get their buyin back. Often times by playing tight, you'll find yourself at the final table. So I dont think a success rate of 25-30% is beyound the realm of possibility to go to Step 5 from Step 3.

With that said, I think only the BEST low limit SNG players should even consider playing in STEPs. Playing Step 5 was the TOUGHEST poker I ever had to play in my life, and have ever personally seen. With such small stacks and ever-increasing blinds, all it takes is one mistake to get knocked out.

But its definitely not impossible Eastbay. Game selection is important when playing Step 5. Sure, I still had Gigabet and hitngo, but I wasnt playing in a full tank of sharks.

For what its worth, I ended up placing 3rd and 5th in my two forays at the STEP 5. So for $162 invested, I got $3600 Do I expect it to be this easy all the time? Of course not. But these results make me optimistic for future forays in the STEPs system.

Im not ready to total abandon my "steady" income in the $30+3 SNGs. I think the best plan is to have two different bankrolls, one for SNG play and one for STEPS play. If you diversify your portfolio this way, you can play with the inherent variance in the Step 5s without destroying your entire bankroll.

At least thats what I am going to do for the next 3 months. Only time will tell whether this is a good move or not.

[El Maximo]

I have no idea how well I will fair in these Steps. Im not hugely optimistic about how profitable they are. For me, Im giving them a try for few reasons. I can play the steps at my own pace. I like to throw some money into MTTs but never have enough time to devote 4-5 hours to completing one. I have 250% ROI on MTTs and think the Steps will be a good way to help improve my play. I get an opportunity to play against better players as I move up the steps. This has to be worth something. There is no better way to improve than to play against stronger players. I just buyin to 4-8 step 1s each week. Im tracking them and only time will tell how I will do. If I get blown out I just go back to grinding the low level SnGs.

[imcastleman]

Here's my two cents:

If your assumptions are correct(they aren't!!) that you can maintain a 40% win rate at Step I and Step II, then let’s assume you can advance from Step III 40% and Step IV 50%, and that your long term ROI in Step V is 10%(this is probably high), then your hourly rates(playing one at a time and 1.5 hours per step tourney) would be as follows:

Step I: $10.26/hour
Step II: $15.74/hour
Step III: $8.05/hour
Step IV: $22.59/hour
Step V: $71.10/hour

If your ROI in Step V is -5%, then your hourly rates would be:

Step I: $8.20/hour
Step II: $10.54/hour
Step III: -$5.28/hour
Step IV: -$12.97/hour
Step V: -$35.58/hour

It is going to cost a Step I player $7,500 to play 20 Step V tournaments. I am on Eastbay’s side here. Stay away from these tournaments, they will kill you. I have played about 70 of the Step V’s so far and my ROI is around 5%. It is very difficult to be able to withstand the swings. I lost the first 11 I played and then I went on a small winning streak, and then maintained my bankroll for about 2 days, then a small win streak and now I have lost the last 12 I have played.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
It is going to cost a Step I player $7,500 to play 20 Step V tournaments.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you take this as true, playing them is +EV even if your STEP 5 ROI is -60%. Of course, the variance is gonna be [censored] huge and socking my whole bankroll into this would be a baaaaaad idea.

[The Yugoslavian]

Stay away from STEP 5? Don't you want all of us fishies there to donate to your bankroll? /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

I mean, any sub-optimal competition for you at that level is good competition, right?

[Myst]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's my two cents:

If your assumptions are correct(they aren't!!) that you can maintain a 40% win rate at Step I and Step II, then let’s assume you can advance from Step III 40% and Step IV 50%, and that your long term ROI in Step V is 10%(this is probably high), then your hourly rates(playing one at a time and 1.5 hours per step tourney) would be as follows:

Step I: $10.26/hour
Step II: $15.74/hour
Step III: $8.05/hour
Step IV: $22.59/hour
Step V: $71.10/hour

If your ROI in Step V is -5%, then your hourly rates would be:

Step I: $8.20/hour
Step II: $10.54/hour
Step III: -$5.28/hour
Step IV: -$12.97/hour
Step V: -$35.58/hour

It is going to cost a Step I player $7,500 to play 20 Step V tournaments. I am on Eastbay’s side here. Stay away from these tournaments, they will kill you. I have played about 70 of the Step V’s so far and my ROI is around 5%. It is very difficult to be able to withstand the swings. I lost the first 11 I played and then I went on a small winning streak, and then maintained my bankroll for about 2 days, then a small win streak and now I have lost the last 12 I have played.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your figures are based on single tabling the STEPS 1-2, which I WOULDNT do. I would definitely 4-table these, and then switch off to 2-Tabling STEP 3 and STEP 4. With that in mind, I think Step 3 is ALOT tougher in my opinion than Step 4, because only the top 6 advance.

Again, I understand the inherent variance in these tournaments, but I also know that STEPS is +EV. I would NEVER buy in directly to these tournaments - I understand that it can be killer on your bankroll.

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't be surprised if this took over 5 hours on average.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say closer to 7 or 8.

[adanthar]

Bump because I'm genuinely interested and am now 1 for 6 in getting here...heheh.

