Value bet with middle pair?

[billyjex]

No reads on CO. BB is weak-tight.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, MP1 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls.

River: (8.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 8.25 BB

Is this a value bet? Or take the free showdown?

[Vaftrudner]

[ QUOTE ]

Is this a value bet? Or take the free showdown?

[/ QUOTE ]
value. /v

[DeezNutz3]

Yes, easy value bet in my opinion. You're hand improved and you want to check this, why?

[billyjex]

Because I'm a pansy.

But I'm working on it.

[justin]

no ones pointed out the fact that ur preflop play is terrible. jko is a garbage hand not worth a raise with 2 callers in front of you with the button or without the button. however definitely a value bet on the river. Its ez to fold to a raise

[Vaftrudner]

[ QUOTE ]
jko is &lt;snip&gt;not worth a raise with 2 callers in front of you with the button

[/ QUOTE ]

yes it is. /v

[Kluddeludde]

[ QUOTE ]
yes it is. /v

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree and I don't think it's close.

Kludde

[sthief09]

it's definitely close. it's player dependent. if they're loose, raise. if they're tight, limp. in the CO I'd always raise. with ATo, I'd always raise

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
no ones pointed out the fact that ur preflop play is terrible. jko is a garbage hand not worth a raise with 2 callers in front of you with the button or without the button

[/ QUOTE ]

Against two limpers I raise everytime, unless I know one of the limpers is a rock.

[sfer]

Ask yourself if the second Q makes your hand more or less likely to be good.

[River2Pair]

[ QUOTE ]
Ask yourself if the second Q makes your hand more or less likely to be good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Especially when he checks to you on the river

[Avatar]

Ok it's understood this is a clear value bet on the river.

If check/raised, is it worth the call?

[River2Pair]

IMO fold to a C/R. We have no reads on CO, but he did bet out on the flop and call a raise. If he is especially weak, he could be fearing the flopped straight. Could be on a club draw or some sort of straight draw himself. But for him to check-raise here, I would really think he's got a jack beat.

[Bullajami]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, easy value bet in my opinion. You're hand improved and you want to check this, why?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am somewhat of a newbie, and I don't understand this sentence. How does the Q improve Hero's hand, if it does the same for his opponent? It could actually be REALLY helping his opponent by giving him trips.

Then, the statement that "you want to check this" seems to contradict the initial statement that a value bet is in order.

Edu-ma-cate me please.

Thanks,

[sfer]

You get checkraised so rarely it's really not worth worrying about.

[BottlesOf]

There are only 4 q's in the deck. If 2 are on the board instead of 1, it's even less likely that one is inhis hand. Further, he checked the second Q indicating he doesn't like it/is scared of your trips.

Now, he could be planning a checkraise, but if he has a Q, he's probably going to realize that there's only one other Q and you probably don't have it AND if you do, you don't have him kicked, therefore, he'll bet, so you don't check it through. So, a c/r isn't too too likely, bet here.

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
There are only 4 q's in the deck. If 2 are on the board instead of 1, it's even less likely that one is inhis hand. Further, he checked the second Q indicating he doesn't like it/is scared of your trips.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is clearly correct. However, as you know, in determining whether it is correct to value bet on the river when acting last we need to evaluate not how likely our hand is to be good but how likely it is to be good when we get called. On the typical Party table though, where players will call with terrible hands or no hands at all, value betting whenever you figure to have the best hand is either correct or very close to being correct. When in doubt, and often there is no doubt, you should still tend to value debt and not worry about "will a worse hand call me" because, in general, they will call you.

Now my question to you and others with regard to this hand is the following. We were not given a read on the opponent in this hand. But suppose all we knew is that he is in most respects a typical, pretty bad Party player, but that while he will call with any kind of made hand, including middle or bottom pair, he will not call with a busted straight or flush draw, which many Party players will do. With that read, do you think the value bet is as clear?

Edit: Of course, you may have assumed that you won't get a call from a busted draw in your original analysis. I am just curious about that though. Thanks.

[Grendel]

EDIT: Oops, I incorrectly read which player was weak-tight. So ignore most of this. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

I agree about folding to a c/r for all the stated reasons.

However, what beatable hands will a weak-tight player call with on this river? An 8? A worse jack? If your read is correct, the best-case scenario is that your opponent has A8, JT, or 98, or maybe TT/99, and doesn't fear that you've made trip queens. Just about everything else either has you beat, or your opponent will likely fold.

