A4 fold from SB against BB

[stanky]

With the stacks the way they were I thought this was a good fold, was wondering what you guys thought. BB was not overly aggresive or loose .

-Pete
It's a 50+5 if that matters
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t1710)
BB (t5030)
UTG (t725)
MP (t1745)
Button (t790)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, MP folds, Button folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t450

[Unarmed]

I push that in a heartbeat.

[RobGW]

I assume that you are hoping that the 2 small stack will go out and you can make the top three. The problem with that is they may not go out. They may double up. By playing too tight here you are going to get your stack ate up. Its costing you $450 every 5 hands. Even if you wait for the others to go out, by that time you will be shortstacked yourself. So, your plan is to play extremely tight and POSSIBLY squeak into 3rd. I would push this. The BB is not overly loose so he will probably fold. That way you keep your stack in decent shape while the blinds eat up the shortstacks. When shorthanded with high blinds you need to be aggressive.

[tigerite]

Your folding equity is pretty big even against him, if he calls and loses, he will take 1/3rd off his stack and be only on equal footing with you.

It's an easy push.

[El Maximo]

I would push that also. My range of push hands at 5BB is pretty wide. The BB has you covered but you still have some fold equity here. These are the range of hands I would seriously consider pushing here. Id be interested to here others comments. I tend to be over aggressive sometimes.

Any A
Any Pair
Kxs
K8+
Suited Connectors
Any 2 Broadway
And probably a handful more of high suited Qs and Js

[stanky]

is a min. raise an option with a push on the flop if an A comes or rags, or is my stack to small to pull that off?


-Pete

[El Maximo]

A min raise is just asking for the big stack to play back at you. Push and the majority of times he will fold. If he does call you wont be in that bad of shape.

[stanky]

so you guys don't care about the two players with less than T800, because that was my main reason for folding. I figured I'd let them blind off then take some chances when i'm in the money.


-Pete

[Unarmed]

There are exceptions, but generally speaking this is the exact opposite of correct bubble strategy. So luckily you don't have to alter your thinking one bit. Just do the exact opposite of your initial instinct. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[El Maximo]

My reasoning is you are still 5 handed. One or both of the short stacks could double up. I would play more cautious on the bubble with 1 stack in dire straights. But in this scenario I'm being aggressive. Sometimes I find alot of tight passive play when shorthanded. This is a great opportunity to build a stack and challenge the chip leader. Im aggro shorthanded and it works for me but maybe the variance hasnt caught up to me yet.

[stanky]

ouch, that sort of stung

-Pete

[Mr_J]

"BB was not overly aggresive or loose"

Totally depends on EXACTLY how/what he has been playing. I don't think I'd get him to fold except with maybe an all-in (although A4o isn't exactly a hand I'd want to all-in with). I'd also consider that the 2 shortstacks are about to lose 450 chips apiece to blinds, and with any luck both will get knocked out.

As long as he wasn't overly aggressive, he would fold unless he has something. If you won the all-in he's now only equal leader, and can't bully the way he could before. If he was overly aggressive he may call but you'd probally still be the better side of a coinflip. If you won then you are basically guaranteed of a place, with a great shot at 1st.

On paper I'd say all-in. Anyone thinking this is a bad move?

[Mr_J]

only just read the other posts, wanted to do this one myself. I'm a newbie so I wanted to think about it before I posted, so you guys don't laugh /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[stillnotking]

I would not push right here. Small unsuited aces make extremely poor "last stand" hands against a big stack. If the BB calls, you are likely looking at a bigger ace or a pocket pair higher than 4s, and that spells D-O-M-I-N-A-T-E-D.

I would push with any pair, any 2 broadway cards, or A9. Maybe even large suited connectors. Definitely not with A4o.

[Unarmed]

If BB calls with only the hands you mention (~15% of the time) then I'm pushing with any two.

IMO, with A4 it doesn't matter if he's tight or loose. If he's tight I don't care what my cards are. If he's loose then I'm happy to have A high.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]


I would push with any pair, any 2 broadway cards, or A9. Maybe even large suited connectors. Definitely not with A4o.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you would push with KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, and JT, but fold A-4. That's 96 holdem hands you would push with that are behind A-4 hot and cold. Anybody else see a problem with that?

