Tourney elimination/double up

Here's a question for you. I know that the key to tourney play is survival. So I'd like your thoughts on the following situation. Player A has Ad9d. Player B has JhJs. Both players have T1500 and the tourney is in early states with 60+ players left, blinds at 15/30, NLHE. Player A goes all-in. Should player B call?

I ran some simulations and calculated that A9 wins 32% of the time; JJ wins 68% of the time. You're player B. 1/3 of the time, you get knocked out, having no chance at the money. 2/3 of the time, you double up. This gives you a stack, with the time and power behind it. But, it will not get you to the final table. You'll most likely need to double up again at least once.

This happened to me last night. A very loose agressive player was raising Ax big from every position. He did so in early position, raising 200. I was in middle position with JJ. I went all in and he called. I know I had other options, like raising 200 more and going all in on the flop if it looked good. Or just called, seeing the flop. But I am curious about the elimination factor vs doubling up. I was sure I was ahead. I also am not factoring in the chance he'll fold, let's assume he'll always call.


Fred

Well, the real problem here is your level of certainty. If you're the 30 big blind holding JJ, and the SB raises all-in for 1500, you have to be (almost) totally sure he doesn't have QQ, KK, or AA before you can call. Likewise, he shouldn't have AK, AQ, or KQ very often either, as you're not really ahead of those hands.


How sure can you be?


Well, if you're 100% sure he has only a 32% chance of winning and you fold, I think you almost certainly made a mistake.


On the other hand, if you have some reasonable level of doubt, and he then shows you the A9s after you fold, don't feel even slightly bad.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

People seem to over-estimate the value of survival. When you are less than 1/2 way to the money (say 30+ players left with 10 places paid), the short stacks are generally worth less than ~10% more per chip than larger stacks. Thus, in this situation doubling up is probably worth at least x1.8, so you should call if you think there is at least 55% chance you will win.


Suppose you think there is 5% chance he has AA, KK, or QQ (you'll lose this ~ 80% of the time); 50% chance he has a hand you dominate A9s for example (lets say you win 2/3 of these); and 45% chance he has a hand you split with, like KQ. Then you would have a win percentage of ~45%/2+2/3*50%+1/5*5%=57%, so it would be a profitable call. Also, I think the estimates here are on the conservative side.


Only when the payoff structure is very flat do per chip values get extreme (up to ~1.5x). perhaps in a supersatellite near the payouts this play would become unprofitable.


Craig

"Well, the real problem here is your level of certainty. "


"Indubitably" Risking a relatively large amount, or all, of ones chips to win a small pot is not usually a good idea early in a tournament. Hi Greg.


Vince

You guys are missing my point. My only question was about the A9 vs JJ call if we knew the cards. Is it better to double up on a 66% shot, risking getting knocked out early? I understand he could have anything AA, Ak. He could also have 1010, 99, making JJ a huge favorite also. That is also not the point. My read based on his previous play was A little x and I was right. So I made a move based on my read.


Fred

Fred,


As I mentioned in my response, as long as you are greater than 55% favorite to double up, you should do it.


Craig

It depends on how good you are compared to the field. It is hard to imagine being so much better than the field that you can pass up a 60% or greater chance of doubling up. If you are in the middle, anything above 50%. And if you are a dog to the field, this is very important, you should always take a 50% chance to double up and potentially even less.


I strongly believe that, from reading the posts on this forum over the last couple of months, many less experienced players place much too much of a premium on survival when they are still far from the money.


Andy.

You were right about your read this time. Nobody is always right. So, there is always going to be some uncertainty, and quantifying that uncertainty is a difficult guessing game.


However, as I said, if you're somehow 100% certain (or we're assuming you are) that you're a 2:1 favorite, folding is a big mistake. You can't fold when you're this big of a favorite, with this big of an edge, and still be getting the best of it in the long run.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Andy,


If you are a favorite, you ought to also be favorite to do more with the chips after you double up, so it probably not a significantly different calculation.


That is, unless you are odds on to finish in the money, it will be only about a 5% change maximum.


Craig

Thanks for the insight guys. Very helpful.


Fred