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Jason Strasser
12-14-2004, 02:18 AM
So after realizing that my ROI at certain times during off-peak hours was hardly positive (playing against gigabet, spyhard_spb, gamboholic and company is bad!) I decided to play the 100s when the 200s look bad. They play a lot differently.

So anyway, this is level 1 assume all stacks around 1k. I get AA in the BB. 6 people limp. Yes, six. I make it 125. I get four callers. Yes, four.

Flop comes JJ9, 2 diamonds.

I check, with the intention of folding or check raising any bet (depending on if I believed the person or not), or folding or maybe calling a bet if there was a bet and a call with the option of leading a non-diamond turn (i did not have Ad).

Sound ok?
-Jason

SuitedSixes
12-14-2004, 02:36 AM
I see this flop and throw up all over myself.

Irieguy
12-14-2004, 04:09 AM
This isn't really a bad flop for the way this hand developed. With 4 callers, I'd say it's safe to say that you're up against at least 2 underpairs, if not 3. That would be the most common starting hand to limp-call with, followed by a suited connector. There are 8 cards in your opponents' hands, and 39 in the deck... so you are still a favorite to not be facing trip jacks. 9's full is certainly a possibility with this action, but mathematically not very likely.

The most likely scenario is that you are way ahead and there's somebody willing to call a huge bet with pocket 10's, 8's, 7's,etc. or K-10d. There's a reasonable chance somebody would have (and call with) worse diamonds than that... a lot worse.

If you push, you get called almost all the time and you are well ahead almost all of the time. A check-raise isn't bad, but most hands that would stab at that board would be at least willing to try and snap a suspected AK bluff... so you just risk a checked flop. If the flop is checked around, you are in trouble. The next card is going to either fill a straight, the flush, or put another undercard out that could have made a set for someone. It's also less likely somebody will call on the turn, since your flop-check followed by a push will only entice those that have you soundly beaten.

In fact, if I were to end up in a big multi-way pot with aces; the flop I would most like to see (besides an ace, of course) would be a paired board. I could do without the flush draw... but at least you have enough chips to make a call incorrect.

Irieguy

SuitedSixes
12-14-2004, 04:20 AM
I agree, I think that if it's the diamonds you're worried about, you can't risk a free card. Harrington talks about a "probe bet" (I think that's what he calls it) to see where you stand. It's gotta be enough to make calling incorrect for a flush draw, doesn't it?

I don't know what to do if you get called, though. Irie thinks a smaller PP will call, which means you almost have to push since there would be no way to differentiate between a smaller PP and a 3rd Jack? Do you just have to push here, making the diamond draw incorrect, and hoping that if you are against trip J's that you still have two outs?

lorinda
12-14-2004, 05:09 AM
I think it's okay as long as you are comfortable with who is doing what.

With that kind of flop, you'll probably find someone who tries to steal it with flush/straight/9/nothing and they can spend their chips finding out who, if anyone, has the jack for you.

I don't see you gain by doing anything else here.

Lori

stripsqueez
12-14-2004, 05:23 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I check, with the intention of folding or check raising any bet (depending on if I believed the person or not), or folding or maybe calling a bet if there was a bet and a call with the option of leading a non-diamond turn

[/ QUOTE ]

lots of ifs and ors - like you i think all plans are crappy

perhaps its hindsight but i like raising more pre-flop - theres T105 on the table and some chook(s) will probably even call a push - you would think that T350 might of made this hand a lot less risky

i dont think there is much chance of picking whether or not your behind so i dont like your plan - the same guys who casually called T125 pre-flop with garbage will play in an equally casual, strange, and mysterious way with their chips post flop - you either check/fold or commit - i like commit - that being the case i like betting out a small chunk now and pushing the rest on the turn if not raised

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

housenuts
12-14-2004, 05:33 AM
should you not make a bigger PF bet? as for the flop i'm at a serious loss of what to do. that's probably why i'm stuck at the 20's.

eastbay
12-14-2004, 05:37 AM
[ QUOTE ]
the same guys who casually called T125 pre-flop with garbage will play in an equally casual, strange, and mysterious way with their chips post flop

[/ QUOTE ]

lol.