This whole thread should have a warning on it "read at own risk."

Irieguy

[Nick B.]

Why not limp, I think this is a perfect opportunity since you hand has showdown value should it get checked all the way, and if you hit an A, you know your hand is likely good.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
BB was not overly aggresive or loose

[/ QUOTE ]

Push. With two short stacks left of 5, you're usually not going to get into the money by just folding it down and hoping they get knocked out (and when you do fold into the money, you'll usually be very short stacked). A good (well-timed) offense is often the best defense in bubble/near-bubble situations like this.

Sucks the few times BB will pick up a hand, call and win, but it also sucks when you pass up good steal opportunities like this and that (folding til you get short stacked and have to make a desparate move with some crap that easily gets picked off) is what ends up costing you getting into the money.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]

So you would push with KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, and JT, but fold A-4. That's 96 holdem hands you would push with that are behind A-4 hot and cold. Anybody else see a problem with that?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course, but it makes some sense. If Villain is calling with only A5+ and 55+ and you've already decided you're pushing, you're clearly better off with KQ than A4.

Irie, I'm sure you've seen the thread that ranks call hands when you're pushed into but I've never seen one that ranks which hands are best to push with given a subset of calling hands from your opponent.

However, I suspect that all aces are still worth pushing because if a player is tight enough to make A2 an automatic dog if called, you should probably be pushing any two cards.

[Irieguy]

I agree with most of what you say except the first few points about the villain's calling standards. People always say "if villain will call with any ace and any pair, then..." I don't know a villain that won't call all-in with KQ, KJs, etc.

Your last point is very insightful: if your opponent is so tight that an ace rates to be behind, you should be pushing any two. I agree.

Irieguy

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't know a villain that won't call all-in with KQ, KJs, etc.


[/ QUOTE ]

Neither do I...it was a contrived example. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[texasrattlers]

[ QUOTE ]
So luckily you don't have to alter your thinking one bit. Just do the exact opposite of your initial instinct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice.

[Gramps]

Even if BB "was not overly aggresive or loose," and obliges your SB complete by checking to see a flop, any half-aware player with 5k in chips is going to bet the flop when checked to roughly 100% of the time...I don't think you're going to get a free showdown here.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]

Even if BB "was not overly aggresive or loose," and obliges your SB complete by checking to see a flop, any half-aware player with 5k in chips is going to bet the flop when checked to roughly 100% of the time...I don't think you're going to get a free showdown here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup, so I check call when an ace hits and get more chips out of him that I will by pushing and hoping that he doesn't have a good hand. Pushing an extremely marginal hand against the chip leader is not a very good strategy. Especially when he has you covered by such a large amount.

[ChrisV]

Any half decent big stack will push allin against a limp here with literally any two cards. I certainly would.

I don't call A4 a marginal hand in this situation. The fact that I'm pushing against the big stack does tighten me up, but given that I'd probably push stuff like T8 suited if he wasn't the big stack, A4 isn't close to getting chopped off the list.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
Yup, so I check call when an ace hits and get more chips out of him that I will by pushing and hoping that he doesn't have a good hand. Pushing an extremely marginal hand against the chip leader is not a very good strategy. Especially when he has you covered by such a large amount.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think the stated general rule applies on the facts. First off, A4 is not an "extremely marginal" hand against a random hand. Sure, if you're called you're not feeling great, but the odds of BB having an Ace/pair are only about 12% or so. You have some good fold equity, you're not going to get called very often (given the description of BB as not overly loose).

If you merely complete, a lot of BB's will simply push any two cards on you (even your normally less aggressive ones), so you're only going to see the flop for 1/2 bet a % of the time.

Of that % of the time that you do get to see the flop, an Ace is going to hit a shade over 1/6 times. You'll get a few other flops to your liking, but most of the time you'll be left with Ace high out of position against the chip leader who has the power to steal pots with mini-bets and knows it (or certainly should know it, even at the lower buy-ins).

Even if you do get to see the flop, and even if you do flop an Ace, a pretty standard play for BB is simply to mini-bet his "any two cards" if checked to. Once you call him/raise him on the flop, he's probably not going to spend much more (if any) if he doesn't have anything. So...of the % of the time you do get to see the flop, and of the low % of the time you do get a flop to your liking, it's not like you're going to make a bunch of chips on average - even when the planets align.

