PStars $350k guaranteed: Semi-bluff with unexpected result?

[McMelchior]

Here is a situation from todays PokerStars $200 + $15 where I'm far from sure I did the right thing; the situation represents a frequent problem for me, when I flop a draw against aggressive opponents - a good draw, but not good enoght to risk my whole stack on it.

I've moved to the table one hand earlier, and seen the current button make an aggressive PF and flop play from the SB into a T high coordinated flop. The very next hand shown below I flop an open ended str8 draw; I consider betting out, but my notes on UTG+1 says "very aggressive", and I expect him to be perfectly capable of raising me with Ace high. So I decide to check and see what happens with the option of either folding or taking more decisive control of the hand.

I feel very certain that UTG+1's 1/2 pot bet means the flop missed him (and that he's just following up on his PF raise), and the buttons flat call looks very weak:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB (t5870)
Hero (t3365)
UTG (t3105)
UTG+1 (t2130)
MP1 (t1985)
MP2 (t2185)
MP3 (t3105)
CO (t1650)
Button (t2470)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to t90</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Button calls t90, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t60.

Flop: (t285) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets t150</font>, Button calls t150, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t900</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t2380</font>, ?

The button could have flopped a set or two pair (in which care I'm drawing to 8 outs), or he could be pushing a flush draw (most likely 6 outs for me, 11 outs if he doesn't hold the 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif), an inside str8 draw with QJ or even JT is possible, but not likely (9 - 13 outs) - or he could be on a raw bluff. I think it's a clear fold. Was it a mistake not to bet out immediately? Should I just have called and seen the turn for t150?

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

[schwza]

i would fold pre-flop.

then i would check-call the flop. as another poster once wrote, "you're getting the right price to draw - why negotiate?" if you hit your 6-outer, your hand will be pretty well disguised and you're likely to win a big pot.

after you c/r and get call-reraised, the raise is 1480 to you. there's 285 + 150 + 900 + 900 = 2235 in the pot. i haven't done the math, but i'm pretty sure that you have the odds to call against TPTK or 2 pair, but not against a set.

i think you're probably up against a set - i'd fold.

[kevstreet]

I'm sorry, I know I'm going to kick myself for not knowing this but what does t and T indicate. I'm new to the boards, I've determined what the other abbreviations stand for but I'm still unsure about this. Thanks for any help.

[Tyler Durden]

lowercase t means tournament chips.

capital T means a Ten.

[MLG]

This sort of checkraise semi-bluff works much better when you are all-in assuring you see the next two cards. Unless you win the pot right now you will be in a difficult spot on the turn. If you want to try and win the pot without making your hand, call the flop bet and bet out on the turn. If you play it this way you are employing the same number of chips, and are also more likely to see the river. Save the big check-raise for when its heads-up, or you can move all-in.

[adanthar]

Why on Earth are you in this hand in the first place and why on Earth did you then decide to checkraise when they're pricing you in to see a turn?

[kevstreet]

Thanks Tyler, for the life of me I couldn't figure out what the "t" meant. Makes sense now!

[dmk]

IMO, there's nothing wrong w/ seeing a flop here. I'm not sure why everyone is saying fold preflop when its another T60 of your T3365 stack. Not saying there's a problem w/ folding, but calling is hardly wrong.

On the flop, you have a mediocre draw w/ 6 probable outs. When the action gets to you its 585:150, approx 4:1. If you think you can get a decent amount of chips when you hit a 5 or T (enough implied odds), a call is fine. Plus, you're closing the action. If you don't think you'll get paid off if you hit, you need to fold.

You obviously already see your mistake, but I think raising is the worst option here, even all-in. Basically I hate re-opening the betting so a "very aggressive" player can move in.

When you get re-raised on the flop, its an easy fold. He most likely has A/images/graemlins/spade.gif9/images/graemlins/spade.gif unless he's bad enough to slowplay a set here.

Summary: preflop is fine. just call the flop.

[McMelchior]

Thanks for the replies /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I can't really agree with folding pre-flop - seeing a flop with mid connectors against at least one know aggro player for less than 2% of my stack just has to be a sound investment; if I hit there's every chance he'll pay me off, and without these cheap gambles early on I will end up relying way to heavily on catching prime starting hands in a tournament where a lot of people play very aggressively preflop.

I'm still not sure if I did have the odds to call the flop re-raise - the pot is offering me t3,715 for t1,480 (1:2.5) and no implied odds. The player in question made some VERY sketchy plays later on, and could easily have been on a raw flush draw. The problem for me again being that I shouldn't have brought myself in a situation where I have to stake 70% of my stack on a longish draw that early on. As suggested check/calling the flop would probably have been the best strategy.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)