Weak play, or right play

[drewjustdrew]

On the bubble in Pstars $20 w/rebuys NL tourney. I have about 16000 which is probably 30th out of 37. Limits i think are 1000-2000 with 100 ante. UTG I get QQ. Perfect opportunity to move up in chips? I folded. I had gone all in several times before, but did not like the situation given that it was the bubble.

Results: finished 13th.

For what it's worth, while still on the bubble, in the small blind two hands later, I went all in with a 2-3 off because I had the big blind covered by $6000. He folded of course.

[zaxx19]

Uhh, what was the minimum cash here?? Also when did the minimum jump and how far did it go up?? And what was the avg stack at the time??

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]

On the bubble in Pstars $20 w/rebuys NL tourney. I have about 16000 which is probably 30th out of 37. Limits i think are 1000-2000 with 100 ante. UTG I get QQ. Perfect opportunity to move up in chips? I folded. I had gone all in several times before, but did not like the situation given that it was the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Getting a premium hand after raising several times is the perfect situation. Your fold is awful.

[zaxx19]

I thought that at first but...

1) If his stack is pathetically small compared to the median or Avg

2)There is no jump from 30th ---say...20th and the stack is so small that even with a double up its doubtful he will make a jump.

3)He KNOWS mathematically the probabilty of making the bubble without being anted off is like 90%.

Then wouldnt the fold be EV+/???

All that being said I WONT FOLD QQ HERE unless I need rent money or baby formula from cashing.

[Jdanz]

with 8 times the blind this is a balls ass terrible fold. There are two hands in the deck you don't want calling and if they're not out you get a 20% increase in your stack, or a lot of chips in the middle as a big to very big favorite. It doens't matter if he's short stacked compared to the field in this situation it's more important how he is compared to the blind. And he's fine. And his chips needed to go in.

-JDanz

[RikJms]

Don't take this the wrong way, but you sound like a player that plays to cash, not win. With the payout structure usually starting at anywhere from 1 to 3 percent for the first few people out in the money, to 25 to 40 percent for the winner it might be worth it to take more risks while on the bubble to accumulate chips so that you can have a better chance of winning later on.

Especially since most people will play like you in that situation by folding hand after hand until they get into the money, then bow out, not giving themselfs any realistic chance to win the big money, because they were too concerned about the 1 to 3 percent

Say first money is 50 dollars, and first place is 500 dollars. You would have to cash 10 times just to make the same money as you would have if you had won, and in those 10 tournaments you would have had to bought in 10 more times than if you won just one tournament. 20 dollar buy-in means that you paying 200 to win 500. However if you go for the win it is just 20 to win 500.

Remember tournament pros usually survive by winning a few tournaments a year, rather than cashing in many tournaments.

[TStoneMBD]

some of you guys are so weak tight, sorry for the insults but folding this is pretty pathetic.

[Lurshy]

Weak - Agreed.

And it was the perfect time to go in, because after several all in bluffs, you may get called by 66 or A7 (or worse) in a short stack, because they are frustrated watching you steal, and need to make a move.

[dmk]

Easy all-in. If this needs an explanation, by all means respond asking for one and I'll put a post together. Actually, I'd rather hear the reasoning behind folding, because I can't come up w/ a single one.

[drewjustdrew]

Average stack was about $52000.

36th place was about $120. 1st place about $5200.

It was pokerstars, so next limit went to 1500-3000 $150 ante I believe.

[drewjustdrew]

It might have been bad, but not awful in my OPINION (no proof). I'll give my thought process in response to a later poster.

[drewjustdrew]

These were most of the points I considered. As I said in another response, my play may not have been the best, but it wasn't horrible either. Too extreme.

[drewjustdrew]

8 times the big blind, but 4 times the cost per round. It was about $4000 per round. there are many more hands than two that i don't want calling here. Any ace, any king, AA, KK. Plus potential for suckout. In later position, i make the play, but with 7 to act behind me, 6 with substantially more chips, I figured a call was likely and I would be AT BEST a 66% favorite. Now, you think that is automatic, and maybe it is, but AT BEST means I could have been much lower.

[drewjustdrew]

The payout structures have flattened out since a lot of the literature on tourney play has been written. While finishing in top 3 or 5 is still the best result, it is not the end all be all of tournament goals. Especially when near the money.

If I have an average stack, I make the raise. I was at about the worst stack amount for my decision. I had enough to virtually guarantee making money, but not enough to force people to fold to an all-in if they held overcards.

I don't play weak-tight usually, and when I do I have strategic reasons.

[ QUOTE ]
Remember tournament pros usually survive by winning a few tournaments a year, rather than cashing in many tournaments.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are not that many tournament pros surviving on tournaments.

[drewjustdrew]

marginal IMO (obviously)

[Potowame]

This is Bad Bad thought process.