To me, pushing in this spot and getting 450 chips the vast majority of the time for free is the better play given the tourney situation and relative stack sizes. If the BB was very loose/very passive, it might be another story (or if you've been raping blinds left and right and have an image of pushing any two when folded to in the SB regardless). You have some good fold equity here, he's not going to have a calling hand much of the time.

[texasrattlers]

Very nice analysis!

[Gramps]

Odds of BB having pair/Ace are more like 17% (roughly). 12% is roughly his odds of having an Ace. And, you'll still suck out a % of the time he calls (with whatever his calling standards turn out to be). So odds of you getting knocked at are odds he has a calling hand (whatever range of calling hands you assing to BB), and the % of the time you lose against that range. Still lowish risk for the reward of 450 chips here (IMHO).

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
Odds of BB having pair/Ace are more like 17% (roughly). 12% is roughly his odds of having an Ace. And, you'll still suck out a % of the time he calls (with whatever his calling standards turn out to be). So odds of you getting knocked at are odds he has a calling hand (whatever range of calling hands you assing to BB), and the % of the time you lose against that range. Still lowish risk for the reward of 450 chips here (IMHO).

[/ QUOTE ]

Well your opinion is wrong. Risking 6xbb to win 1.5x is very bad when you can get knocked out of the tournament. Playing stack sizes is more important than playing cards at no limit. YOu should be more aggressive against short stacks than big stacks, which is why a limp here is correct. Survival is key in tournaments. Pushing A4 against a person with 3x your stack is reckless.

[ChrisV]

You're risking much closer to 5BB - hero has 1560 after posting. Risking 5BB to win 1.5BB heads up with an ace is a deal ill take any day of the week.

Gramps is rarely wrong and this is most certainly not one of those times.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
You're risking much closer to 5BB - hero has 1560 after posting. Risking 5BB to win 1.5BB heads up with an ace is a deal ill take any day of the week.

Gramps is rarely wrong and this is most certainly not one of those times.

[/ QUOTE ]

No wonder I stay out of this forum. Please keep playing aggressively against the big stacks at the table, especially with hands like A4o. That is a surefire way to go bust.

[ghostface]

This can only be push or fold. How can it be argued that limping against the chip leader can be anykind of smart play. What do you do when you limp and the BB pushes? With two shortstacks you have to assume one of them will probably double up unless they both get unlucky or push with dominated hands and dont suckout. I think you fold here if you want to squeek into the money and push if you have any intention of winning.

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're risking much closer to 5BB - hero has 1560 after posting. Risking 5BB to win 1.5BB heads up with an ace is a deal ill take any day of the week.

Gramps is rarely wrong and this is most certainly not one of those times.

[/ QUOTE ]

No wonder I stay out of this forum. Please keep playing aggressively against the big stacks at the table, especially with hands like A4o. That is a surefire way to go bust.

[/ QUOTE ]

How about some kind of logical argument? I love to see people argue against what I see as an easy decision (thats when you learn the most, right?), but I hate it when the only arguement is just something like "don't tangle with the bigstack!" or "don't get all your chips in with that kind of hand!". Its kinda like a baseball manager refusing to bring in a lefty to face a righty when the lefty is the best pitcher in the pen against the hitter, because it goes "against the book".

So, lets get logical and mathematical about this. Do you agree with the ICM in general? Lets pick a range of hands the big stack with call with or two, and see how your ICMEV works out here.

First, the basic numbers:
If you fold, your ICMEV is .198
If you push and double up: .304
If you steal: .229
If you push and bust: 0

First, lets assume he'll only call with 55+, A5+, KJ+. This range really has us in trouble when he calls. 18.7% chance of a call. Our odds against this range if called are only 38%.

.813 * (.229) + 0.071 * (.304) + 0.116 * 0 = .207761

Now lets loosen him up a bit and say he will call with any pair, any ace, any broadway, and suited kings. Thats 27.7% of hands, and we are 43.5% to win if he calls.

