To Turn Pro or Not To Turn Pro?

[scotty34]

I've been reading this forum for only a couple of weeks now, and am relatively new to the whole poker forum experience, but I noticed something interesting while doing so.

I've seen numerous threads on various forums from people thinking of turning pro and want advice or feedback for their decision. The usual case is a young college student who no longer wants to get a job, and thinks poker is the way they can make their living. This is the standard, but there have been some other different scenarios.

What I've noticed is that no matter the scenario, roughly 80-90% of the response is along the lines of "No, you are throwing your life away." There is also the occasional "Go for it," but this is rare.

My question is this: In what scenario would their be a reversal in this trend? When would the replies to a "should I turn pro?" thread be positive?

The only answer I can see is that a person should turn pro in the case of they KNOW they are a winning player, they KNOW they make more money playing poker than a standard job, and they KNOW they have the drive and determination to keep this lifestyle up. However, if this were the case, there would not be a need to make an "advice wanted" post in a forum anyways.

Just curious as to the thoughts on this, and what scenarios may exist that would gain positive response.

[GrannyMae]

define pro, and i will take a stab

internet or B&M?

tourneys or cash games?

limit or NL?

what stakes?

necessity for instant gratification?
(i.e. extremely well funded for normal expenses entering the game, or coming in light?)

[scotty34]

By pro, I meant a general definition: playing poker as one's primary source of income. The form of poker played is not particularly relevant.

[dogmeat]

I'll give you that 10-15% response -

TURN PRO

You only live once.

Poker will never be this hot again, EVER!

What do you lose if you can't make it? A few months, a year?

Why not give it a try and see what happens? Look at it like a new job. Plenty of people try a job, hate it, quit, and get another. This is no different.

Things will be the same when you get back from a poker adventure, won't they?

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[GrannyMae]

of course it is relevant. that's exactly why i asked.

we are on the verge of sponsorship the likes could never, ever have been imagined. NLHE, high buy-in MTT's run around the clock. casinos are swimming with clueless fish. etc

turning pro could be defined a million ways and discussing ways to do it right depends on the route one is looking at. there are brand new opportunities for truly talented players to make a great living and it does not get discussed much here.

[scotty34]

Ok, well what I had more in mind was mostly those people who think they can start around 2/4 and work their way up the limits until they are 4-tabling 5/10 and earning their ~$40 an hour.

However, I am also interested in the discussion which you just brought up regarding high stakes MTT's etc. I have no intentions of turning pro myself (I'm not even legal here for another month), but its definetly something I am interested to hear about, and who knows, maybe some years down the road I'll change my mind.

[Cubswin]

The only answer I can see is that a person should turn pro in the case of they KNOW they are a winning player, they KNOW they make more money playing poker than a standard job,

I dont think you should necessarily turn pro if you make more money at poker then you could at a more traditional job. You must consider the long-term EV of both of these careers and not just the income potential at this point in time. My point is... just because you may make more money at this point in time playing poker then you would at a 9-5 doesnt mean that poker is the better EV play.

cubs

[scotty34]

Sorry, I should have also added I was assuming that this person has a love for poker, and wants to pursue it as a career because it would be enjoyable. When you talk about EV in this sense, desire definetly becomes relevant as well. Many people would far rather take a 50K a year job that they like as opposed to a 70K a year job that they hate.

[GMan42]

I agree wholeheartedly about looking at the long-term. In my case, it's not a career I'd mind doing for the next 30 years or so if someone could guarantee internet poker would still be around. However, the fact that Congress could turn around tomorrow and decide to go after online gambling makes this a very risky proposition. Last thing I'd want to do is have to start spending 8 hrs/day at a B&M cardroom, or try desperately to explain a several-year "gap" in my employment while groveling for another 9-5 job. I'm pretty happy making poker a 2nd income that I'd be disappointed, but not crushed, to lose.

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, well what I had more in mind was mostly those people who think they can start around 2/4 and work their way up the limits until they are 4-tabling 5/10 and earning their ~$40 an hour.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate to rain on the parade, but if you've got any delusion about this profitable trend continuing indefinitely, then you're in for a rude awakening.