I would push JJ and 1010 here with that stack, my bubble dosn't start till 20 players, I define the bubble for myself as the 20 - final table. Most of the time I am very aggressive around the "bubble" and it pays off when players are folding hands like QQ utg. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[drewjustdrew]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy all-in. If this needs an explanation, by all means respond asking for one and I'll put a post together. Actually, I'd rather hear the reasoning behind folding, because I can't come up w/ a single one.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, here is my explanation for any interested:

1. On the spot decision (no math calculated, just some very rough estimates)
2. I have 16000, Avg stack is 52000. There are 5 or so players behind me in chips (8000 or less), one of which will be knocked out soon. This guarantees me $120.
3. If I go all in and no one calls I go to $20,000.
4. If I go all in and am called and win, I go to $36000
5. If I go all in and lose (assuming the one short stack doesn't call). I am out. Result $0.

I would say at this point, stealing the blinds is the same as folding because $4000 is inconsequential, so the main issue is getting called. The odds that I am called are fairly substantial. The odds of me winning the tournament if I double up are still fairly remote, though not close to inconceivable. With $36000 on a double up, i have 2% of the chips. Therefore I should win 1 time in 50 all things being equal. $5200 for first place puts the value of winning at $104. With the payouts for placing 2-9,10-18,19-27 also being higher, it possibly would have been a no brainer decision if we ASSUME i double up and win the hand.

If we are not exactly on the bubble guaranteeing me cashing, I make the raise automatically.

I was fairly sure how the people here would post, but I made an unusual play and wanted to see if anyone would have made the same considerations I did. It sounds like Zaxx thought about it for a second and didn't go into autobet mode. Everybody else played their cards only (and may have made a better decision than me in the process). This should not be an automatic play.

[drewjustdrew]

My bubble changes based on my results leading up to the bubble. I think that should be a consideration when considering expected value.

[zaxx19]

Good analysis I was prepared to whip out the Donkey label and other assorted chidings...then remembered a MTT I had recently played. It paid 30 and like 10-30 were almost identical payouts bc it was a low buyin. Also there was a HUGE gulf in stack size between 1-13 and 13-35 that had developed for whatever reason( statistically this WILL happen at times) perhaps the fact that UB plays with its table assignments in odd ways iunno. In that case playing to cash might NOT be a horrible thing transgression there. I hate laying QQ anytime deep into a tourney and rarely have done it(perhaps 5 times??) and I probably DONT LAY IT HERE but in some situations the move maybe muddled at best.

[dmk]

[ QUOTE ]
I would say at this point, stealing the blinds is the same as folding because $4000 is inconsequential

[/ QUOTE ]
I disagree here. $4000 is very consequential - it's currently 25% of your stack. If all of the short-stacks fold until they're blinded out, you'll be down to $8000 when the average is ~$55,000 and the blinds are bound to be 1500/3000 by then, which means you have 1.5 orbits left to live. $4000 is extremely significant to you right now.

[ QUOTE ]
... so the main issue is getting called. The odds that I am called are fairly substantial. The odds of me winning the tournament if I double up are still fairly remote, though not close to inconceivable. With $36000 on a double up, i have 2% of the chips. Therefore I should win 1 time in 50 all things being equal. $5200 for first place puts the value of winning at $104. With the payouts for placing 2-9,10-18,19-27 also being higher, it possibly would have been a no brainer decision if we ASSUME i double up and win the hand.


[/ QUOTE ]
I don't like this kind of reasoning. That's like saying that by buying into a 2000 person event you have a 1/2000 chance of winning 1st, which pays out 400x buy-in. Hence, you're getting bad odds to play, so you shouldn't even enter. You can't just say "50 ppl left, i have 2% chance of winning." It has a lot more to do w/ your relative stack size and how much of a better player you are compared to the rest of the field - another reason you want more chips when you have an insanely good situation (like QQ...)
[ QUOTE ]

If we are not exactly on the bubble guaranteeing me cashing, I make the raise automatically.


[/ QUOTE ]
Let me ask you this...if you have AKs or KK do you go all-in or fold? If so, you're putting your opponents that call on waaaaaay too narrow a range of hands. The difference between having KK/AK and QQ here are negligable. You're basically saying that opponents will only call your QQ raise w/ AA/KK/AK, which is completely weak thinking.
[ QUOTE ]
I was fairly sure how the people here would post, but I made an unusual play and wanted to see if anyone would have made the same considerations I did. It sounds like Zaxx thought about it for a second and didn't go into autobet mode. Everybody else played their cards only (and may have made a better decision than me in the process). This should not be an automatic play.

[/ QUOTE ]
If making it into the money is your sole concern, then you made the right choice. If placing first is what you want to do in this tournament, then pushing is clearly the correct, and should be automatic, play.

[drewjustdrew]

cashing is not my only goal, but neither is coming in first. I was not planning on folding into the money, it was just likely given the circumstances. If I had a good situation, like not being UTG or have KK or AA.

KK is much better than QQ in this situation. It takes the edge away from people playing KJ, KT, K9. All likely to be played given our relative stack sizes.

