First 19k hands at Party 3/6, find the leaks!

[CostaRicaBill]

While I have been a winning 3/6 player for the past 6 months, I have only recently been able to use poker tracker to see my true win rate. I have about 19k hands in my database from the past 2 months of play and was hoping you guys could point out any potential leaks.

If it matters, over about the past 2000 hands I have been on a pretty bad downswing, and in that short time my win rate dropped from about 1.75 to 1.07. Could I just be running bad, or am I just a mediocre player with some big adjustments to make?

19k hands - Party 3/6

VPIP:---------------11.65
VPIPfSB:------------13.10
Folded SBtosteal:---86.11
Folded BBtosteal:---77.14
Folded BBtostealHU:-71.77
Att.tosteal:--------16.92
Won$whensawflop:----34.00

bb/100:-------------1.07

went to sd:---------31.02
won$atsd:-----------57.78
PFR:----------------7.75

first action after pfr:
raise:--------------8.53
bet:----------------58.43
call:---------------5.32
check:--------------9.56
c/r:----------------.61
fold:---------------5.32
noflopnoaction:-----12.22

Aggro stats:
PF:-----------------1.44
Flop:---------------3.23
Turn:---------------2.44
River:--------------1.51
Total:--------------2.00
Total minus PF------2.20


folded to riverbet: 36.49

[cab4656]

You are way too tight. My 13.5 (but steadily climbing) VPIP at 3/6 doesn't make me cry as much anymore.

[MHarris]

You're way too tight. Most of the better players who post here have a VPIP of 16-18.

The drop in BB/100 is pretty normal, given the sample size. You're probably running at least a little bad and should make some adjustments. Over those 200 hands, you've also probably been victimized by more than your share of suckouts.

I PM'ed you too. Get back to me when you get a chance.

[bisonbison]

Bill, when do you usually play? Because you're very tight.

My VPIP is typically between 14-15 in the Party 3/6 games, and I rarely find or stay in games where I need to be tighter.

[CostaRicaBill]

These numbers reflect play during mostly peak, weeknight hours. As of late, I have been playing during the day if the games aren't too tight, so I don't think table selection is the problem. Looks like I need to start adding some hands.

I didn't realize VPIP: 11.65% was way lower than optimal. I'm new to PT, so I hope you aren't referring to my Saw Flop All Hands stat, which is 15.78%

Other than my preflop rockness, do any of my other stats stand out as potential leaks? How does my aggression factor and Won $ At SD look? I've been getting hammered with suckouts recently and starting to feel like I don't know what the hell I'm doing.

Thanks

[bisonbison]

postflop aggression looks within reasonable bounds.

You're gonna need to post more hands (I saw you posted one yesterday, which is a start).

As for the tightness: a lot of 3/6 hands get posted here. Keep an eye out for hands you wouldn't be playing, and see if the concensus is that it's a good or bad preflop play.

[CostaRicaBill]

Thanks guys, I'm going to try to start posting more hands.

In the meantime, I think I need to add more hands in late position like low suited connectors and hands like Q9s after a few limpers. I could probably also start adding more Axs from early and middle positions. Also, if I don't raise AJo, KQo or KJo in early position, I usually just fold them, should I just be calling here if the game is loose and pretty passive?

Does my W$SD (57%) suggest that I should be calling down more? I think this used to be one of my big problems as I always assumed that I was beat when faced with a lot of aggression.

-Bill

[sthief09]

you're not limping nearly enough. pocket pairs and suited aces are your friends

[JimRivett]

Hello Bill,

You may be a better player than you think and your leaks may be small. You know I'm no expert at interpreting poker tracker stats, however the most important stat - bb/100, says that you are a winning player, that says a lot right there.

Others have commented on your VPIP stat and while mine is higher (14%) I wouldn't be too concerned about it. I can remember a long time ago, before there were separate forums on 2+2, that Mason made a post which contained the words "you can't play too tight before the flop", (this was just part of his post and it contained more than just those few words).

I think posting some hands would be a great way of receiving feedback, you can then decide how and where to apply these comments.

