Short before the final table

PL HE tourney, 12 players left, top 9 get paid. Blinds just moved up to 3k/6k, I have 27k. Total chip amount: 780k, all players at my table have only about 200k together. Nobody is extremly shortstacked, but at my table there are 2 other players (to my left) with stacks about my size.


We just lost a player and got a new one from the other table. This player (stack ~ 50k) is seated next to the blind, looks at his hand and raises pot (21k) UTG. Next 2 players muck and I (button) look down to see AJo. The raiser is a regular in this casino and we know each other pretty well. I think a little and recognize that he doesn´t feel confident at all with his hand. Because of my read of him I can knock out AA-99, AK, AQ and probably even AJ and KQ (although he raised UTG). He can have any Ax, any Kx(s), any other pair and maybe even total garbage (maybe he just lost a big pot at the other table and was steaming. When he sat down he gave the dealer a not extremly friendly look)


If I muck, I´m left with 27k and if I don´t get a chance/hand to raise before I´m in the BB (3 hands) I won´t be in position to make a full pot sized raise.


If I call and bet/call all in on the flop, we will have a showdown 100%. He won´t muck a hand in a 50k pot for 6k more. Worse that that: There are 2 player yet to act, and they might all an 21k bet easier than a 27k bet. (If the pot is 3-handed, the other players will probably check it down)


If I raise, it´s more lickely that we will be heads up. No way that he will fold.


What would you do?


Regards


Martin

If you're really that certain you have the best hand, then I see two choices. Go all-in now to help ensure that the blinds fold, or fold and be looking to limp into 9th place money before taking any risks.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Martin,


I don't understand why there is a question here. Against every hand that you mention, except for small pairs and AJ, your AJ is at least a 60% vs. 40% favorite hot and cold.


So I think that going all-in is the obvious choice.


The only thing to weigh is whether ninth place money is interesting and what the structure of the prizes is. My guess is that ninth place money is not interesting. But if there is a big psychological boost to finishing in the money, maybe it is worth making the lower EV play.

I couldn't disagree with mdlm more.


I think if you put a single chip in this pot you are a tool. Why risk your whole stack on what is at best a very slight edge, and if he does have the goods you are fucked?


In general terms a 60-40 edge is never good enough for your whole stack, especially if are near the money. Conserve those chips for when you either have a hand or you can be the aggressor. I'd much rather raise with 45 than call allin with AJo.

Mr. Peterson,


I'm a newbie so I may have some basic concept wrong.


Let me start with something basic: Let's say Martin has AJo (which is what he had) and his opponent has Ax (which is one of the hands that his opponent could have had according to Martin).


Firt question: Do you agree that going all-in is a positive EV bet?


Also, what is a "tool"?

In my opinion and experience, I would always rather raise with $18,000 (the amount you would have left if you don't get a hand to play before you go through the blinds) than calling for $21,000. Even if your read is right that the player is a little weak, an Ace w/ a 10 - 2 is the only hand you hope that he has. AK or AQ your dominated, Aces (your dead), KK,QQ,JJ and you have a 3 outer, and 10's on down you're a dog. I think you muck and try to get into a situation where you have more leverage. If you call I think you are just looking for an excuse to play such a trap hand by justifying it with what might be an excellent read, or it might be a mistake.


But then again, its just my opinion.

Different Martin in case you were confused.

Thanks to all for your input. These were the results:


I reraised all in, SB thought for a pretty long time but finally mucked (don´t know what he had), BB mucked, raiser called.


He turned over 33. I didn´t improve and went out 12th. No problem with that, still I thought about it while driving home, wheather going all in in a situation where yuo are either a big fav or a very small dog was that smart.


Regards


Martin

Yes, it's a positive bet if you have AJ vs A-rag. If you absolutely know that he has A-rag, then it'd be a push in for me. Not knowing, I muck.

Yo're a good favourite vs A-rag, big dog vs AQ/AK and a dog to any pair. fuggedabaddit


Totally agree with Mr Pete on this one.

Mr. Peterson wrote:

In general terms a 60-40 edge is never good enough for your whole stack, especially if are near the money.


I couldn't disagree with Mr. Peterson more.


If you are in or near the money, then there are (some very few) times you should probably forego a 60:40 edge. And, of course, if your read of his hand makes you a 60:40 favorite if you're right, and a big dog if you're wrong, then you'd better be VERY sure your read is good before continuing.


However, if there is reason to know beyond doubt that your edge is 60:40, and you pass it up, you are almost certainly making a mistake. And I don't care how good a player you are either. It's still a mistake.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

This comes up time and again.


The question as stated is that Martin has a confident read that he is in front (PS I haven't looked at the results yet). If you want to fold because you're not sure that you're in front, you're not answering the same question.


While it is of course better, in most circumstances, to get your money in as the raiser, you can't afford to give up such a big edge.


Andy.