Tough Decision?

Tough Decision?


I played a No-Limit hold'em tournament last night and this hand came up. We are down to the last two tables and I am one of the shorter stacks with $3300. The tournament only guarantees money for first and second place. Sometimes they make a deal with the last three or four players depending on chip counts. The tournament gives each player $5000 in chips at the beginning of the tournament. There were 35 players to start, and now only 19 left. Average chip stack is approximately $9200.


Blinds are $400 and $200. I'm under the gun with AhQd and make it $1200 to go leaving me with $2100. At this point in the tournament I had to decide ahead of time what I was going to do, since opening for $1200 was more than a third of my stack. If I get called, I will most likely be the first to bet so I will bet the rest of my chips on the flop no matter what comes down. The reason why is that I will most likely be called by only one player. So far, almost all the hands have been played heads up. If I get called it will most likely be an underpair to my overcards, because a big pair would probably reraise preflop. I think this move gives me a better opportunity than going all-in preflop, because it will give my opponent the opportunity to fold to a scary flop or a flop that does not connect. Plus, I will make more money by getting a caller preflop, instead of just picking up the blinds. The majority of time they will not connect, and will fold. Usually, players are bolder preflop, and one of the big stacks would probably call an all in raise preflop, but would fold on the flop if it didn't help them.


Middle position player with approximately $12000 in chips, reraises to put me all in. I observed this player calling raises with K5 offsuit, so I figured that his reraising requirements could be looser than most of the other players at the table. Normally, if I had a lot of chips I would fold, but I already had more than a third of my stack in the pot. If I folded, I would have had $2100 left. With only this amount of chips I would have lost all my betting power, especially after the blinds pass on the next two hands I'd only have $1500 left. Furthermore, with only $1500 left, I'd get called from anyone with a pair, overcards, or ace-rag. So, it was either win $6000 now or have to go all in twice to win the same amount.


If you consider pot odds my decision is incorrect to call. The pot is only offering me 1.86-to-1 odds to call which means that my hand has to win 35% of the time to make the call correct. But, if I fold what is the probability that I could have a chance to make it to the last two places?


I had run the hand combinations on Caro's Poker Probe based on two possible probabilities of what my opponents could reraise me with. If my opponent only reraises with AA or KK I will only win 21.5% of the time (I arrived at this answer by averaging the 3 pocket AA combinations and the 6 KK combinations). Since, it was also possible that he could be reraising me with AA, KK, QQ, JJ, or AK, I would only win 28.4% of the time.


The probability of winning two all ins would be approximately 25% (assuming that each all in had a 50% chance of winning). Surviving the first all in with only $1500 would be the hardest to overcome (because I do not have enough chips to be a threat), and once I have $3000 there would be less hands that would call me. So, I decided to call. I figured it would be easier to win this hand, than to try and win the next two hands to have the same amount of chips.


So, the problem I'm presenting here is which is the better decision. To fold since the pot odds were not correct to call, or to call since the probability of going broke was more likely by having to face at least two or more all in decisions?

Mark,


In some ways this reminds me of the post below (by Rakay if you want to look it up) asking about how much it "cost" if you lose 50 chips early on, because it might cost you more if you double up a few times later on.


Similarly you are talking about how much your stack of 2100 will be worth if you fold and then the blinds go through you and you have x % chance to double up and so on and so on. I think you're getting a bit lost in all the "what-ifs".


Basically if you fold and lose you have 2100. If you call and win you have 7200 if my sums are right (3300 x 2 + 600). If you call and lose of course you have 0. First of all I make your chip pot odds 5100:2100 which is a lot more than your 1.86-1, can you check this and see if you agree ?


To work out your "real" odds we have to estimate what 2100 and 7200 chips will actually be worth at the end of the hand. 7200 is close enough to the average stack of 9K that we can say it's worth 7200. 2100 being a smaller stack is worth proportionally more per chips but IMO with 19 players left and only 2 places paid the difference will be quite small, 200 at most. So your "EV" pot odds are 4900:2300. You might disagree with the estimate of what 2100 chips are worth, that's fine, just use your own number instead.


What I'm saying is that it's not only easier to put our finger in the air and make an estimate of what our stack is worth if we fold, it's probably at least as accurate. When we start along the lines of "but what if the blinds go through and I don't pick up another hand and etc. etc." we are liable to introduce more errors by focussing more on one scenario than another.


A couple more small points :


It doesn't necessarily follow that a loose caller will also be a loose reraiser. I know a lot of player who call raises with junk but won't reraise without the goods.


It's not valid to say that "after the blinds I'll have 1500" and work from there - who knows what will happen in the blinds ? Free flops, bluffing opportunities, all sorts. All we can really say is after this hand we'll have 2100 with the blinds coming up. This is what I mean about focussing too much on one scenario.


The accuracy of our estimate of how much 2100 is really worth is probably less significant than the accuracy of your read of his reraising range. And both factors are a lot smaller than our inconsistency in what the size of the pot is.


Enough for now, let me know what you think.


Andy.

Hi Mark,


IMHO I would go all-in preflop, even under the gun, players after you will think that you have a strong hand to go all-in UTG. In your situation I think you should go all-in, as you have commited such a large % of your stack then you cannot possibly on a reraise.

What happened in the end?

Please add 'fold' after 'possibly'

Unless the raiser almost certainly has me beat, I'm not going to lay it down here after putting in this much of my stack.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Andy,


You're right I miscalculated the size of the pot. I was getting 5100/2100 or 2.42-to-1 odds. It now makes the decision much closer for pot odds to be a factor, but that is not really the question I'm presenting.