Regards, Jim

[sthief09]

your W$SD is probably a reflection of your preflop pickiness. when you don't play any marginally good hands, you're going to win at showdown a lot

[sthief09]

rough graph of VPIP vs. profit:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>



p /\
r / \
o / \
f / \
i / \
t -/----------\--- 0 profit
/ \
0 16 40

VP$IP

</pre><hr />

conclusion: of course you can play too tight. telling him not to worry about his VP$IP is TERRIBLE, TERRIBLE, TERRIBLE advice. he's too tight and could be winning a lot more if he added some hands.

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
you're not limping nearly enough. pocket pairs and suited aces are your friends

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you found that limping with suited aces is profitable in most games and situations?

At 3-6 I have only been playing suited aces in LP with a few callers already. They seem to be trouble hands in EP.

[sthief09]

Dynasty once said something like, "if you're in a game where you can't limp with A2s or 22 UTG, then you should change tables"

I don't think this applies for all games, but it certainly does for a loose and semi-passive (preflop) game like Party 3/6

[JimRivett]

Could you explain how you came up with that graph and why you think it's accurate.

Am I to interpret from it that VPIP of 16% is optimal?

Here's some of my stats.
2/4 26,000 hands VPIP 14.02 2.67 bb/100
3/6 26,000 hands VPIP 13.76 1.77 bb/100

I have to be honest, I can't imagine how I could play more pre flop hands.

Bill asked for input on his game, he is already a winning player, my advice was not to worry about too much about his VPIP %, post some hands and digest the input he receives.

Relax, have a diet coke, and don't forget I would like to see how you came up with that graph.

Jim

[dave44]

Roughly, the graph says 16% of hands are profitable. If you play more than 16%, you are playing some -EV hands so your profit drops. If you play less than 16%, you are not playing some +EV hands so your profit drops. Of course, it does not look perfectly precise, but gives a general idea.

11% means he is folding hands pre-flop that would show a profit.

[sthief09]

the numbers are somewhat arbitrary. depending on postflop skill and style, you could have a varying optimal VPIP. 16 seems to be good for most people. some do well over 20. all I know is that 11 and chance is not optimal. my "graph" was just a sketch, but it does show that it's suboptimal to have a VP$IP so low. I don't know what your numbers are supposed to show me. you haven't played a lot of hands and you're beating, but not crushing those games.

I don't think it makes any sense to be satisfied as a marginal winner, as you are suggesting he do. you should always want to be better and win more. his and your VP$IP's are suboptimal. you two aren't making as much as you could by loosening up

[wuarhg]

I have the same problem, Although i'm working on my VP$IP and PFR and they are going up now since i've started looking into openraising more and limping or raising behind weak openlimpers. Something I never do at 3/6 is limp A9s-A2s and 88-22 UTG. I'm definately going to start to look into these hands, but I really don't like the situation if a TA-A raises behind me and I end up heads-up against him.

Any thoughts? I consider myself having pretty good table selection.

[MaxPower]

Jim,

I don't know if 16% is precisely the right number, but sthiefs graph is a decent approximation. I believe that most of the best players at these limits have a VP$IP of about 17-19%. The reason I believe this, besides the fact that I play this way, is that I believe that these players hardly ever make pre-flop errors and are still able to play that many hands.

I have a theory that that the difference between those in the 17-19% range and those who are much lower is mostly due to play in the blinds. I think some of these people play too tight in the blinds and that can have a large effect on your win rate.

I also think that win rates are very inaccurate based on the numbers of hands that most people have at any level in pokertracker. For instance, I have 46,156 hands at Party 3/6. My VP$IP is 18.96, my pre-flop raise % is 8.34 and my win rate is 3.33BB/100. However, even with 46,000 hands there is a large confidence interval around my win rate and it could be significantly lower in reality.

I would like to see CostaRicaBill's VP$IP by position to see how he plays the blinds.

One thing I noticed in CostaRicaBill's stats is that he does not attempt to steal very often. My percentage is close to 30%. Perhaps that is a little high, but I don't think so.

