Tournament EV vs. Ring Game EV vs. "Read"

The following situation arose during a single table PL HE tournament online last night. It addresses the question of "Ring Game EV" vs. "Tournament EV" vs. "Read on Opponent". I would like some opinions if you all would be so kind.


Here's the situation:


$5 buy-in PL single table tournament. It's down to 2 players; "J" & "K". It was a re-buy tourn, & "J" had re-bought 3 times @ $5 each for a total of $20, as had "K". 1st is $22.54: 2nd is $17.53, so both had to win to show a profit. (For this discussion, I am not so much concerned with the wisdom of either's rebuy strategy, given the payout).


Blinds are 75/150. "J" has 3k in chips: "K" has 2K. "J" is in the BB. "K" rr's the minimum 150, making it 300 to go, requiring "J" to put in 150 to call.


Other important information: These two have played against each other hundreds of times. "J" is clearly the stronger player by a significant amount. "J" also knows that "K" is intimidated by him, and takes advantage of it.


"J" holds J6hearts. He flat calls the rr.


Heated discussion between myself and friend about this call. We both know both players "play" well. We both agree that "J" is much stronger pre & post player than "K".


Friend says….."Bad Call: -EV, regardless of J's advantages".


I say "Call OK, as "J" can make call for minimum, fully knowing he can get away from hand very easily if no connection on flop, and it doesn't seriously impact his stack size".


We both agree that call is -EV in a ring game. Friend maintains that "-EV is -EV, and "J" should have mucked."


Both friend & I chatted with "J' after game, and here was his thinking on the play:


"I know "K"'s play inside out. I believe he's on an Ax or something like Kx or Qx to make a minimum raise like that in PL game under these situations. If he had a "real" hand, he would definitely "pot" it pre-flop. I believe that I am behind calling with J6h, but I make the flat call for the following reasons:"


- If I whiff the flop, I can easily get away from the hand.

- I have position on "K", and can play at him post flop, depending on situation.

- If I connect on the flop, I can play for his whole stack and win the tournament.


My questions to all readers therefore are:


- Is this an EV situation such as the one addressed in TPFAP where Sklansky defines the difference in "ring game" EV vs. "tournament" EV?

- Is this a situation where "read" and the specifics of this particular tournament situation justifies "J"'s flat call?


- Does the straight -EV of the call take precedence over all, and should have "J"


mucked the hand because of it regardless of other factors?


I will post results of hand after responses.


I will also post this in both Tournament and General Theory Forums to get maximum feedback.

Except for the blinds continueing to rise, this is a flat heads-up game played for the difference between 1st and 2nd. Tournament strategy equals live strategy in this spot.


Although, you must add variety to PL, I don't think J6s goes into the mix.


MS Sunshine

What are you hoping to flop with J6h? You will only flop a flush less than one in one hundred times. If you flop a Jack your opponent could be holding J10, JQ or JK and you are trapped. If you flop a 6 and two overcards also flop you are not going to be able to play it aggressively. Unless your opponent is very easily shoved off a hand by your bluffs or semi-bluffs I think you shouldnt risk your chip lead with a hand like this. Wait for a better spot. Playing these hands in PotLimit and NoLimit will cost you in the long run.


You could argue calling a raise with 72offsuit if your intent is to outplay your opponent regardless of the flop. But that was not your intention as you said if the flop didnt fit you would get away from your hand. So you are playing a weak (probably dog hand) and hoping to get lucky. And that's not what big bet poker is about.

I agree with MS that there is no difference at this point between a tourney and a cash game. Heads-up, the tourney issue goes out the window and is no longer relevant.


So, the only question here is whether playing J6s for a mini-raise is +EV or not. It might be, but since you want to fold at last occasionally so you don't totally lose your ability to represent a decent hand, you might as well pick a hand like this to fold.


But, if you really control the opponent so well that the hand is +EV, then go ahead and play it.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

I just have to say this - J would be better off putting a similar amount of thought into his rebuy strategy given that he has to win the tournament to make $2.50 and has a maximum downside of $20.


Andy.

Thanks for the responses, all.


It helped me further clarify the delineation as to what "mode" one should be thinking in under different sets of circumstances. Perhaps I'm simply "overthinking" and getting myself in trouble in the process?


FYI Andy, you are totally correct in your comment about rebuy strategy, IMO.


Results......flop was 668rb and "J" took "K"'s stack.

I played a game recently where a fish called 3 bets cold preflop in a PL game in Dundee from the cutoff with 10s4s, flop was 44x, and he beat AA for a big pot. But I know he'll never win at poker. Short term results are immaterial.

Stefan,


I totally agree about short term results being totally immaterial.


I posted the results out of courtesy to other responders, as I had said in my first post that I would do so.


My sole goal with my post was to get feedback on what exactly takes priority in that specific situation.


I also posted it in the "General Theory" Forum, and got quite an interesting response.


You might want to check it out......