I might be wrong, but I don't think this is a value bet. I don't think you'll get called often enough with a worse hand to make a bet profitable.

-Grendel

[kendal14]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
no ones pointed out the fact that ur preflop play is terrible. jko is a garbage hand not worth a raise with 2 callers in front of you with the button or without the button

[/ QUOTE ]

I would raise this as well on the button with two limpers unless both of the limpers are tight passive preflop. Does anyone else think this is completely wrong to raise KJo?

[Bullajami]

OK, what if he bet out on the river, instead of checking? How would you play that?

[BottlesOf]

I'd call and expect to lose. (Note that doesn't make calling incorrect)

[billyjex]

After reading the responses, it's clear this is an easy value bet. I think value betting is something I'm still working on but this was an easy one (he had J9 for a weaker jack.)

I think if C/R on the river, I can safely fold. The pot is not that big. Too be honest, I checked scared of just that fact of a C/R or wasting a bet getting called by a weak Q. But the fact the second Q came made the value bet an even easier option.

And I think KJo is an easy raise here. I raise ALOT on the button. The BB had stats of something like 17/2 (he was the only player I had stats on at the table,) and I at least wanted to drive him out with a weak ace, weak K, or weak suited cards.

[twankerr]

[ QUOTE ]
I at least wanted to drive him out with a weak ace, weak K, or weak suited cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Care to elaborate why you would want him out with a weak K considering you have such a hand dominated? Raising with KJo is not a good play here because now you are in a multiway pot with two high offsuit cards. They definately will not play well in a multiway pot with odds to draw to anything.

[billyjex]

So he doesn't make some lame two pair. I don't know, I don't want him in the pot.

Would I rather have KJo five-way, or three-way?

[twankerr]

[ QUOTE ]
So he doesn't make some lame two pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

By that logic, you would raise every button.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising with KJo is not a good play here because now you are in a multiway pot with two high offsuit cards. They definately will not play well in a multiway pot with odds to draw to anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a technical foul on twankerr for weak-tight advice.

[twankerr]

[ QUOTE ]
That's a technical foul on twankerr for weak-tight advice.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is that weak-tight? KJo does not play well multiway in large pots.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
KJo does not play well multiway in large pots.

[/ QUOTE ]

By raising, especially with a weak-tight BB, you have an excellent shot at getting this three-way with position and initiative. It will then be up to your opponents to find a reason to play on with their hands after the flop.

[twankerr]

Sounds about what SSH says for KJo. I agree with the analysis, but I find the play to be marginal at best.

[sfer]

Yes. For me, an unknown is assumed to be a typical Party player.

EDIT: It's also important to note that even bad players are more likely to call with weaker hands when the top card pairs because you are less likely to have trips.

[mtdoak]

What is he going to call you with here? You are representing at least top pair. The only hand you are scared of here is AJ. If he has the Queen he is calling. My guess is that he has two clubs or a Queen-Nine. If he has the flush draw, he's folding. If he has the Queen he's calling. Easy Easy free showdown.

[Bullajami]

/images/graemlins/ooo.gif Thanks. At what point does playing poker well collide with common sense? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[PoBoy321]

The common sense is that if you're getting 10:1 on your money (I'm using round numbers just to make things easier), you only need to catch your opponent in a bluff 10% of the time to make it a profitable call. So basically, if you're calling $1 with the possibility of winning $10, you can lose that dollar 9 times, because the 10th time, you'll win back those 9 dollars, plus an extra dollar.

[Bullajami]

Thanks Po. I was just being facetious about the previous post.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
What is he going to call you with here? You are representing at least top pair. The only hand you are scared of here is AJ. If he has the Queen he is calling. My guess is that he has two clubs or a Queen-Nine. If he has the flush draw, he's folding. If he has the Queen he's calling. Easy Easy free showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

Easy free showdown in this hand = easy missed bet

[PantherZ]

[ QUOTE ]
Ask yourself if the second Q makes your hand more or less likely to be good.

[/ QUOTE ]

You should also ask yourself "If I bet,what percentage of the time will he call with a worse hand?"

[BottlesOf]

Right, so if you're getting 10:1, you can be good LESS than 10% of the time, as you only need to be good 1/11 of the time to break even.

Not being a nit, just making sure that's understood by all /images/graemlins/smile.gif