ATs on bubble, 4-handed, huge blinds, CEV/$EV comparison

[TT_fold]

In the actual hand, I folded ATs to a button raise, figuring it would better to push my next hand, where I would have the button, with any two cards. My read on the button is that he would make this raise with around the top 30% (possibly a greater range) of hands, especially since this table was SUPER-tight on the bubble.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t2635)
UTG (t4275)
Button (t3760)
Hero (t2830)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t2450</font>, Hero folds, BB folds.

Final Pot: t2600

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
No showdown. Button wins t2600. </font>

I'm starting to wonder if it would have been better to push with ATs, even though the button was obviously coming along.

If I fold, and assuming the BB folds, the stacks will look like this with me on the button:

Me - 2380
SB - 1785
BB - 4225
UTG (player who just stole) - 5110

My equity here, according to the ICM, is 21.1% of the prize pool.

If I call, then there are 2 possibilities (ignore a tie for now):

a) I call and win, stacks are:

Me - 6560
SB - 1785
BB - 4225
UTG - 930

My equity here is 37.2% of the prize pool.

b) I call and lose.

My equity is 0.

------

I then assigned my opponent the following range of hands on PokerStove.

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 54.3572 % [ 00.51 00.03 ] { AdTd }
Hand 2: 45.6428 % [ 00.42 00.03 ] { AA-22, AKs-A4s, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-A7o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }

Even against that liberal range of hands, calling is worth 20.2% of the prize pool, while folding is still worth 21.1%.

The break-even point (where calling is worth the same as folding) only comes when ATs wins 56.7% of the time against the specified range of hands.

Hand 1: 56.9176 % [ 00.54 00.03 ] { AdTd }
Hand 2: 43.0824 % [ 00.40 00.03 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K8s, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-A5o, KQo-K8o, QJo-QTo, JTo }

Sorry for such a long and redundant post, I just wanted to reassure myself that such tight play against a raiser on the bubble was indeed correct.

[rachelwxm]

I would not call all in on bubble with less than 60/40 odds of winning. I would rather waiting for spot to push first in myself.

[El Maximo]

I just took a 2nd glance at this and saw the blinds were a staggering T800. Ouch! Being in the SB makes this even tougher. The BB is down to 2BB after posting 1BB and may come along also if you push. Looking at your ICM calcs you can see its a tough decision. I think others will disagree with me but I would push. I only have 3BB left and ATs is a good hand. I think even if the button is a fairly tight player his range of hands here is wide enough to warrant a call. If the blinds were smaller I would definitely fold and wait for a better opportunity. I gamble here and hope to double up.

[SpeakEasy]

[ QUOTE ]
My read on the button is that he would make this raise with around the top 30% (possibly a greater range) of hands, especially since this table was SUPER-tight on the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's another take on this hand:

If I am the button, and especially when the table is super-tight, my "gap" is huge -- I am raising aggressively with a much lower-quality starting hand, even with junk because the steal will usually work. I am folding more hands to a raise.

If this is the button's thinking in your hand, you may be way ahead. He knows your are likely to fold, say... ATs or worse (what a coincidence that would be, eh?). Your assessment that he will raise with only the top 30% of hands seems to be way out of whack with the blind structure. I'm not criticizing your assessment of the table, it just seems like his raise could come with much lower quality hands Your math calculations should probably include a much wider range of hands for the button. Re-run the numbers and you will see this is a push for you.