.723 * (.229) + 0.120495 * (.304) + 0.156505 * 0 = .202197

With the bigstack to your left, you are going to have to steal from him eventually, you can't wait and try to steal from the other stacks. If this were a case where you were deciding on calling the bigstack from your right with a close ICM situation, I could see folding, so you can steal from the shortstacks later. Here, you can't. You can't sit and wait for the shortstacks and you can't avoid the bigstack if you want to gain any chips.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're risking much closer to 5BB - hero has 1560 after posting. Risking 5BB to win 1.5BB heads up with an ace is a deal ill take any day of the week.

Gramps is rarely wrong and this is most certainly not one of those times.

[/ QUOTE ]

No wonder I stay out of this forum. Please keep playing aggressively against the big stacks at the table, especially with hands like A4o. That is a surefire way to go bust.

[/ QUOTE ]

How about some kind of logical argument? I love to see people argue against what I see as an easy decision (thats when you learn the most, right?), but I hate it when the only arguement is just something like "don't tangle with the bigstack!" or "don't get all your chips in with that kind of hand!". Its kinda like a baseball manager refusing to bring in a lefty to face a righty when the lefty is the best pitcher in the pen against the hitter, because it goes "against the book".

So, lets get logical and mathematical about this. Do you agree with the ICM in general? Lets pick a range of hands the big stack with call with or two, and see how your ICMEV works out here.

First, the basic numbers:
If you fold, your ICMEV is .198
If you push and double up: .304
If you steal: .229
If you push and bust: 0

First, lets assume he'll only call with 55+, A5+, KJ+. This range really has us in trouble when he calls. 18.7% chance of a call. Our odds against this range if called are only 38%.

.813 * (.229) + 0.071 * (.304) + 0.116 * 0 = .207761

Now lets loosen him up a bit and say he will call with any pair, any ace, any broadway, and suited kings. Thats 27.7% of hands, and we are 43.5% to win if he calls.

.723 * (.229) + 0.120495 * (.304) + 0.156505 * 0 = .202197

With the bigstack to your left, you are going to have to steal from him eventually, you can't wait and try to steal from the other stacks. If this were a case where you were deciding on calling the bigstack from your right with a close ICM situation, I could see folding, so you can steal from the shortstacks later. Here, you can't. You can't sit and wait for the shortstacks and you can't avoid the bigstack if you want to gain any chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, what I would do in this situation. I would limp with the A4 and try and see a flop. Why? Because I am probably a better postflop player than the opponent. If he pushes, then there is nothing I can do and I just lost 150. It does give me information that he will push when I limp which I could use later.

If he doesn't raise, now there are two ways I can win his blind, by making a hand or stealing the pot. After the flop, you will be much more likely to be able to steal the pot and it will cost you a lot less to do so.

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, what I would do in this situation. I would limp with the A4 and try and see a flop. Why? Because I am probably a better postflop player than the opponent. If he pushes, then there is nothing I can do and I just lost 150. It does give me information that he will push when I limp which I could use later.

If he doesn't raise, now there are two ways I can win his blind, by making a hand or stealing the pot. After the flop, you will be much more likely to be able to steal the pot and it will cost you a lot less to do so.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really see how it will cost you less to steal the pot once you get to a flop here. With 600 in the pot and 1410 chips left, what kind of bet are you going to make to steal here? Any pot sized bet and you are committed to the pot. Anything less and you are asking for a raise even more than you were by completing the SB. I'm also not so sure that it will be easier to steal with a flop out. Your opponent is going to pair the flop around 1/3rd of the time, and will often call/raise when he does. Even the loose opponent I dreamed up in the previous reply only called with 25% of hands.

Even if the big stack only pushes back pre-flop about 1/3 of the time, its going to be almost impossible to make enough chips back the other 2/3 of the time to make it a more EV move to limp here.

Maybe with deeper stacks I could justify limping into hands to take advantage of superior postflop play, but the blinds are just too high to really gain a significant advantage postflop now. You have 5xBB, it is a pre-flop game now.

[stillnotking]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're risking much closer to 5BB - hero has 1560 after posting. Risking 5BB to win 1.5BB heads up with an ace is a deal ill take any day of the week.

Gramps is rarely wrong and this is most certainly not one of those times.

[/ QUOTE ]

No wonder I stay out of this forum. Please keep playing aggressively against the big stacks at the table, especially with hands like A4o. That is a surefire way to go bust.

