The Payoff Thread

[zokbarjazz]

Everyone has those nights. You know, the nights where every time you bet the flop and the turn with TPTK (or TPGK), you get raised (or check-raised) on the turn.
My problem is what to do at that point. I'm finding that PT stats only go so far, especially since the players at party 3/6 have seemed quite aggressive lately. Folding when raised by a passive player is one thing, but calling down a reasonable player with aggressive stats just because they're "aggressive" doesn't seem to be a good strategy. Against a reasonable player, is the consensus to assume you're beat, fold to the turn raise, next hand? Then won't reasonable players start taking shots at you, seeing your willingness to fold the turn to a raise?

I remember a hand from one of GoT's reports where his roommate had AK, flop comes ace-high, uncoordinated. Heads-up, TheDude bets, bets, bets, gets raised on the river, and GoT says it's an obvious fold. This was 15/30, but does everyone else agree that it's so clear cut?

Impart your collective wisdom upon me.

Thanks.

Jeremy

[sthief09]

not to be a nit, but that was a different roommate. it wasn't The Dude.

you really have to post specific examples. most of the time though, you need a read to make a "big laydown"

[zokbarjazz]

[ QUOTE ]
you really have to post specific examples. most of the time though, you need a read to make a "big laydown"

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Here's why: take the situation that GoT posted. It happens all the time. It happens on the turn even more. It happens all the time from players that just sat down and you've never seen before. Just calling down is distatrous if you're beat a significant percent of the time. And against a random pool of Party 3/6 goons, you're going to be beat a lot. You really think it's a "big laydown" to fold to a raise with one pair on the expensive streets? (serious question)

[sthief09]

I posted 2 hands last weekend, one where I thought I should've folded but didn't, and one where I did fold and was confident it was right. the consensus was that paying off was appropriate in both spots. in general, you're getting between 9-1 and 15-1 to pay off on the river, and 5-1 to 9-1 to call down from the turn. when you call and lose, you lose 1 or 2 BB. when you fold the winner, you've lost a pot. you have a wide margin for error in calling, but a small one in folding. it's usually best to err on the side of calling unless it's really obvious you're beat. if you have a read, then you can be more confident in your decisions.

[MaxPower]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you really have to post specific examples. most of the time though, you need a read to make a "big laydown"

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Here's why: take the situation that GoT posted. It happens all the time. It happens on the turn even more. It happens all the time from players that just sat down and you've never seen before. Just calling down is distatrous if you're beat a significant percent of the time. And against a random pool of Party 3/6 goons, you're going to be beat a lot. You really think it's a "big laydown" to fold to a raise with one pair on the expensive streets? (serious question)

[/ QUOTE ]

It depends on the size of the pot. If it is a small pot, it is not a big laydown. If it is a large pot, it is a big laydown.

In addition to the size of the pot there are a lot of other factors to consider. You can't just fold every time or call down every time. You need to play poker. Calling is probably correct a lot more than you think.

That is why you need to post specific hands.

[ErrantNight]

everything that's been said...

i would also add that your image on the table can be important, even against a table comprised of mainly fish. a lot of lags aren't necessarily maniacs or inattentive, they may in fact play fairly reasonable poker aside from being too loose (see: me!).

If you've been playing a lot of ABC hands, doing a decent amount of raising, by coincidence or not leading the betting a lot on the early rounds, consider a little variance. this advice might be totally wrong for your hypothetical scenario (hence advice, give specific examples), but look/think back at some of the examples you have in mind, maybe a c/r would have been better here or there, have you been a little too loose/aggressive yourself? are you winning/losing an amount to be noticeable to your table mates?

i've probably jumped way off the deep end without much information, but i found in the past that when i was experiencing the situation you've described, i had usually slipped into some lazy, inattentive poker, and while not massacring myself, i wasn't playing a very solid overall game, leading to scenarios where thinking players of the good and bad variety could pick me off without much problem.

and i do apologize if this was completely unnecessary of me :-)

[zokbarjazz]

Thanks for the replies. Now that I'm home from work, here are a couple hands. All comments welcome and encouraged.

40 hands with BB, seems reasonable. AF by streets is 4/1/.5.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif. CO posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (5.33 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3.66 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.66 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.66 BB

Next hand: SB is a fish with $10 left. Not enough hands with UTG for a read.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, MP3 folds, SB calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, SB calls $2 (All-In).

River: (7.33 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 9.33 BB

[spamuell]

Both of these hands are fine ignoring BB's AF by street stats because you have 40 hands on him.

[ErrantNight]

i think both look good from here