But, say if this player would only reraise with AA or KK. Is it better to take one risk now and lose or take several latter with only $2100? The question I'm really presenting is a probability question. Take the risk now, even if he showed you his cards and they were KK, or try to rebuild a $2100 stack when the average stack is $9200. I think this question is much different than loosing $50 of your stack early in a tournament when that amount of chips is insignificant to your stack size.


Andy, you said,"It doesn't necessarily follow that a loose caller will also be a loose reraiser. I know a lot of player who call raises with junk but won't reraise without the goods." I basically made that statement to give you some doubts about my opponent, and that is why I came up with two possible outcomes. Some players will reraise with AA, KK, QQ, JJ, and AK in this situation, and then there are quite a few that reraise with only AA or KK. I mentioned these possibilities for you to do a probability estimate. To answer my question, so I do not disagree with you on your statement, but I hope I'm making it clearer.


My "what-if" statements were made so you can estimate a probability outcome.


Once I decided to play that hand I knew all my chips would go into the pot if I got reraised or called. But, I thought the decision could be close.


So again, take one risk now or several latter?


Good Luck


Mark

Yannis,


The reason why I would not go all-in under the gun is because I am more likely to get called by a weaker hand for the standard raise. There were plenty of players playing weak aces, which I would love to have them call. Quite often someone will call and the flop comes A-rag-rag. They would lose all their chips with a hand like AJ. Plus, since I did have a very good hand why just try to win the blinds? I knew with the raise that I made that I'd either win the blinds uncontested, get a weaker hand to call (which hopefully would be a weaker ace so I could double up), or get reraised. This time I got reraised.


Anyway, after I called we turned our hands up. My opponent had KK. The flop was three rags, and then an ace came on the turn. Boy, was I happy, until the river was a king. Anyway, I'd do the same thing again.


Good Luck


Mark

Greg,


I was not laying it down either. As a matter of fact, I felt pretty sure that a pair of kings was what he had, and that turned out to be true.


The reason why I posted this question is based on what Sklansky had written in his TPFAP book. In his chapter called "Adjusting Strategy Because the Stakes Rise" I disagree with his first paragraph, but I do agree that his statement is correct with the example he gives.


The problem with No-Limit tournaments is that once your stack is small, you have lost all your tools that you use to win.


Lastly, Sklansky does not address the problem I'm presenting here.


Good Luck


Mark

Mark,


The question is a lot different from the $50 first-round question but my point was that you are both trying to approach the question in the same way, using "what-if" scenarios, which is simply not how I want to do it.


Basically this is close if you can see the KK (or if your opponent will only reraise with AA, KK, QQ, AK it's about the same). Close enough that I would not worry about fine-tuning the probabilities but instead look for situational tie-breakers. The main one would be how do I rate compared to the field ? In a soft field I would be more likely to fold. In a tough competition I would be more likely to call. Is there a lucrative cash game I can get into if I lose ? And so on.


Andy.

In one post you asked what I would do if I *Knew* he had KK. Or if would ONLY do this with AA or KK? If he would only do this with AA or KK it is an easy fold. If you see KK, it is close, but I probably still fold. You would be surprised what could happen on the next hand.


If he could have a range of hands, AK,AA,KK down to 99 etc, obvioulsy I call--so these factors do change your question.


I think you raised a bad amount. I understand your reason for it, but it still was not a good amount. You raised nearly the exact amount that would require you make a decision if reraised.


If you had made it 1500-1800 the call is easy. You could then, if called, still move in on the flop. If you moved in you also would have avoided this problem.


You really dont want to get called when you have AQ. you could get called by 99. Then the flop comes 2-4-6. Well then you are probably broke.


Basically you raised an amount that let someone else put you in a spot to make a tough decision. Always try to avoid that. Make it 1600 and the rest of the hand becomes pretty easy to play. If he has 99 and the flop comes K-J-4 he probably still folds when you move in on the flop.

Even if he raised smaller, I don't see how anybody could just call the raise from such a small stack, especially with a hand like 99. Surely an opponent would either fold or re-raise to put him all-in?


As to trying to win more than the blinds, and having a strong hand. I wouldn't say that AQo from UTG is my idea of strong. When I'm on this short a stack, winning 600 in blind money uncontested seems to be a pretty good deal to me.


Why put yourself in this situation in the first place. With this size stack I would either raise all-in or fold. I think the stack is too short to start getting cute about trapping weaker aces by raising less. Win the blinds or double through if called. Why complicate things that should be simple?

Russell,


I've read through all the posts again and I'm back agonizing how to play this situation. I wanted to make it clear that I had thought about this situation a few hands prior to playing the hand. Furthermore, I had decided that if I was going to play a hand I was going to put the rest of my chips in the pot whether I got called or reraised.


You indicated that I should have bet between $1500 and $1800, but I believe that makes my decision just to move in come to the same conclusion. The reason why I say this, is I believe I would probably not have been called, but would only be reraised. But, there is a chance I would be called and then it would be much easier for someone to call my all in bet on the flop.


I'm going to do some mathematics for figuring out what is the best decision, and I will post my results later.


Thanks for your response.


Good Luck


Mark

I am sorry, I was not clear.


I think the BEST thing you can do is move all in. JGM is correct this is not a time to start trying to trap people. The blinds are big enough that simply securing them should be your first goal.


If, for some reason, you decide NOT to move in. NEVER bet an amount which if raised will make your decision HARD. Either raise a small amount where youknow you will muck to a reraise, or raise a large amount where there is no question you will call.


The fact that you are questioning whether you should have called means that the initial raise was the wrong amount. Calling the reraise should never be a close decision. It should be clear cut, one way or the other.


The purpose of the bigger raise was not to differentiate whether or not you would be called, it was to make your second decision easier. Furthemore, you would still have had enough chips to jam the flop.


Of course, I still think all in before the flop is the best play. You will still lose this hand, but that is not really the point.