Casino Poker vs. Blackjack

[CNoyes]

How does low-limit cardroom poker and blackjack (w/counting) compare in winnings? Which has higher EV? Which would have bigger swings?

[Iceman]

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How does low-limit cardroom poker and blackjack (w/counting) compare in winnings? Which has higher EV? Which would have bigger swings?

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In low-limit cardroom poker, the rake and dealer tips take a huge bite out of your win rate. With a rake of 10% to $4, a $1-2 dealer tip on each pot you win, and maybe a $1 jackpot drop per pot, it's difficult to win more than a small amount in low-limit holdem unless your opponents are absolute idiots. 2 BB/hr is usually the maximum earn rate in cardroom low-limit play, and 1 BB/hr will be more realistic if your opponents aren't horrible, or if you're at a casino with a high rake. A strong player in a 3-6 game might have a win rate of $10/hr with a standard deviation of $60/hr. To make real money in poker you have to either play online (where the games are 2-3 times faster and you can play 4 tables at once), play no-limit, or move up to 10-20 or higher.

Blackjack has become much tougher for card counters over time. Some casinos now pay only 6:5 on blackjack, bar midshoe entry, or have automatic shuffling machines that shuffle every hand; even the ones that don't do those things usually use 6-8 deck shoes, don't deal down very far, force midshoe entrants to only bet the minimum, and will give intense heat to even a pretty small counter who's winning. Under normal game conditions, you should only expect a win rate of around .5%-1.5 depending on how skilled a counter you are and what bet spread you can get away with. If you played 100 hands per hour, varying your bets from $10-40, your win rate might be $10/hr and your standard deviation might be $200/hr. To make real money in blackjack, you need to bet much higher, which requires a huge bankroll, and also requires that you need to be a very strong counter capable of disguising you play, and that you have access to beatable games.