[/ QUOTE ]

How about some kind of logical argument? I love to see people argue against what I see as an easy decision (thats when you learn the most, right?), but I hate it when the only arguement is just something like "don't tangle with the bigstack!" or "don't get all your chips in with that kind of hand!". Its kinda like a baseball manager refusing to bring in a lefty to face a righty when the lefty is the best pitcher in the pen against the hitter, because it goes "against the book".

So, lets get logical and mathematical about this. Do you agree with the ICM in general? Lets pick a range of hands the big stack with call with or two, and see how your ICMEV works out here.

First, the basic numbers:
If you fold, your ICMEV is .198
If you push and double up: .304
If you steal: .229
If you push and bust: 0

First, lets assume he'll only call with 55+, A5+, KJ+. This range really has us in trouble when he calls. 18.7% chance of a call. Our odds against this range if called are only 38%.

.813 * (.229) + 0.071 * (.304) + 0.116 * 0 = .207761

Now lets loosen him up a bit and say he will call with any pair, any ace, any broadway, and suited kings. Thats 27.7% of hands, and we are 43.5% to win if he calls.

.723 * (.229) + 0.120495 * (.304) + 0.156505 * 0 = .202197

With the bigstack to your left, you are going to have to steal from him eventually, you can't wait and try to steal from the other stacks. If this were a case where you were deciding on calling the bigstack from your right with a close ICM situation, I could see folding, so you can steal from the shortstacks later. Here, you can't. You can't sit and wait for the shortstacks and you can't avoid the bigstack if you want to gain any chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for running the math on that. Your premises look sound to me.

So for your first range of hands, ICM equity gain by pushing vs. folding is 0.009761. With the second range it's 0.004197. Not a whole lot of difference. I'd say this is about as close as you can come in tournament poker to a decision that doesn't really matter equity-wise.

I'd still fold the hand, for two reasons. #1, I consider myself a better player than most, and so I don't like to risk all my chips on a small edge. #2, a major reason I play SNGs is to keep variance down, and pushing here is a big +variance play.

[eastbay]

Nick,

This isn't a slam but genuine question, as what you're saying goes against what many PP SnG specialists/winners have advocated. I'm wondering if there aren't more/different angles to playing these things that can also be successful, such as your limp play here.

What PP SnG buy-in do you play, and what kind of results do you get?

FWIW, I personally don't think this is an easy push here. I think it's borderline at best.

eastbay

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for running the math on that. Your premises look sound to me.

So for your first range of hands, ICM equity gain by pushing vs. folding is 0.009761. With the second range it's 0.004197. Not a whole lot of difference. I'd say this is about as close as you can come in tournament poker to a decision that doesn't really matter equity-wise.

I'd still fold the hand, for two reasons. #1, I consider myself a better player than most, and so I don't like to risk all my chips on a small edge. #2, a major reason I play SNGs is to keep variance down, and pushing here is a big +variance play.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that this is a pretty slim advantage, but I would still take it every time because of my position relative to the bigstack..

Having the bigstack directly to your left is going to adversly affect the EV of almost every move you make for the rest of the tournament. You could easily go 2-3 orbits without another +EV chance at all and end up having to settle for a much worse situation.

[El Maximo]

Thanks for running the calcs Benholio. I think the calcs show and others agree that this is +EV Push. Hero has 5-6BB until the blinds double. At 5-6BB Im pushing my small edges. Its when I have 9-10BB that I am less willing to push a small edge. If I fall below 5BB I have less fold equity and have to rely on getting a premium hand to stay alive. Is my thinking screwed on this. There is alot of hands I would push here even though they are very borderline pushes.

[ChrisV]

I reiterate - the big stack is going to have to be a pretty poor, passive player not to push with any two against a limp. When he does, you don't just lose 150 - you lose the equity you would have got from pushing.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
I reiterate - the big stack is going to have to be a pretty poor, passive player not to push with any two against a limp. When he does, you don't just lose 150 - you lose the equity you would have got from pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't push with any 2 against the second chip leader limp from the sb. And if he does push with any 2 you can find a place to limp and call an all in pretty easily. You don't have that much equity with A4.