All of the limits from 2/4 to 15/30 are becoming infested by tight/aggressive multitablers. They're like cockroaches, and they're rapidly multiplying. Now, you'll see three or four at every table. Last year, you might have seen one or two. Next year, you'll see six or seven. The fish ponds will then dry out relatively quickly.

[dragon14]

In the case of a college student they have both a month long Christmas break and a 3 month summer break to try out being a pro.

All I would advise someone is to play full-time over winter break and if they like it, then play full-time summer break. They should keep registered for school until they are sure they wish to take a break. Taking a semester or two off is really no big deal.

If someone enjoys the college environment and poker, then they should simply go to school part-time and play poker the rest. There's nothing terrible that will happen to a person if they indulge a short-term dream or ambition.

In my college years I disliked being a full-time student but I felt my only options were school or a bad full-time job. It's nice that some younger people today have other options and can take advantage of them.

I can see their parents freaking out at them, but if they simply go part-time and do well at both school and poker, what's the problem?

[BradleyT]

If you don't have a skillset to get a job that pays $40,000+ a year with potential for raises of 5-15% per year I'd say going pro is a good alternative.

As for me, I'll happily keep my job and make $10-15K from poker for a few hours a day (all it takes is $30/day to hit over $10K for the year, bonuses alone can get you near that).

[teddyFBI]

i did it and i blog here: www.zbasic.com/pokerblog.html (http://www.zbasic.com/pokerblog.html)

feel free to read my drop-out-of-law-school-to-play-poker story

[xxx]

[ QUOTE ]
i did it and i blog here: www.zbasic.com/pokerblog.html (http://www.zbasic.com/pokerblog.html)



[/ QUOTE ]

Teddy- what do the different colors on your graph stand for?

[mannika]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i did it and i blog here: www.zbasic.com/pokerblog.html (http://www.zbasic.com/pokerblog.html)



[/ QUOTE ]

Teddy- what do the different colors on your graph stand for?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was under the impression that one was straight winnings, and the other was winnings + rakeback. I could be wrong though.

[LALDAAS]

[ QUOTE ]
I've had an enormous amount of fun over the past 4 months playing poker; enough money to pay the bills and have fun with my friends, no fixed schedule, no one else's expectations to meet. Just enjoying myself for the first time in a while. I just hate the fact that it seems like our entire sociological hierarchy is set up to indoctrinate us with the idea that we're meant to subvert our own happiness to fit into an external mold of what others believe to be honorable or ritcheous life pursuits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Teddy I read your blog. Amen Brother!

[Jay36489]

[ QUOTE ]
we are on the verge of sponsorship the likes could never, ever have been imagined.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you mean by that granny?

[ QUOTE ]
there are brand new opportunities for truly talented players to make a great living and it does not get discussed much here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well please discuss /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Paul2432]

I read your blog. I think your goal of $2000/week playing 3/6 is a little optimistic. Even a very good player would probably need to play 15,000+ hands/week. That many hands will rapidly lead to burnout for nearly anyone.

Paul

[AncientPC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
there are brand new opportunities for truly talented players to make a great living and it does not get discussed much here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well please discuss /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the most famous players are trying to branch out and make money from the poker market besides just poker itself. This is evident in books, DVDs, private tutoring, sponsorship, etc.

[twankerr]

I think he is referring to the PPT and how the sponsors are putting up the prize money. It will become like the PGA tour soon enough.

[GrannyMae]

yes. i was referring to the PPT but there is likely to be several other forms of the PPT, as this is owned by the WPT.

there will be other pro tours where the sponsors put up the entire prize pool (with free entry), and then there will be player funded tourneys where a sponsor will add large cheese to the prize pool.

lots of good things coming, but not limited to PPT

[teddyFBI]

you got it: red line is winnings plus rakeback -- as you can see, rakeback is a pretty big chunk of my take-home $...I feel pretty foolish for ever having played without it.

Yes, $2,000 / week turned out to be a little optimistic...I'm averaging about $1,500 / week so far though, so it's going alright.

[TheMetetron]

Well, I am going to be making the jump in approximately a month or so too. Starting out 8-tabling $5/10 (same as I do part-time now), though I do plan to extend that to 12 tables and $15/30 sometime within the next year /images/graemlins/smile.gif I do intend to blog it, but more on that later /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
though I do plan to extend that to 12 tables and $15/30 sometime within the next year /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
lol

[6471849653]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you lose if you can't make it? A few months, a year?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ten years.

