Roulette Prediction

[vine]

I am trying to find someone who can verify some complicated math for me. The algorythms are regarding prediction of roulette. an example is below:


The following mathematics deals with the X,Y and Z axis within the confines of a Roulette Wheel enviroment.

Y axis¦N1¦*COS(a)-(mg)*COS(a)=0

X axis¦N2¦+¦N1¦*SIN(a)+¦mg¦*sin(@)*COS(Y)=m*¦@ centre)=m*V^2/R=m*[Y')^2]*R

V=Linear Velocity
R=Ball Track Radius
@=Centripedal acceleration

Z axis¦Ffr¦+¦Air Drag¦=m*¦@tan¦=m*Y''*R

Friction Force a This is negative as it is opposing the Z axis

Air Drag is the force that is equal too:

¦Air Drag¦= - 0.5*CD*P*TT*r^2*V^2 (TT is pie) this is also a minus value!

CD is Drag Coefficiaent
P is AIr density
r is the balls Radius

Z axis is always tangentially directed.

------------------------------------------

After some very simple Algerbraic Transformation and incorporating the above formulas we get the next differential equation:

Y''=(a+air*R)*(Y')^2=b*SIN(Y)+c*COS(Y)+d (*)

Where

a is the determining friction factor(Ie 0.004)

Air =-[0.5*CD*P*TT*r^2*V^2]/m

b=a*g*SIN(@)/R

c=b/a

d=a.g.COS(@)SIN(a)+1)/(R.COS(@)

The ball movement sters to this equation only till the moment when it loses the contact with the vertical side of the ball track or:

[N2]=0

So the Drop off condition is:

[(Y')^2]*R+g*COS(@)*tg(a)-g*SIN(@)*COS(Y)=0 (**)

Now lets introduce some real values into the equations and see the predicted results:

TT=3.14
g=9.807
R=0.4
a=16.7.TT/180 inner slope of stator
CD=0.47
r=0.5.21.10^-3 Radius of ball
P=1.22
m=9.10^-3 Mass of Ball
(a)= 0.004 Friction factor for rolling between the ball and the track
@=0.8 grad Tilt Angle

t0= 0 sec
t1=30 seconds

These values determin the time interval of 30 sec since the start of spinning!

I also calcualted the time the ball loses contact with the vertical wall of the ball track, this is when(**) becomes true!

Time till drop off is 17.04 seconds

By this time the ball passes 4935 Grad or 13.7 revolutions from start point!

At this moment the ball has a velocity of 2.7 Rads/Sec or 0.43 Revs per/Sec!



Anyone on here a math prof? Or can help, just need a quick look over it to see what you think.
Cheers

[Dynasty]

I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt that this is a serious question. If so, you should send a PM to BruceZ and ask him to take a look at the post.

[vine]

Thanks for benefit of the doubt Dynasty,

It is a serious question, i will PM as you suggested.

Vine

[SmileyEH]

If you could write your equations up in like microsoft word equation editor or something it would really improve the readability. I'm sure a lot of members of the forums would be able to get something from this, however fanciful /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

-SmileyEH

[eastbay]

If you want a serious answer, you would first have to convince someone that what you are trying to do is worthwhile by stating your goal (and "roulette prediction" is not good enough). So far, it doesn't appear so.

eastbay

[vine]

Hi,
Ok a bit more info if it helps.
Apologies about the formatting of the equations, they are not mine and I pasted from an old manual.

I am researching for a book on this subject. If you think it is impossible please do a search on Norman Packard, Doyne farmer or Edward O Thorpe before you read on as I’ve only skimmer over it here.

Roulette prediction is possible in 4 ways:

Bias tracking - physical conditions of a wheel (normally either tilted very slightly, or wear and tear) cause some sections to have winning numbers more frequent that a random distribution. These days’ wheels are checked, adjusted and moved often; so bias tracking is very unlikely now.

Dealer signature - It is believed that a skilled croupier can place a roulette ball close to a number they are aiming for. Or during a long shift they get into an unconscious rhythm through "muscle memory", this again leads to hitting one area of a wheel more often than random.

Visual tracking - This is where a very skilled player can judge the speed of the ball and the position and speed of the wheel, coupling this with a low scatter (from the obstacles on the track) they can estimate the area a the ball will come to rest, usually about 3 or 4 revolutions before the ball drops from the track onto the rotor. Again if you don't believe this is possible search for Laurance Scott or Pierre Basieux.

