Nut flush draw gets expensive when the turn pairs the board [Archive]

View Full Version : Nut flush draw gets expensive when the turn pairs the board

belloc

12-14-2004, 01:44 PM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

I have only about 50-60 hands on most of the field (I'm only about 45 mins into the session). So far, CO seems to be TA-P, Button seems to be LA-P, no read on BB. The table overall has been fairly loose and passive up to this point. The blind poster behind me and the relative passivity so far gives me the go-ahead to see a flop with my A8s, even in EP.

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif. MP1 posts a blind of $2.
1 fold, Hero calls, MP1 (poster) checks, 2 folds, CO raises, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, Hero calls, MP1 folds.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, CO folds, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, BB 3-bets, Hero ??

I bet out the turn for two reasons: first, because I thought that Q might have been a scare card (my flop raise could have suggested top pair which now has turned into trips), second, because my bet might have gotten one or both opponents to fold; to feel out whether the Q helped someone significantly, which (as it turns out) it seems to have done.

I'm getting almost 7:1 on calling two big bets, which drops to 5.5:1 if it gets capped behind me. The action suggests that there's at least a Q out there (good for me), and maybe a set-turned-boat (bad for me). At first glance it seems that even if it gets capped, I'd have the odds to draw to the nut flush. But those odds must certainly change depending on the chances that someone's either already made a full house or some of my outs will give a full house to either opponent.

It's the latter thing that I'm never sure how to calculate, especially in the heat of the game. How much do I need to decrease my chances of winning the pot given the paired board and the action on the turn?

So finally, should I call this turn bet?

PantherZ

12-14-2004, 01:58 PM

At best, you've got 7 outs. The 7/images/graemlins/club.gif is no good, and whatever club pairs his kicker for a boat isn't any good. There is also a slim chance that you're drawing dead to 77 or 33. I'd give myself 6 outs in this spot, so you need to be getting about 6.7 to 1 to call.

belloc

12-14-2004, 02:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
At best, you've got 7 outs. The 7/images/graemlins/club.gif is no good, and whatever club pairs his kicker for a boat isn't any good. There is also a slim chance that you're drawing dead to 77 or 33. I'd give myself 6 outs in this spot, so you need to be getting about 6.7 to 1 to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, so is the conclusion then that if I were closing the betting with my call (about 7:1) I could do it profitably, but since there's a chance that it could be capped behind me (reducing my odds to about 5.5:1), I should fold?

How certain do I have to be that it will be capped to fold?

DeezNutz3

12-14-2004, 03:01 PM

The BB leads on this flop and calls a raise, what would the BB have that WOULDN'T be improved on the turn? I think this is going to be a fold, as I see the BB having a QTish hand and the button holding AQ.

MagicRat

12-14-2004, 03:08 PM

I think BB's play indicates he thinks you've got a Q too and he's playing "who's got the better kicker" or he feels his set is better than your set. Calling a pre-flop raise in the BB with A-Qo or K-Qo wouldn't be that unusual for most people. I think you've got to call the Turn and then see what the River brings. It may cost you 2 BB but it might be worth it if it gives you a read on the BB.

Also, I don't like the Flop raise with more people to act behind you than have acted in front. Is that standard?? Is this done to try and clean up your Ace outs?? I would still just call and hope to keep everybody around since I'm probably going to have to hit my flush to win. Just wondering...

belloc

12-14-2004, 05:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I don't like the Flop raise with more people to act behind you than have acted in front. Is that standard?? Is this done to try and clean up your Ace outs?? I would still just call and hope to keep everybody around since I'm probably going to have to hit my flush to win. Just wondering...

[/ QUOTE ]

If by "standard" you mean "suggested in SSH", then yes. IIRC, flush draws should be played aggressively into a big pot ("big" as defined earlier in the book), and more passively into smaller pots. Since this pot was "big" at 9.5 SB, I played it aggressively. I can see the argument for just calling here, counting on overcalls to build the pot, but I didn't think of it that way at the time. I tend to play my flush draws aggressively on the flop by instict.

MagicRat

12-14-2004, 05:41 PM

True, I wasn't thinking about the size of the pot (D'oh!). With no pre-flop raising, keep them in, but once it's gotten that large then you DO want to knock people out... Thanks!

belloc

12-15-2004, 04:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: (7.75 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, BB 3-bets, Hero ??

[/ QUOTE ]

Result: I folded.

Button caps the turn (as I feared), BB calls. River brings my flush with the 6c, and the betting goes check, bet, call, and Button turns over 77 for sevens full. BB had Q9o for trip queens.

I think my fold was the right play, as several responses suggested, but I'm open to other possibilities. I had probably only seven clean outs to my flush, and even then I still wasn't assured of having the winning hand (as turned out to be the case).

I don't think it was a case of the weak-tight problem of "seeing a boat around every corner" when the board pairs when you're drawing to a straight or flush. It simply got too expensive to call.

There's an example on pp. 150-151 of SSH that's very much like this in many ways (flush draw, turn pairs the board, raised bet). Miller recommends calling the two bets there, but there are a few fundamental differences between that hand and this. The main difference is that here, I'm caught in the middle of a betting war between two other opponents and am being asked to call a 3-bet, not just a single raise. Essentially, I'm up against two opponents who are quite confident in their hands, not just one, which I think makes a big difference.

Thanks to those that responded.