baby str8 near the bubble

[burningyen]

UB $20+2 10-handed SnG, down to 5 players

Villain has had a run of big cards to bust a few players and at T4000 is obviously the chip leader. I've been quiet but have a decent stack compared to the rest of the table with T1555 before this hand. Ever since the blinds were 30/60, Villain has been open-raising pre-flop much more than anyone at the table, aggressive but not stupidly so given his stack.

I post the T100 BB, Villain raises to T200 UTG. Very unusual for him to min-raise. It's folded around to me with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif7/images/graemlins/club.gif, and I call.

The flop comes A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ/images/graemlins/spade.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gif. Check, check. Again, very unusual.

The turn is the 8/images/graemlins/club.gif. I think for half a second and bet the pot, T450. Villain raises to T1500 so quickly you'd think it was on speed dial. I'm chip leader if I call and win, busted if I call and lose, and at the bottom of the field with T905 if I fold. Villain is still in great shape if he loses.

Please advise.

[RobGW]

I'd call this. There is only one hand you are behind, KQ. He could have anything, 2 pair, set, AK, etc. You checked the flop and bet the turn making it look like you are trying to pick up the pot, therefore it is more likely an aggressive big stack will come over the top of you. If you fold you are facing an uphill battle with 5 players left and the short stack with $100 blinds. Not good. If you win, you are chip leader with a good chance at winning it all. I'd take the chance right here.

[Delphin]

He min raised UTG and checked the flop then went all in over the top of your pot sized bet on the turn. Either the 8 really helped him, he's slowplayed a monster on the flop, or he thinks you are trying to steal.

For the 8 to have helped him, he must have A8, J8, T8, 88, or Q9. You have all of these hands beat except Q9. If he was slowplaying on the flop, he could have AA, JJ, TT, AJ, AT, JT, or KQ. Of these hands, only the KQ has you beat. It's also possible that he has a pair or less and thinks that you're bluffing or that you don't like your hand enough to call his all in.

There are so many possible holdings he could have and with a complete hand yourself, the only ones you don't have beat are a larger straight with KQ or Q9. I think I would call.

[notsosmart]

Also behind a Q9, but that's fairly unlikely...it smells like he had a hand, and I can see this play with something like AK, AQ (especially if they're spades), or even KK, QQ, or a set AA/JJ/TT if he thinks your pot bet is an attempt to steal. I probably call here as well.

[AlmightyJay]

I call, I put him on AA. Possibly JJ.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I call, I put him on AA. Possibly JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I think he has aces and let you catch up. If he has KQ, ni han.

[Elektrik]

I call this. I can see AA, possibly JJ or TT, and even AJ, AT, A8 depending. Sometimes an over aggro opponent will do this any A as well (although you said he's smart, so I'm discounting that). I don't think the eight helped him - I think he made his hand on the flop, and wanted to trap you on the turn. He could also be getting aggressive with a flush draw, but I don't think he'd play it this way.

KQ is a strong possibility. If he has that, so be it...