Yeah, I think my biggest mental mistake is assuming my opponents play rationally. Often they don't.

eastbay

eastbay
12-14-2004, 05:49 AM
[ QUOTE ]
This isn't really a bad flop for the way this hand developed. With 4 callers, I'd say it's safe to say that you're up against at least 2 underpairs, if not 3. That would be the most common starting hand to limp-call with, followed by a suited connector. There are 8 cards in your opponents' hands, and 39 in the deck... so you are still a favorite to not be facing trip jacks. 9's full is certainly a possibility with this action, but mathematically not very likely.

The most likely scenario is that you are way ahead and there's somebody willing to call a huge bet with pocket 10's, 8's, 7's,etc. or K-10d. There's a reasonable chance somebody would have (and call with) worse diamonds than that... a lot worse.

If you push, you get called almost all the time and you are well ahead almost all of the time. A check-raise isn't bad, but most hands that would stab at that board would be at least willing to try and snap a suspected AK bluff... so you just risk a checked flop. If the flop is checked around, you are in trouble. The next card is going to either fill a straight, the flush, or put another undercard out that could have made a set for someone. It's also less likely somebody will call on the turn, since your flop-check followed by a push will only entice those that have you soundly beaten.

In fact, if I were to end up in a big multi-way pot with aces; the flop I would most like to see (besides an ace, of course) would be a paired board. I could do without the flush draw... but at least you have enough chips to make a call incorrect.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with all of that except the minor claim that I want to see an ace. I'm of the opinion that I definitely don't want to see an ace on the flop. That leaves one ace out, and the vast majority of players shut down with an ace on board when they hold underpairs.

eastbay

Unarmed
12-14-2004, 09:37 AM
[ QUOTE ]

With that kind of flop, you'll probably find someone who tries to steal it with flush/straight/9/nothing and they can spend their chips finding out who, if anyone, has the jack for you.


[/ QUOTE ]

Great post.

lorinda
12-14-2004, 11:10 AM
Of course, it should read flush/straight(Draws)/9/nothing, but you get the idea /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Lori

Gigabet
12-14-2004, 11:51 AM
I fold AA in this situation nearly everytime, if the board is paired with 7s, then I don't mind playing the hand out. But why bother here, it is level one, and you have plenty of time to build without taking a risk at this point. Four limpers? Someone will have limped with KJ or QJ, those hands look like AA to Party Poker fish. I would make the same bet as my preflop raise on the flop, then ck the turn, and then if it is still my lead, bet around 175 on the river. If you are raised(unless I am the one raising of course, then by all means, fire back) then just fold and move on. I fold AA in multiway pots probably too much, but I don't need that hand to win, and neither does anyone who is taking the time and effort to read this post. That effort in itself is enough to show you can beat PP, or if not now, very soon.

adanthar
12-14-2004, 12:04 PM
Well, Party fish love raising with very little and coldcalling with trip jacks. So, I also check the flop, but my approximate plan is:

-Fold to any bet/raise/coldcall or bet/minraise;
-Fold to any bet with 2 or more callers;
-CR an LP bet with the intention of folding to a coldcall;
-Call an EP bet with 0-1 callers and play cautiously on the turn even if it's the 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

Sound good?

The Yugoslavian
12-14-2004, 01:26 PM
Giga,

I'm glad to see you haven't given up on 2+2 completely yet (not that I believed your post to that effect in the MTT forum anyway). /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I am particularly intersted to see that you probably fold AA here. I'm liable to push this flop even though I play in even fishier (assumption of course) SNGs (10/1-30/3) where more players are liable to have AJ (most raise PF with this though) or KJ/QJ junk (not terribly likely IMO). These same fishy players also will call with any pair or even overcards -- I'd be overbetting the pot and many low limit players take this the wrong way and call.