[MicroBob]

Yeah....I saw Sexton's column on the PPT in Cardplayer and thought pretty much the same thing.

Previously, making it via big-money MTT's was pretty tough.
But now it looks like the 'name' players will get to play in their fair-share of $500k free-rolls each year.
This alone adds a lot of EV to trying to win your way into the invited field somehow.
Basically, it helps the type of tourney-pro who is overextending his bankroll, taking too many stakes in himself, and is constantly at risk of busting out.



To the original question: I don't know if it's just blind 'your in college so you should stay there.' Certainly SOME have this opinion....but so many of the posts also contain other info that seems relevent.

"I'm 20 and can't even pick a major...and I don't want to work a boring old 9-to-5 anyway...and I'm REALLY good and have been winning 9BB/100 in my last 5k hands so, unless pokertracker is lying to me, I KNOW I am REALLY good. And I have a really big bankroll of 300BB's because that's how much you're supposed to have."
etc etc etc.

Anyone that doesn't understand any of the fundamentals should NOT be going pro....and there are many that don't understand.

If you really need to ask how much you can make multi-tabling 3/6 then you certainly aren't ready to try the pro-route yet.
Honestly, it's not that hard to figure out that on 3/6, 4-tables at 1BB/hr on each table (about 1.7BB/100 or so) is about $25/hr....and that 40 hours of that per week is $1k/wk (which is $50k/yr btw).

you WILL have fluctuations. you DO need to be sufficiently bankrolled...and you should ALREADY have a good idea of what the variance is, how many hands you should have to know you are a winning player and what your bankroll should be.
Hell, some people respond "Gee...figure out my monthly expenses ahead of time? I guess that really IS a good idea."


Obviously, not all of the posts have this many misconceptions about it...some of them are rather insightful and seem to be coming from decent players.


Before I 'took the plunge' I just treated it like a second job. I could sign-out early from 'work' and get going on my 2nd job. I was at 25 hours a week at work and 30 hours a week of online-poker and I was making more clicking away at home then I was at work.
when i left work I looked at it as a 1-2 month 'poker vacation' or something like that. I was completely prepared to come crawling back to my job if I needed to.

Why more aspiring 'pros' don't simply play hard every weekend to build their roll or take a 7-14 day online-poker sabbaticle to see how they do is really beyond me.


I also didn't need to ask for 'permission' to do it on these forums.
I was going to try it out and see how I liked it. I knew how much I was making per hour online and how much I was making at work so I took a shot.


There are a LOT of people who post that they are thinking about trying it who clearly have NOT thought it all out.


The previous issues brought up that the games may not continue to be great (although I still think they'll continue to be good) and that the U.S. govt can make things kinda tough for everyone are extremely valid.

But, if worse comes to worse then I'm back to my old job...or perhaps trying a new one (not sure if I would really want to be a B&M pro). Possibilities aplenty.


Other issues include:
- health insurance (and other work benefits)
- pretty much working alone (lack of social interaction)
- feelings of not doing something that is truly 'worthwhile'
- gaps in one's resume
- disapproval from peers (family, friends, dates)
- total burn-out from playing 10k hands a week (thus dreading a 'hobby' you used to enjoy),
- trying to motivate yourself to 'work'
- for some....it can be very stressful
- i'm sure a few other i can't remember right now


I'm not trying to be overly negative. I really am enjoying this life (8 months and going strong) and am not interested in trading it currently. But these ARE issues that can get in the way for many.

Obviously, some of the benefits include:
- setting one's own hours (and days and weeks)
- taking vacation whenever one feels like it
- taking your job with you on vacation (or family visits...which don't necessarily qualify as 'vacation' a lot of the time??)
- watch the ball-game on TV and listen to whatever music you like while 'working'
- for someone like me, better income (I was making $500/wk at my previous job)
- not having to deal with annoying/mean/condescending bosses/supervisors
- for some, it can be extremely NON-stressful (this is the case for me) compared with much of the regular work universe.


Those are some of my thoughts.
Carry on.

[Sephus]

just wanna say great post bob, thanks.