TPFAP Question

On pages 60-61 a discussion on the value of all-in hands compares JT suited vs. A9 off. It is claimed that JT suited is much better than A9 off.


I have a chart that says A9 off against all other hands is a 59% favorite to win and JT suited is a 56% favorite to win.


Is it illogical to assume that these two hands against each other is a very close call based on these statistics?


What programs out there can be purchased to determine which one of these hands is better against the other? If anyone has such program, would you run a test on these two hands.


Thank you,


Just Curious

<PRE>

Hold'em, 2-handed, pot 2, cost 1, preflop, full deck, 1712304 boards

Js-Ts: 47.69% 1:1 (EV -0.05) 813136 wins 6773 splits 892395 losses

Ah-9d: 52.31% 1:1 (EV +0.05) 892395 wins 6773 splits 813136 losses

</PRE>

But this in insubstatial. A9 has a much higher risk of being dominated when you get played with. The only exception are short-stacked steal situations where you expect your opponents to call with a great variety of hands. In that case, A9o is superior to JTs b/c of its ability to sometimes win the pot unimproved.



cu



Ignatius

Hold'em, 2-handed, pot 2, cost 1, preflop, full deck, 1712304 boards

Js-Ts: 47.69% 1:1 (EV -0.05) 813136 wins 6773 splits 892395 losses

Ah-9d: 52.31% 1:1 (EV +0.05) 892395 wins 6773 splits 813136 losses


I'm confused.....as I read this (your post stats), A9 off wins more % wise. So why is JT suited the favorite?

Multiway you'd rather have JTs. Most of the time it is more than just head to head.


I will almost always play JTs.

In early position or with an early position caller, i would not play A9.

One key concept of tournement play is that you need much lower standards to open-raise than you need for calling b/c of the additional possibility to win the pot uncontested. Therefor, if you get called, you will often be up against a better hand. A very large group of those calling hands are big aces (AK, but also AQ or AJ if your opponents put you on a steal) and if that happens, your A9o is in serious trouble (3:1 dog).


JTs is not only more unlikely to run into a dominating hand b/c ppl. are less prone to call all-in raises with hands like AT or KJ; it will also make a str8 or a flush about 15% of the times, which usually wins the pot even if the oppenent has a highly superior hand like AA.


cu


Ignatius

The original question remains which is what hand wins in a duel between: A9 off vs. JT suited. I believe the answer is A9 based on your statistics and my statistics.


Put another way, you are the small blind and everyone has folded to you. You plan on going all in against the big blind. Which hand would you rather have statistically speaking A9 off or JT suited.


I totally agree that JT suited plays much better multi-way....but that was not the question.


Curious

You were talking about the quote from Sklansky, so I was describing why I would usually rather have JTs.


However, in the SB in an unbet pot, I would definitely prefer A9os.

I would prefer Q2os even.

I'm not interested in what you would prefer...I'm interested in a program that gives statistics for such plays.....does anyone know of one?


Your preferences may be mathematically incorrect!

> The original question remains which is what hand wins in a duel between: A9 off vs. JT suited.


As stated in my first post A9o is a 52.31% favorite over JTo. The stats you quoted in your original post are the strengths vs. a random hand which don't necessarily correlate with direct heads-up performance. e.g.: 54s wins 41.6% vs. a random hand (splits count as 0.5 wins), 64o wins only 38.7% vs. a random hand. Yet, 64o is a 7:5 favorite against 54s.


There are even weirder anomalies, e.g. 22 beats AKo, AKo beats JTs but JTs beats 22.


> you are the small blind and everyone has folded to you. You plan on going all in against the big blind. Which hand would you rather have statistically speaking A9 off or JT suited.


This cannot be answered by all-in equities alone. If the BB will defend with 1/3 of his hands, I'd chose A9o, if he'll defend only with 1/8 of his hands, I'd take JTs.


So the answer depends very much on the size of your raise, the tightness of your opponents and your table image.


cu


Ignatius

Free online resource:

http://www.maestropoker.com/java/headsup/index.html


Wilson's Turbo Texas Hold'em has the "Heads Up analyzer"

http://www.wilsonsw.com/


Mike Caro's Poker Probe

www.conjelco.com (http://www.conjelco.com)


Paragon Poker Pal

http://shareware.qed-online.com/pokerpal.shtml


The book

Percentage Hold'Em

of course i was right on my preference.

when you compare to unpaired hands the one with the highest card is better.


http://www.maestropoker.com/

Does anyone know where I can find a table showing all the different heads-up situations. I could of course make it myself by using the links in the previous post, but I am of a somewhat lazy nature.


Regards

Hansi

You have to understand that two completely separate issues are being jumbled up in this thread.


A clearer example would be if we are in the small blind, folded to us. We know that if we raise the BB will play back with any Ace or any pair. Which hand would we rather have, A2 or KQ ?


Clearly we would rather have KQ. If our opponent folds it doesn't matter what he has. If he plays back, A2 is always a substantial underdog with just 3 outs. KQ however is only marginally behind to A-J or below, and 50-50 against any underpair. KQ is a better hand against the range of hands that our opponent can hold if he plays back.


However, A2 is a small favourite over KQ heads up ! Give this some thought, it's not intuitive, but it's a very important concept in short-stacked play.


Andy.

Thanks so much for these resources.....

www.pokalyzer.com (http://www.pokalyzer.com)


This software includes a heads up section showing how all hands perform against all other hands heads up.

The way i read the section of the book it stated that JTs is a much better hand in a normal ring play or deep stack situation, but as he is talking about allin situations he says the A9 is the better hand. The discussion points to the change in hand values making A9 a favourite over JTs, not the other way around.

Not really. JTs does much better vs. a random hand (57.7% equity) than Q2o (47.4%).



Even in direct heads-up matches, the highest card isn't always the favorite.

<PRE>

Hold'em, 2-handed, pot 2, cost 1, preflop, full deck, 1712304 boards

4s-3s: 53.79% 7:6 (EV +0.08) 750769 wins 340421 splits 621114 losses

5d-2h: 46.21% 6:7 (EV -0.08) 621114 wins 340421 splits 750769 losses

</PRE>

Even when the 43 isn't suited, it is still a 50.78% favorite over 52o.



cu



Ignatius

This should also depend. If you're restealing or moving in behind one or more limpers or in the context of "The System", you're certainly better off with JTs.


cu


Ignatius

That was how I read it too. However I wondered if it might be close depending on the opponent's range of defending hands.


In any case I maintain that a thorough understanding of the meaning of the concept in question is much more important than knowing matchup percentages exactly.


Andy.

www.twodimes.net/poker (http://www.twodimes.net/poker)


This includes Hold'em, Hold'em/8, Omaha, Omaha/8, Stud, High-Low Stud, Stud/8, Razz, and Deuce-to-Seven Lowball.

There is a freeware program called Poker Calculator made by a Finnish guy, which can calculate the results for different hands in several games. The program can be found at the URL within this message.


I don't know how this compares to the commercial products available, but I have found it really useful.