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View Full Version : AK gutshot


Ic3k0Ld
12-13-2004, 08:52 PM
Were all the calls post-flop as bad as they seem, and did I just get really lucky?

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop:
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MPC 3-bets</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, MPC calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MPC calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MPC calls, BB calls.

River: (10.75 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MPC raises</font>, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 14.75 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
BB has Td Kh (one pair, tens).
UTG has Qh Qc (three of a kind, queens).
MPC has Ks Ad (straight, ace high).
Outcome: MPC wins 14.75 BB. </font>

_Kevin_
12-13-2004, 09:23 PM
With all the preflop action, you have to assume your overcards are probably not good so you have 3.5 outs (the 3 non-diamond T plus a 0.5 for the diamond T). This means you need 14.4:1 to make the bet profitable. Assuming BB will call and raise or fold you are getting 14.5:1 on your bet. I think at best the flop call is very small positive and I will often fold. Even if I called the flop, I would fold the turn. You don't have odds and while it is unlikely, even the 10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif may not be good for you.