Calling flop bet with small pocket pair +EV or -EV?

[LockLow34]

Hypothetical...

You limp in middle position with 55, several callers. Flop comes A94r. There's a bet and 2 callers, and you can put at least one of them on an ace.

Is it +EV or -EV to call this bet, expecting to hit your set on the turn?

I've had several situations like this recently where I've had hands like 33 or 55, mucked after the flop when I didn't hit my set, then the card comes on the turn that would have given me a set. I just want to know for sure I'm doing the right thing by mucking after the flop.

[eagletmr]

Well, there are 2 cards out of 47 to give you a set, so you need 23 to 1 odds to call. Right now you are having to call 1 small bet and I guess there are 7 or 8 of them in the pot. Not good IMO. Even though you can get a couple big bets on turn and river, you have to expect to get at least 6 BB or so to make it worth it. If they bet the turn, a couple people call, you raise and get callers, etc., this might happen, but I don't think your implied odds are good enough to make it +EV

[Smasharoo]

Hypothetical...

You limp in middle position with 55, several callers. Flop comes A94r. There's a bet and 2 callers, and you can put at least one of them on an ace.

Is it +EV or -EV to call this bet, expecting to hit your set on the turn?

I've had several situations like this recently where I've had hands like 33 or 55, mucked after the flop when I didn't hit my set, then the card comes on the turn that would have given me a set. I just want to know for sure I'm doing the right thing by mucking after the flop.


If the pot's 20 SB, by all means call. So unless you're on the button, ten people limp, then nine call the flop in front of you, folding is correct. One time in 11 you're going to see your set card spiked on the turn or the river. If that's annoying, minimize the table untill the hand's over :P

[Rico Suave]

locklow:

You are a 22.5:1 dog to hit your card on the turn, so if the pot is offering you close to that, and the board is not terribly coordinated, and hitting your card is unlikely to complete a draw, and the flop is not going to be raised behind you, then calling one more on the flop is fine. These conditions are not met all that often.

--Rico

[LockLow34]

Yes, I figured I was playing it right. Just frustrating to fold only to have the 'set' card come on the turn. In the long run it only happens once every 23 times though, so in the long run calling without odds is a losing play.

[uw_madtown]

[ QUOTE ]
If the pot's 20 SB, by all means call. So unless you're on the button, ten people limp, then nine call the flop in front of you, folding is correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course, factoring in potential backdoor flush and straight draws (if you have any -- with a low pair, the flush draw may not be good, while it might be with JJ or somesuch) and also implied odds, you can make this flop call (and fold an unimproved turn) sometimes. But almost never, as you'd need a large field with a pot that was raised pre-flop and bet into from EP. For example, the SB raises PF and 6-7 people call -- flop missed you, SB bets, all call to you on the Button. Of course, this situation occurs extremely infrequently.

Generally, if you don't hit your set with a small/mid pocket pair, it is correct to check-fold the flop. Generally. Of course, saying anything generally also generally leads to overgeneralization.