[lu_hawk]

[ QUOTE ]
I have the same problem, Although i'm working on my VP$IP and PFR and they are going up now since i've started looking into openraising more and limping or raising behind weak openlimpers. Something I never do at 3/6 is limp A9s-A2s and 88-22 UTG. I'm definately going to start to look into these hands, but I really don't like the situation if a TA-A raises behind me and I end up heads-up against him.

Any thoughts? I consider myself having pretty good table selection.

[/ QUOTE ]

Limping A2s UTG is going a little too far. But if you aren't playing the medium pocket pairs UTG then that is too tight. It's correct to play extremely tight UTG, I think players with low VPIP don't realize how much they can loosen up in late position and especially on the button.

[wuarhg]

[ QUOTE ]
Limping A2s UTG is going a little too far. But if you aren't playing the medium pocket pairs UTG then that is too tight. It's correct to play extremely tight UTG, I think players with low VPIP don't realize how much they can loosen up in late position and especially on the button.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've started playing alot more hands in LMP, CO and on the Button. My VP$IP was also originally 11-11.5% in the beginning of my 3/6 career. Something I started doing alot more is raising alot on the button if someone open-limped to remove the blinds and putting pressure on the limper, I like it! Anyway, how low can you go in the blinds? Hands like 64s, J7s and speculative hands like that?

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
Something I never do at 3/6 is limp A9s-A2s and 88-22 UTG. I'm definately going to start to look into these hands, but I really don't like the situation if a TA-A raises behind me and I end up heads-up against him.

Any thoughts? I consider myself having pretty good table selection.

[/ QUOTE ]

If your table selection is good, I think you should be limping any pocket pair from any position. They are so easy to play... flop a set, print $. No set, fold the vast majority of the time.

Ax suited is a bit harder, at least for me. I am struggling to make these hands profitable, and I've tightened up considerably with these hands in early position.

[MaxPower]

[ QUOTE ]
I have the same problem, Although i'm working on my VP$IP and PFR and they are going up now since i've started looking into openraising more and limping or raising behind weak openlimpers. Something I never do at 3/6 is limp A9s-A2s and 88-22 UTG. I'm definately going to start to look into these hands, but I really don't like the situation if a TA-A raises behind me and I end up heads-up against him.

Any thoughts? I consider myself having pretty good table selection.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are not going to break the bank with Axs in early position even in a loose passive game. I do think its worth playing if the game is loose passive.

The pocket pairs are much better hands for the typical party 3/6 games. Even if there is a raise behind you it is Ok as long as most pots are multiway.

The pocket pairs do well in the type of game that is very aggressive on the flop because you will almost always collect enough bets to make your set profitable. Most Party games are like this.

[JimRivett]

You claim your numbers are "somewhat arbitrary" and concede that you could have a "varying" optimal VPIP up to over 20%, but know 11% is below optimal, I'm sorry you still haven't convinced me.

Let's just say, and remember I'm not buying into your 16% number, that for whatever reason 16% is optimal, however depending upon your game over 20% can be optimal (your words not mine), a difference of +4 percent points above what you feel is optimal. Now based upon that couldn't a VPIP% of -4 percent points below the alleged optimal 16% also, depending upon your game, be acceptable?

You also ask what my numbers are suppose to show, well thay show that I've played over 50,000 hands with an (average) VPIP of below 14% and I may not as you say be crushing the games but I think I'm doing OK, perhaps or just maybe, a little better than most?

Jim

btw perhaps the secret to this discussion lie in your words "depending on postflop skill and style."

[lu_hawk]

[ QUOTE ]
Jim,

I don't know if 16% is precisely the right number, but sthiefs graph is a decent approximation. I believe that most of the best players at these limits have a VP$IP of about 17-19%. The reason I believe this, besides the fact that I play this way, is that I believe that these players hardly ever make pre-flop errors and are still able to play that many hands.

I have a theory that that the difference between those in the 17-19% range and those who are much lower is mostly due to play in the blinds. I think some of these people play too tight in the blinds and that can have a large effect on your win rate.