Now for more datamining.

[assron]

I dont see players who arent used to playing the $109 or $215 games having much success on the bubble of a step 5, it's a different game than you'll find on a 30+3 table, and while it's definitely beatable, there's a learning curve to it that you probably want to figure out moving up the 50+5 or the 100+9 tables instead of on a $1065 table.

Personally, I gave it a shot, but I found that the investment just wasnt worth it compared to playing a cash SNG -- even the higher tables are stuffed with weak players and tightwads who cant deal with the quickly rising blinds and arent willing to play a variety of hands early on to pull up their stacks. I'd much rather play one table at a time and collect my cash than be forced to roll the dice on four tables. I think the only time-productive way to play the steps is to buy in at step 4, which is easier than hell to beat... I'm talking like 75% move up or stay at the same level easily -- you only have to find one big gamble, get the call, then stay out of the game. The lower limit players who have made their way up cant wait to make that call for you. By the same token, it's easy for a higher limit player to forget how to play the lower limit style that sometimes takes over... I've found myself mixing up my table selection after getting my ass kicked on step 2 after being sent down (shoved QQ when folded around to me in the SB on the bubble in a step 4, probably shouldnt have as I was going to make it through anyways, but boredom got the best of me) A lot of the crap I can get away with on the higher tables just doesnt work down there.

[Amid Cent]

Thanks for the great analysis. Here are my thoughts...

It costs $12 ($11+1) to enter a Step 1. If you cash at least one time in a Step 5, that's a minimum of $2400. That means that starting at Step 1, you can go through the all the Step tournaments 200 TIMES and only need to cash once to make it profitable. And that's assuming a 4th place finish. If you take the average of the top 4 cash spots in a Step 5 tournament, you can play over 400 Step 1's and be +EV.

The biggest problem is the time commitment. For someone like me who only gets to play a few hours in the evenings, it will take me about 2 weeks just to make it into a Step 5 /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Good luck. Wish me lots of fish when I play my first Step 5.

[Runner Runner]

I think these STEPS tournaments should be taken for what they are worth. They represent the opportunity to make a big score with a small investment. They provide an extra overlay because of the poor play and decision making made by players who havent made the necessary strategy adjustments. Think of them like this: you are playing a big multi-table tournament where entrants have won their way in through a different form of poker and most aren't good tournament players. Then when the tournament gets down to the last two tables, 4/5ths of the players bring in a hired pro to play the end of the tournament for them. As discussed earlier, the overlay you get at the beginning of the tournament clearly exceeds the disadvantage at the end. For those who regularly grind the lower limit sng's, these tournaments represent an excellent opportunity to make some serious money. I regularly play the 20 and 30 sng's and 2/4 or 3/6 ring games, but I am definitely going to parlay some of my winnings into trying some of these as a substitute for the occasionaly MTT.

[adanthar]

So, after a couple of weeks of on and off Steps (interrupted by finals and planes and whatnot), my still statistically insignificant results are:

Step 1: 17 played, 9 Step 2 seats
Step 2: 11 played, 3 Step 3 seats, 2 Step 2 rerolls, 1 $30
Step 3: 4 played, 3 Step 4 seats, 1 Step 3 reroll
Step 4: 3 played, 2 Step 5 seats

This is running pretty good and includes one Step 4 bubble suckout (somewhat balanced by the other Step 4 where kings ran into aces)...but I'm finding the last two of these to be so weak tight on and just before the bubble that stealing in position with two cards will almost always get a short stack in.

I'm now convinced that a bunch of midlimit 2+2'ers I'm thinking of could beat this structure easily and for more money (though a hell of a lot more variance) than the $30's or even $50's. If I can play a Step 3 or 4 and have the gut feeling I'm going to make it in every time I hit the bubble only mildly shortstacked, so can eastbay/Irieguy/AleoMagus/et al.

[Irieguy]

Your numbers look about how I would expect. I've played about half as many as you and made it to one step 5. I managed to blow the chip lead 5-handed and get 5th in the last step.

There's no question at all that they are hugely +EV. It's just that the time investment (if you start at step 1), or the bankroll requirement (if you start at step 2 or above) is too large for me to fade.

The one thing that all SNG players have in common is that we hate variance and large bankroll requirements. That's why you won't see a lot of love for them on this forum. A 200-500% ROI is very attainable in the steps... but there's no such thing as a low-risk, high-reward situation. Not in poker, and not in life.

Irieguy

PS- I WOULD, however, be interested if somebody wanted to back me into entering the step-3's or higher. I'd even do it for as little as 40%. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

PPS- By the way, I would also happily back a few 2+2ers in the same enterprise for 60% if I had the bankroll... unfortunately, I don't.

[Jman28]

I think starting at a step three would be pretty +EV.

You could probably get a few posters to back you, even if it's a split between a group of people (I'd be interested in putting up like 20%, I think. I'd need to sleep on it.)

-Jman28

[WarDekar]

I would think if you could get a group of people all "buying" shares in eachother it'd work out. A lot of pros do this for big tourneys...