Jason,

From watching many 215 games (no 109s though) and reading about them and 109s on this forum it seems that most high limit players are looking for most edges they can get. If this is the case then I think Irie's analysis is dead on - statistically you should be fine against random hands and are actually doing better as most hands that will call you preflop will not contain a J. It seems most calling hands would be pocket pairs or suited broadways so only 5 hands bother me: AJs, KJs, QJs (?!), JTs (?!) or JJ.

I also feel a preflop raise to ~200-250 may be better. You have tons of pot equity so your raise is probably fine (theoretically you shouldn't mind many limpers). However, I'd rather narrow the field to make post flop play decisions easier and lower the risk of busting with this hand.

From reading the posts in this thread I actually like the idea of checking (Lorinda posted I think) -- especially if you have notes on any of the players in the hand. You may very well see an aggressive player go all-in with a flush draw or on a bluff and then see a solid player call allowing you to fold to his jack(s).

So Jason, while the results are inconsequential /images/graemlins/wink.gif ... what happened?
/images/graemlins/grin.gif

betgo
12-14-2004, 01:40 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I'd say it's safe to say that you're up against at least 2 underpairs, if not 3. That would be the most common starting hand to limp-call with, followed by a suited connector.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is unlikely 4 players have pairs or suited connectors. You are probably up against a pair, a suited connector, and a couple of fish with A7 or KT or something.

I think you have to hope no one has a J and play like you have the current nuts. It is probably best to push with the potential flush and straight draws out there.

Nick B.
12-14-2004, 01:43 PM
[ QUOTE ]

So after realizing that my ROI at certain times during off-peak hours was hardly positive (playing against gigabet, spyhard_spb, gamboholic and company is bad!) I decided to play the 100s when the 200s look bad. They play a lot differently.


[/ QUOTE ]

The 100's are the easiest sng's that exist. I can beat the 200's, but right now am in the 100's because they are sooooo much easier.

Jason Strasser
12-14-2004, 03:49 PM
I check, first player to act bets 200 and one player cold calls. I fold.

Turn, check check.

River, check check.

KdQs beats QdTc with king high.

I still like my play.

unfrgvn
12-14-2004, 04:21 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I check, first player to act bets 200 and one player cold calls. I fold.

Turn, check check.

River, check check.

KdQs beats QdTc with king high.

I still like my play.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a $100 SNG? (Note to self, grow a pair of nads and start playing higher levels.)

The cold caller would have scared me into folding. I would have called the $200 if everyone else had folded, then pushed at the turn. I don't believe someone would lead out that big at the pot if he had the J.

Irieguy
12-14-2004, 05:28 PM
Well, this result illustrates what I think is the essence of playing out of position in SNGs. If there's going to be some poker played in a hand... I want to be the one doing the "outplaying." That means I want to have position. If I don't have position, then it's value-bet time.

So, I'd ask myself the question "if I bet big and get called, am I likely to have a positive expectation?" If the answer is yes, then the situation I most want to avoid is letting somebody outplay me (ie, getting me to fold the best hand.) When you are out of position, it is easy to get outplayed... not because your opponents play well (they rarely do below the $215's), but because they play poorly. They overvalue hands, they get desperate, they get nervous, they get confused. When people are desperate, nervous, and confused, they resort to instinct... and most people's poker instint tells them (incorrectly) to call.

So if you have big values out of position, I think it's best to exchange the possibility of getting outplayed for the possibility of realizing the expectation of a novice's error. This usually means an overbet.

I think this is precisely the situation this hand illustrates. You have a hand that rates to be the best most of the time, and there are several poor players behind you who rate to make a mistake. More importantly, your position creates a situation where a mistake by your opponents becomes indistinguishable from a slow-play. If you check and somebody bets... you have to fold if there's a call. BUT, PEOPLE LOVE TO CALL. It's the most common error in poker. I think it's a mistake to allow an opponent's error to force a bad fold. Instead, let them make the same mistake by calling your bet.

Gigabet's reply caused me to think long and hard about this hand, because he's a better player than I am and I'm always looking for things that separate me from the best players. I understand his point, and losing chips in a multiway pot in level 1 is generally bad poker. However, passing up on sound opportunities to realize a nice + expectation just because it's early is also bad poker. Gigabet says he folds aces in multiway pots "probably too often." I agree. Most of us mortal players get married to hands in multiway pots "probably too often."