I also think that win rates are very inaccurate based on the numbers of hands that most people have at any level in pokertracker. For instance, I have 46,156 hands at Party 3/6. My VP$IP is 18.96, my pre-flop raise % is 8.34 and my win rate is 3.33BB/100. However, even with 46,000 hands there is a large confidence interval around my win rate and it could be significantly lower in reality.

I would like to see CostaRicaBill's VP$IP by position to see how he plays the blinds.

One thing I noticed in CostaRicaBill's stats is that he does not attempt to steal very often. My percentage is close to 30%. Perhaps that is a little high, but I don't think so.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm at 19% VPIP and I am very tight in the blinds, my feeling is that the extra VPIP comes from loosening up in late position. The 13%-14% VPIP'ers are probably folding things like K5s or J8s on the button, or 97s in the CO after a couple limpers. My VPIP on the button is twice as high as my VPIP UTG and for me at least that is where I am getting my extra VPIP.

30% attempt to steal seems about right. I don't remember what I am at 3/6 but at 2/4 I was about 33%. The 1/3 structure at 3/6 would make you want to steal less there though.

[pokerjo22]

[ QUOTE ]
The 1/3 structure at 3/6 would make you want to steal less there though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you say that? I can see the reward is less, but won't the SB be less likely to defend as well?

[JimRivett]

Hello Max,

I agree with the concept that the graph illustrates, my "gut" tells me that perhaps it's a range that is optimal rather than a specific number.

I agree with your comments regarding the blinds and I also agree that observing the VPIP by position would give better feedback.

Jim

[wuarhg]

[ QUOTE ]
30% attempt to steal seems about right. I don't remember what I am at 3/6 but at 2/4 I was about 33%. The 1/3 structure at 3/6 would make you want to steal less there though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great info from everyone, One question about blind stealing. I've got that up from 15% to 20% and i'm still wondering, what kind of hands should I steal with. If I open-raise everything i'm going to limp from LMP (a bit tighter), CO and Button would that be a good starting plan? I usually do not raise JTo or even JTs but I raise hands like QTo, KTo if i'm first in (CO or Button).

And sometimes if I know the blinds will give up pretty much 80% of their hands I can raise with hands like Ax, Kx on the Button. Is my thinking pointing towards the right direction?

[sthief09]

nothing I say will convince you. you have your own beliefs and that's fine. 16 was a bit low for 3/6. as MP said, 17-19 is a good range. some people play very tight and accept decent wins. I always thought the point was to maximize profit though. that's why I'm willing to play more hands and try to make more. most people are like me in that respect. apparently you aren't. again, that's fine. just don't tell people that they're not too tight and to accept beating the game. I suspect somoene that psots his stats for review wants to improve. he can improve by adding a lot more hands. just because you are unwilling to add more marginally profitable hands doesn't mean he shouldn't be.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have the same problem, Although i'm working on my VP$IP and PFR and they are going up now since i've started looking into openraising more and limping or raising behind weak openlimpers. Something I never do at 3/6 is limp A9s-A2s and 88-22 UTG. I'm definately going to start to look into these hands, but I really don't like the situation if a TA-A raises behind me and I end up heads-up against him.

Any thoughts? I consider myself having pretty good table selection.

[/ QUOTE ]

Limping A2s UTG is going a little too far.

[/ QUOTE ]


no, it isn't

[MaxPower]

[ QUOTE ]


I'm at 19% VPIP and I am very tight in the blinds, my feeling is that the extra VPIP comes from loosening up in late position. The 13%-14% VPIP'ers are probably folding things like K5s or J8s on the button, or 97s in the CO after a couple limpers. My VPIP on the button is twice as high as my VPIP UTG and for me at least that is where I am getting my extra VPIP.

30% attempt to steal seems about right. I don't remember what I am at 3/6 but at 2/4 I was about 33%. The 1/3 structure at 3/6 would make you want to steal less there though.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is true. Those are the type of hands I would play on the button in an unrasied pot. I think that contributes to it as well. I don't have any proof of the blinds theory, I'd like to compare some stats to see if it holds up. I just think play in the blinds is extremely critical.

