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08-29-2001, 08:47 AM
Hello,


This pokerproblem is in my head for a couple months now maybe you can help me to solve it.


At the flop you are on a draw for example a flushdraw in limit hold' em and there is only you and an other player left. You know what he has and he knows what you have and he's not stupid. He has AhKd You have TcJc


The flop is Ad5c2c


the change that you make the flush on the turn is 9/47 (in this example it's 9/45 because you know you're opponents cards)


Let's forget the possibility that you make you flush and still lose to a full house or 4 of a kind


so in my opinion you you will have a positive expectation at the moment the pot offers you more then 1:4,22 so if you get these pot odds you should call, no matter what you expectation might be on the next card if the flushcard didn't show up.


for example if you get 1:4,5 pot odds you can call a bet, the pot contains now 5,5 small bets. At the turn the flushcard didn't come you're opponent bets the pot is now 7,5 small bets and you pot odds don't justify another cal anymore because you only get 1:3,75 and you should at least get 9/46 1:4,11 to call, so you fold.


In my opinion this is just one of the cases were things has changed for you. There is no difference for me if you have two QQ in your hand and 9 other people see the flop which has an A and a K and no Q. The value of your hand is gone, but that doesn't mean that you shouldn't have played it when you were still a favorit.


Do you think that this make sense or do I make a mistake in my thinking somewere.

08-29-2001, 11:26 AM
Sounds right to me...


The value of QQ is when an A and K don't come on the flop, or when an A (or K) comes with a Q. The chance that an A or K doesn't fall against your QQ on the flop is:


42/50 * 41/49 * 40/48 = 59%


You will be way ahead 59% of the time, and a small percentage of the 41% of the time that an A or K falls you will flop a set.


Also, if you heads up with QQ, you are often still ahead when an A or K fall.


Derrick

08-30-2001, 05:17 AM
I knew that already it was just an example the 1.000.000$$$ question was the one with the flushdraw.

08-30-2001, 11:38 AM
Louis, 38 unseen cards minus 9 outs= 38 to 9=4.22 to 1


in pot the 7.5 small bets compare to the 2 you must put in to call=3.75 to 1 pot odds


that's pretty close=a difference of only .47


we can't allways have the best of it, so let's gamble!!

08-30-2001, 11:53 AM
You are getting the best of it from the flop to the turn, but not from the turn to the river.


5.5:1 on the flop need ~4.5:1. You should take one off on the flop because you have positive expectation.


On the turn you are getting 7.5:2 and you need 8.22:2, so you should fold... UNLESS, if you hit you will get paid off giving you an extra BB.


Sorry about my original answer.


derrick

08-30-2001, 12:31 PM
sorry about that--I forgot the most important point which I wanted to make


after the flop, in deciding about calling, you must assume the likelyhood of having to call a bet after the turn and base your decision accordingly

08-31-2001, 04:16 AM
Thanks for the answer that's what I thought already. Well in this situation you're not gonna get the extra bet because he knows what you have.


One thing more to consider is the rake/tax. I live in europe and the tax is here 5% with a maximum of 50 guilders (20 us $) So if you just count the money in the pot (the rake is taken outs after the game) You might make a mistake also you think you getting 1:4,5 pot odds but in realitity you getting les because of the rake. so when you expectation is slightly positive you shouldn't play sometimes because of the rake.

09-09-2001, 07:54 PM
why would you take the worst of it???