[Potowame]

Okay, but I just find it funny that you fold QQ utg and push 23os from the SB. So you pass up a what you think is a 66% edge and two hands later push a dog to any hand from the small blind in a obvious steal position that is going to be called alt more than your UTG push. just makes no sense.

[dmk]

What about my other points? I'm really not worried about a bare A or K calling me here. I'd welcome the 70% chance of doubling up if he/she calls.

[dmk]

Also, I think you're waaaaay overestimating how often you get called here.

[Potowame]

Why not at least mini-raise here, if you are wanting to play conservative? Push to a favorable flop?

[ctide]

[ QUOTE ]
In later position, i make the play, but with 7 to act behind me, 6 with substantially more chips, I figured a call was likely and I would be AT BEST a 66% favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't cash in tournaments very often do you?

PRO TIP: QQ is an 80% favorite over smaller pocket pairs.

[drewjustdrew]

I can't go bust with the 2nd play. Both are strictly tournament decisions. Not about having the best hand before the flop.

[scott8]

Perhaps sickening to play a MTT and finish just out of the money, but I find it just as sickening that you would pass up a premium hand b/c you are afraid of the bare ace or some other call. A double puts you in a position to really do damage if you get another hand.
I just can't imagine how squeaking into the bottom money is worth passing up a giant statistical edge. I may be wrong, but usually the bottom levels of payouts in a MTT is rarely more than double your entry fee, if even that, and a double up in this situation may surge you pass half the remaining field. For what its worth. . .
-Scott

[drewjustdrew]

Again, I do not disagree with anyone who says they go all in. I am just saying it isn't automatic for all situations and mine might invite unorthodox (you may call it incorrect) play.

As to your points, you would win 70% of the time, but that does not guarantee a jump in prize money to the level beyond 36th. You are still below average. So 30% you are out, 70% you are still below average on chips and 9 players away from moving up. Folding, you are guaranteed (barring playing an even better situation and losing) 36th.

If anything, I think my fold provided some good discussion here.

[drewjustdrew]

[ QUOTE ]
a double up in this situation may surge you pass half the remaining field.

[/ QUOTE ]

It wouldn't have, but I understand your point.

Believe me guys, I understand all the concepts you have given me, but I just think there are certain situations that call for tournament specific plays. Folds that are usually raises, raises that are usually folds, etc. It appears you all feel this isn't one of them, but I would be inclined to believe the decision was marginal as are most hands discussed here. Easy decisions do not generate much discussion. I know you think I am not getting it, but I do understand all of your points.

[Nick B.]

No matter how many different ways you try to explain it, this is just an awful fold.

[dmk]

[ QUOTE ]

Believe me guys, I understand all the concepts you have given me, but I just think there are certain situations that call for tournament specific plays.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't think you understand. The tournament specific play here is all-in, no matter how you slice it.

[wayabvpar]

I pray that all of my MTT opponents think the way you do. I push here every single time without batting an eye.

[davidross]

Very very weak.

I can only imagine doing this if this was a satellite and all 30 places paid the same, and you were 98% sure you could fold into the money. THe fact that it worked this time,l or even if you had been up against AA and lost should be irrelevant. You should evaluate your decisions based on what would happen aver hundreds of similar decisions. You (I assume) are still trying to win the tournament. You cna't pass on the 3rd best hand because you're afraid Ax will call you and hit.

[Bigwig]

The $4000 is not inconsequential. At this stage in tourney, I might add, you want to be called by AKo. The only hands you should be less than thrilled about are AKs, KK, and AA, and AKs is still acceptable.

You must push QQ in this spot. What hand are you waiting for? I'm ecstatic about my Q's here. Q's are good.

[drewjustdrew]

I do not think this way all the time. The circumstances around the entire hand made me consider more than just me having the 3rd best hand.

I do not have the math skills (inclination really) to figure out the ev on this hand raised all-in vs folding, but I doubt it was as horrible as you all think.

To all who said it was weak, I agree 100%. Weak is not always a horrible play though. Just much of the time. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[bweiser8311962]

what hand are you waiting for? i've gone 5, 6 tournaments in a row without seeing Aces or Kings. ... i could never fold Aces, but I'm not Phil Hellmuth.

I won't say it's awful, because it was your strategy, but UTG you are about to lose 3,000 chips to blinds on the next two hands where you will probably have 9/2o.. then6/3o...maybe you get folded around to in the big blind, then can fold out of the small blind and be where you were at, but you won't get better cards in the next 12 hands to make a big move.

[HoldingFolding]

I think this is a very important point. Any push from UTG is going to get lot more respect than an obvious blind steal from around CO. Remember everyone else is worried about the bubble too; I don't think you need to be that worried about Ax except from a very big stack.

[zaxx19]

Drew this is a little off topic but where do you live in NW suburbs??? Do you playt live?? and where?? Know off any live play hush hush type stuff???