Strategic Implications of Double Add-on Tournaments

[flatline]

UB has been running a lot of 5k - 60k guaranteed tournaments lately. They are all double add-on tournaments, in that you can add-on at the end of the first hour for your original buy-in, but the add-on gets you twice as many chips. You can also rebuy as per a normal rebuy tournament. For instance, if it is a $10 tournament, and you end the first hour even (let's say 1000 chips), you can add-on another 2000 chips for another $10, but any rebuys along the way only get you 1000 chips for $10. So basically you would be stupid not to add-on and you would want to avoid rebuys. I am posting this because a lot of people in these games just throw chips around like it is a regular rebuy tournament, when this structure dictates that this exactly what you should not do.

What is somewhat counterintuitive about these tournaments is that, for the first hour, you should avoid close gambles for all your chips (even with a slight edge), even though you can rebuy.

Some quick math can demonstrate this point. Let's say you are in a $10 tournament with a $1 rake and you have two choices:
1)You can break even at 1000 chips and then add-on another 2000 chips at the end of the first hour for a total of 3000 chips.
2)You can take one shot at doubling up as a 60/40 favorite. If you win, you have 2000 chips and you add-on for 2000 more for a total of 4000 chips. If you lose, you rebuy(1000) and add-on for 2000 more for a total of 3000 chips.

What is the better choice? From an EV perspective, the best choice is #1. Here's why:

1) 60% chance of having 4000 chips for $21= .00315
40% chance of having 3000 chips for $31= .00413
Average cost per chip is $.00728

2) 100% chance of having 3000 chips for $21= .007
Average cost per chip is $.007

I don't know if any of you play UB much, but I thought it was an interesting consideration that I haven't heard discussed around here before. Its obviously not intuitive to a lot of people because this "60/40 rule" isn't really followed by anybody during these tournaments. The best way to play them, from my perspective, is to play it super safe during the first hour, try not to gamble unless you have a big edge, and then add-on and start playing for real.

[Cornell Fiji]

Although my strategy in rebuy tournaments is to try to get to the end of the rebuy period cheeply I feel like you are underestimating the value of taking risks in the first hour of this tournament.

If you play risky poker there is a chance that you can have a stack of 8-16k at the end or the rebuy period and at the very worst you are going to have a minimum of 3k chips (you lose your last hand rebuy and add on) after the rebuy period.

If you try to get in cheeply like you do you will end up with a stack of around 4k after the rebuy period giving you a worse chance of winning it all.

Once the rebuy period ends you will almost always be the short stack at your table and will be liable to being bullied around, for aggressive players it is a +EV play to make some plays early on when they can not be knocked out so that they have a big stack when play tightens after the first hour.

Also I have met people who like to be super aggresive early on just to get chips at their table, of course this is a losing strategy because it costs them so much money but it can allow them to become the chip leader after the first hour which is what these players are going for.

[flatline]

I agree when you are talking about regular rebuy tournaments. I'm talking about the effect of the double add-on. Yes, playing agressively and getting a big stack will put you in a better position to win. However, I'm saying that with the double add-on, the incentive to do this is reduced.

[Pat Southern]

[ QUOTE ]
UB has been running a lot of 5k - 60k guaranteed tournaments lately. They are all double add-on tournaments, in that you can add-on at the end of the first hour for your original buy-in, but the add-on gets you twice as many chips. You can also rebuy as per a normal rebuy tournament. For instance, if it is a $10 tournament, and you end the first hour even (let's say 1000 chips), you can add-on another 2000 chips for another $10, but any rebuys along the way only get you 1000 chips for $10. So basically you would be stupid not to add-on and you would want to avoid rebuys. I am posting this because a lot of people in these games just throw chips around like it is a regular rebuy tournament, when this structure dictates that this exactly what you should not do.

What is somewhat counterintuitive about these tournaments is that, for the first hour, you should avoid close gambles for all your chips (even with a slight edge), even though you can rebuy.

Some quick math can demonstrate this point. Let's say you are in a $10 tournament with a $1 rake and you have two choices:
1)You can break even at 1000 chips and then add-on another 2000 chips at the end of the first hour for a total of 3000 chips.
2)You can take one shot at doubling up as a 60/40 favorite. If you win, you have 2000 chips and you add-on for 2000 more for a total of 4000 chips. If you lose, you rebuy(1000) and add-on for 2000 more for a total of 3000 chips.

What is the better choice? From an EV perspective, the best choice is #1. Here's why:

1) 60% chance of having 4000 chips for $21= .00315
40% chance of having 3000 chips for $31= .00413
Average cost per chip is $.00728

2) 100% chance of having 3000 chips for $21= .007
Average cost per chip is $.007

I don't know if any of you play UB much, but I thought it was an interesting consideration that I haven't heard discussed around here before. Its obviously not intuitive to a lot of people because this "60/40 rule" isn't really followed by anybody during these tournaments. The best way to play them, from my perspective, is to play it super safe during the first hour, try not to gamble unless you have a big edge, and then add-on and start playing for real.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your math is wrong. You're not weighting the buyin ammounts 60/40. You have T3600 EV with a 60/40 double up, assuming you add on no matter what (4000*.6+3000*.4). You have a average of $25 investment (not $26) because ($21*.6+31*.4). Therefore your $/chip is actually .006944. And taking a 60/40 is still +$EV.