Its true you are getting worse odds on a steal in 3/6, but it seems to work very often. The SB is going to be less likely to defend. I found that blind steals were very easy to deal with at that limit. People very rarely played back at me or got tricky. Many players would just check-fold if they missed the flop. At 5/10 and higher there is a lot more blind defense going on. That is my experince, but I haven't played the 3/6 games in a few months.

[JimRivett]

nothing I say will convince you

I'm open to any input that is given, but as of yet I haven't seen anything that convinces me it's a specific VPIP% that is optimal. Come on admit it, didn't you overreact to my initial post?

As I said before, I'm sure the originator of this thread, Bill, will post some hands and listen to the feed back, it will then be up to him how he applies it. Don't you think he deserves contrary views from successful players?

Jim

[sthief09]

you said that he's not too tight. he is. that's why I was bothered by your first post

[krishanleong]

Assume a player plays absulotely perfectly. Then his optimal VP$IP will be all hands that are +EV. If you think this is 11%, you are arguing against a lot of hands that many people including Ed and many SS posters believe are +EV. Now the reason most people shy away from VP$IP above 19 is because the more hands you add, the more difficult situations you put yourself in, and the better player you have to be to turn a profit. (In those marginal situations) Astroglide posted a winrate of +3 over a semisignificant number of hands (60K, 100K?) with a VP$IP of 22% at 3/6. Interpret the data how you will.

Krishan

[JimRivett]

You may want to reread my initial post.

Jim

[sthief09]

you've made the following comments in this thread:

the most important stat - bb/100, says that you are a winning player, that says a lot right there.

Others have commented on your VPIP stat and while mine is higher (14%) I wouldn't be too concerned about it.

Bill asked for input on his game, he is already a winning player, my advice was not to worry about too much about his VPIP %, post some hands and digest the input he receives.




I'm done with this. it's a waste of time

[CostaRicaBill]

Thanks for the input so far guys, I thought my preflop play was solid but now I realize that I've got some adjustments to make...I want to crush! Here are my stats from the blinds...

Blind Defense
Small Blind...Times 20, Fold% 25 Ww/oSD% 20 WSD% 55 W$SD% 45.45
Big Blind.....Times 40, Fold% 42.50 Ww/oSD% 10 WSD% 47.50 W$SD% 57.89

Att. to Steal Blinds 16.92

[J.R.]

Att. to Steal Blinds 16.92

boo

[sfwusc]

Come play with me if you fold to aggr /images/graemlins/smile.gif

You need to get reads on players.

SFWUSC

[MaxPower]

Well it is possible that you are not defending your Big Blind enough from steals, but what I really wanted to see was your VP$IP from the SB and the BB. You can see that on the position stats tab.

[uw_madtown]

[ QUOTE ]
nothing I say will convince you

I'm open to any input that is given, but as of yet I haven't seen anything that convinces me it's a specific VPIP% that is optimal. Come on admit it, didn't you overreact to my initial post?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he didn't.

11-14% in the Party 3/6 is suboptimal, without a doubt. Now, there are various reasons and ways you can go about justifying a lower VPIP. Often the difference in EV may be relatively small, while the the difference in standard deviation can bu substantial (you may make an extra .25 or .5 BB/100, but end up with a swingier game that some players prefer to avoid). Playing some of these small +EV hands also requires skill and judgement, and can end up in disasterous chip-spewing by an unconfident or inexperienced player.

All that said, the 16-19% VPIP range is where the optimal VPIP for slightly loose-passive games like the Party 3/6 lies. Now, if you were playing in signficantly looser or tighter or more aggressive games than that, you may see that optimal range slide up or down a percentage point or two, but probably not much more.

Further, VPIP is the main stat that sticks out as a potential flaw. He's playing aggressively preflop with a 7+% PFR. His post-flop aggression factor (2 overall) is solid. His win % at showdown is actually a bit high, and makes me think he may not be calling people down enough -- but this is a fall that can be dangerous to correct as people sometimes overcorrect and end up calling down way too much.