In this case, however, the opportunity seems clear. You are ahead, and there is a line forming to pay you off. Get the chips.

Irieguy

zephyr
12-14-2004, 06:03 PM
Great post! I think it may be one of the most thoughtful post I've ever read. Your read on the psychology of poor players is spot on. Thank you.

Zephyr

Tosh
12-14-2004, 06:14 PM
[ QUOTE ]

The 100's are the easiest sng's that exist. I can beat the 200's, but right now am in the 100's because they are sooooo much easier.

[/ QUOTE ]

Found the exact same thing, the 200's at times can be quite tough and barely beatable. Not much incentive to play them when the 100's are a lot easier, especially more so the last 2 months. Maybe the step tourneys will change that.

Inthacup
12-14-2004, 06:28 PM
Given that action, I would have folded too.

DonButtons
12-14-2004, 11:23 PM
Thats an easy and fast lay down.

I was playing yesterday, and a couple friends passed by to say hi, and at one of the tables the same situation came up.

AA in the big blind, 5 callers. I make it 150 in 15/30 blinds.

Flop comes JJ9. All check. I bet half pot. One person calls.

Turn, check/check.

River, I check/ He bets half pot/ Im about to fold and my friends start screaming call dude, I tell them its to early, blah blah, he bets me $500 that my aces are good, I said sure, called, and was showed J10s from UTG.

I came back to win 600 for 2nd so that was pretty profitable.

texasrattlers
12-14-2004, 11:24 PM
[ QUOTE ]
i like commit - that being the case i like betting out a small chunk now and pushing the rest on the turn if not raised

[/ QUOTE ]

even if a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif falls on the turn?

raptor517
12-15-2004, 04:12 AM
well strassa, it appears as though u havent played too many of the 109s. ppl limp call WAY too many hands. i like the raise preflop, its a good amount that will get out most of the junk, well, should get out most of the junk. in my mind, with 5 people seeing the flop, a paired board with a flush draw is the WORST possible flop. i totally disagree with irie on that point. i never want to see the board paired. that means jq, jk, and aj all beat u. some people might even mess around with 10j. 99 is also a possibility. i check with the intention of folding, at least 90% of the time. the other times when im so mad that a paired board comes i lead out for about 175, then fold to a raise and curse myself for betting in the first place. the flop i want to see is k83 rainbow.

stripsqueez
12-15-2004, 04:38 AM
[ QUOTE ]
even if a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif falls on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

i was thinking that as i replied earlier - i might fold if that happens (although i'm probably all-in if that hand is out)

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

Jason Strasser
12-15-2004, 04:50 AM
You get more information, IMO, by checking here and reacting to your opponents. Your stack is just not big enough to lead into a crowd of people on this type of board and adjust correctly. Any decent sized bet means that you have committed nearly half your stack to the pot. I hate being in spots where I lead at this type of flop and have to fold.

Generally, with a multi-way pot and a board like this, a jack will generally show itself on the flop because of the need to price out other draws. So I have no problem with my line here. Leading out and getting called is bad, because I never know what to do on the turn.

The bottom line is that you get less information from your opponents by betting, and more info by checking... You also are not pot committed if you check.

-Jason

Mr_J
12-15-2004, 05:08 AM
The JJ doesn't worry me. I think it would've been pushed harder. Very possible someone has a jack, maybe a coinflip that someone does. Since you have multiple callers, I'd play it anyway.

I see this as better than a coinflip to more than double your stack.

Sluss
12-15-2004, 09:05 AM
I would probably play this hand the same way.

However, Gigabet's post interests me. One of the big problems here is commiting too many chips to a dead hand. Leading out small at this pot (another 125)is interesting. Your probably going to get a call from a Jack. Or you could also get exactly what happened in this hand. No one has a Jack. So everyone will slow down after a cold call or two. If a diamond hits or one of the callers starts to get aggressive you can get away from this hand with 750 or so chips. Or it can be checked down and you come up with a nice early pot.