Computer prediction - either using simple timings to estimate where and when the ball and wheel is at the time the ball loses critical momentum and drops from the track. Or by using Newtonian Physics but only if all parameters have been entered into the equations, which is impractical. There are various other ways that have been tried including neural networks and look up tables.

While all of this is incredibly hard to do, it can and has been done. The house edge in European roulette is 2.7%. If you could only predict a section of 4 pockets out of 37 where the ball is unlikely to fall into you have already swung the odds in you favour.


I have met with modern day protagonists using these methods during my research and these equations are from one in particular. I need to confirm if they are mathematically correct before I can do any more on that section of the book.

If interested in this work check out "The Eudaemonic Pie" by Thomas A Bass (called Newtonian casino in the UK).

I hope that helps explain why I posted the equations.

Cheers

[gaming_mouse]

Someone posted this link a while ago, too. Using miniature computers and laser technology to predict roulette:

link (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=857&ncid=757&e=10&u=/nm/20041204/od_uk_nm/oukoe_britain_gambling)

[vine]

Yes, that investigation is all finished now. I've got plenty on that already.
Really need someone to point me in the right direction to get the equations checked out.

[gaming_mouse]

Yeah,

I was just throwing that out there. The only person on this forum I know of who might be able to help you is BruceZ, as someone else already suggested.

But I think you might have better luck with a physics forum or something like that. At the very least, post in "Probability."

HTH,
gm

[vine]

Thanks for tip, i'm trying a couple of maths forums too.
I'll see how it goes.

Thanks

[slavic]

For some reason the only practical application I can see is getting your legs broken.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi,
Ok a bit more info if it helps.
Apologies about the formatting of the equations, they are not mine and I pasted from an old manual.

I am researching for a book on this subject.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh.

What I meant was: What is the predictive method for which solving these equations are a necessary and sufficient component for playing advantage roulette. Then there might be some incentive to validate the work.

At first glance they appear reasonable, but also useless without additional information (which is unknowable without additional difficult methods) like initial conditions and a relationship to the rotating wheel.

I think it is the common view of advantage roulette experts that solving an equation of motion is simply the wrong approach to the prediction problem. There is no need for a differential description of the motion of the ball - all that is required is a correlation between observables and outcomes. There needn't be any physics required at all to obtain that relationship.

eastbay

[vine]

Hi Eastbay,

I'm pretty sure the following is still not what you are asking but I’ll give it a go anyway.
You asked, "What is the predictive method for which solving these equations are a necessary and sufficient component for playing advantage roulette"
This is exactly what I am unsure of and why I wanted to know if the equations made sense.

The player that supplied me with the equations said he has used them as part of initial work to calculate all of the physical factors acting on the ball and wheel. These equations are just a sample. So the equations were (apparently) used to build an ideal model of the physical system. These formed the base for any calculations the computer did on an actual wheel.

I and most people I have met with that are involved in roulette agree that solving equations of motion on its own doesn't work.

I'll detail how you actually use a device.
Most computer aided play I have come across works like this:
The ideal wheel and casino conditions are needed 1st, The dealer should have a strong steady throw, the casino should call no more bets late, the wheel should have un-scalloped pockets and high sides and most ideally a non-random drop point (where the ball leaves the track).
If these and other conditions exist the player will input wheel and ball timings into the computer. Calibration followed by:

Every time the ball passes a fixed point you enter the timing, this allows the computer to work out the balls speed. Once one revolution reaches a set speed (this speed is known to be when the ball is rolling true, not skipping at all in the track). The computer can work out the deceleration of the ball and so knows when it will reach the drop point.
You then enter when the zero passes the same fixed point twice. This allows the computer to calculate which number will be directly under the ball when it drops.
Most of the time the ball won't end up in that pocket but it gives you a starting point. A histogram is charted showing the scatter distance (in number of pockets) between the original number and the final resting place of the ball. This is done for spins in both directions and for each drop point (practically this just means recording spins and entering final result).
From this you get a good idea which section of the wheel the ball will end up in.

However I am aware that simple timing devices can be used to get similar results, so that is why I wanted to know if equations were at least real (even if not necessarily relevant for using in a device). I was unconvinced about how they are used and unconvinced about the player that supplied them.