08-29-2001, 08:47 AM
Hello,
This pokerproblem is in my head for a couple months now maybe you can help me to solve it.
At the flop you are on a draw for example a flushdraw in limit hold' em and there is only you and an other player left. You know what he has and he knows what you have and he's not stupid. He has AhKd You have TcJc
The flop is Ad5c2c
the change that you make the flush on the turn is 9/47 (in this example it's 9/45 because you know you're opponents cards)
Let's forget the possibility that you make you flush and still lose to a full house or 4 of a kind
so in my opinion you you will have a positive expectation at the moment the pot offers you more then 1:4,22 so if you get these pot odds you should call, no matter what you expectation might be on the next card if the flushcard didn't show up.
for example if you get 1:4,5 pot odds you can call a bet, the pot contains now 5,5 small bets. At the turn the flushcard didn't come you're opponent bets the pot is now 7,5 small bets and you pot odds don't justify another cal anymore because you only get 1:3,75 and you should at least get 9/46 1:4,11 to call, so you fold.
In my opinion this is just one of the cases were things has changed for you. There is no difference for me if you have two QQ in your hand and 9 other people see the flop which has an A and a K and no Q. The value of your hand is gone, but that doesn't mean that you shouldn't have played it when you were still a favorit.
Do you think that this make sense or do I make a mistake in my thinking somewere.
This pokerproblem is in my head for a couple months now maybe you can help me to solve it.
At the flop you are on a draw for example a flushdraw in limit hold' em and there is only you and an other player left. You know what he has and he knows what you have and he's not stupid. He has AhKd You have TcJc
The flop is Ad5c2c
the change that you make the flush on the turn is 9/47 (in this example it's 9/45 because you know you're opponents cards)
Let's forget the possibility that you make you flush and still lose to a full house or 4 of a kind
so in my opinion you you will have a positive expectation at the moment the pot offers you more then 1:4,22 so if you get these pot odds you should call, no matter what you expectation might be on the next card if the flushcard didn't show up.
for example if you get 1:4,5 pot odds you can call a bet, the pot contains now 5,5 small bets. At the turn the flushcard didn't come you're opponent bets the pot is now 7,5 small bets and you pot odds don't justify another cal anymore because you only get 1:3,75 and you should at least get 9/46 1:4,11 to call, so you fold.
In my opinion this is just one of the cases were things has changed for you. There is no difference for me if you have two QQ in your hand and 9 other people see the flop which has an A and a K and no Q. The value of your hand is gone, but that doesn't mean that you shouldn't have played it when you were still a favorit.
Do you think that this make sense or do I make a mistake in my thinking somewere.