His later comments especially indicate that he's not limping enough with certain hands, like Axs and small pocket pairs, as well as some other suited hands from MP and LP. All in all, from statistics alone, the only flaw that is real visible is his lower-than-standard VPIP combined with a standard PFR. It would appear he may be falling victim to the "fit or fold," "if it's worth a call, then it's worth a raise" mentality, and sometimes that's just not the case. Limping with small pocket pairs and Axs from EP in the Party 3/6 is going to be profitable unless you're at a tight table (if so, move). The best way to learn how to play these hands profitably is to play them, and then try to learn from mistakes.

I believe the quote "you can never play too tight preflop" was probably in reference to beginners -- for whom a 20% VPIP would feel absurdly tight. OF COURSE YOU CAN PLAY TOO TIGHT. 11-14 VPIP is too tight. While he only has 19k hands, VPIP converges faster than other stats tend to, so it's less likely that he's just gotten a bad run of unplayable cards.

And telling him that a 14 VPIP is fine does him a disservice. Can a 14 VPIP be profitable, and even preferrable for certain aforementioned reasons? Of course. Can a 14 VPIP be optimal in most games? No.

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

With 65K hands of 2/4 and 3/6 my V$IP is a whopping 20.4% and I'm earning 3.4BB/100. My WR at 3/6 is 2BB/100 and at 2/4 it is 5BB/100 after 30K+ hands each. I think I need to tighten up at 3/6...

[CostaRicaBill]

Maxpower,

VPIP Big Blind: 13.87
VPIP Small Blind: 13.10

[bisonbison]

Milo, are you multitabling? I think the reason I'm so tight is that with 6-8 tables going, I can't identify appropriate times for marginal hands.

14.5 VPIP.

[gaming_mouse]

Folded BBtostealHU:-71.77

Not sure, but I think this is quite a bit too high.

Can anyone confirm or refute this?

gm

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
you're not limping nearly enough. pocket pairs and suited aces are your friends

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless my initial 15K hands at 2/4 and 3/6 were an anomoly, I showed a profit with every pocket pair above 22, but lost money with all suited aces below A8s. Consequently, I have been much more selective with respect to position and the table composition when deciding whether to play suited aces.

[SomethingClever]

[ QUOTE ]
Milo, are you multitabling? I think the reason I'm so tight is that with 6-8 tables going, I can't identify appropriate times for marginal hands.

14.5 VPIP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm with you, Bison. I am desperately trying to crack the 14 barrier at 2/4, but I'm stuck at about 13.6. I feel loose, though!

[sthief09]

I've always found suited aces to be really profitable for me. I haven't played that many hands though so I could've just won some big pots that are skewing the results

[MaxPower]

[ QUOTE ]
Maxpower,

VPIP Big Blind: 13.87
VPIP Small Blind: 13.10

[/ QUOTE ]

I think my theory holds some water.

Its very possible that I play too loose in the blinds. But unless the games have gotten much more passive, I think that is way too tight.

Perhaps others will disagree. I would be curious to see what others think.

[Trix]

There are mine after ~11K hands:

VPIP:---------------12.65
VPIPfSB:------------14.08
Folded SBtosteal:---93.10
Folded BBtosteal:---74.29
Folded BBtostealHU:-72.09
Att.tosteal:--------21.75
Won$whensawflop:----33.52

went to sd:---------30.97
won$atsd:-----------57.33
PFR:----------------8.6

After playing 5/10 6max, I think I need to steal more and perhaps defend more, so you definetly need to steal more.

I think you can win 2+/100 with any vpip from 12-20 though, so postflop is probably a bigger problem that this.

Astroglide have posted his stats after 100K hands, winning ~3/100 with a vpip around 20.

1) Openraise from CO and Button some more
2) Loosen up all around some too, but dont overdo it.

I dont think Axs and 22 are profitable in EP in most of the 3/6 games I played, but much of it have been US daytime.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]

Limping A2s UTG is going a little too far.

[/ QUOTE ]

no, it isn't

[/ QUOTE ]

do you have PT stats for Axs and small pocket pairs UTG? i've been under the impression that these hands aren't that profitable (at least with my sucky play) but i know i could be wrong. if anyone else has stats on these hands with a decent sample size, please post.

[stinkypete]

if you're playing so few hands before the flop, you should probably be going to showdown more often.