Too early for this play?

$120+$100 NLHE tournament at Lucky Chances last week.


Round 7 of tourney, 73 of 159 players remaining.


Blinds are 150-300, I have TC2300, which is now a below-average stack. Played very tight-agressive to this point, only hand shown down at the river was an AKs beating an AT. Have stolen 5-7 pots with bets of 4x the big blind from mid-late position. Gone fairly card-dead in last 2 rounds - nothing even close to being able to play...


Limits about to go up again - I am dealt Q9s on the button. Folded around to me. Small blind has TC4800, and has folded to any raise I've made to this point. although has been playing fairly loosely against other players. BB almost certain to fold unless he has QQ or higher.


I decide Q9s is good enough at this point and raise 1000.


Small blind thinks for about a minute and then re-raises me all-in.


After thinking a minute, I decide being left with 1300 isn't going to help much at the 200-400 level, and call what I expect is a small pair or AX.


Thoughts on 1) my initial raise and 2) my subsequent all-in call would be appreciated.


Thanks...

DrJ

Dr.J,


I like your preflop steal attempt but cannot commend you for calling the all-in (for you) reraise. I quote you "Folded around to me. Small blind has TC4800, and has folded to any raise I've made to this point." This information must be used when determining what to do after his raise. It appears you neglected to do this. Although I expect you to later post that you won the confrontation I believe it was a mistake in either case.


So yes it was too early to commit all your chips this early, you still had two more rounds of blinds, enough time to find a better hand to commit to a final stand.


Jimbo

If you've always open raised to 4x the BB up to this point, why suddenly bet less? Also, by raising 43% of your stack, you're sending the SB the (wrong) message that you might be convinced to muck the hand for a raise while I agree with your reasoning that you cannot muck Q9s for almost 3:1 as it's still unlikely to be dominated unless the SB is very tight.


Given that any reasonable raise would make you pot-stuck anyway, I think you have a fold or all-in situation. I would probably muck here (I've busted form too many tourneys with Q9 already).


cu


Ignatius

The good news was that my read on the SB was correct - he called with A5o. Bad news was that the board came 86322 and I busted out...


Next time...

I agree with the advice to fold vs. all-in decision on the initial raise - as i was leaving the table, this was what i was telling myself. Especially considering it was probably 75-80% likely they would both fold, I think I should have raised all-in. Even in the 20-25% they call, I'd likely be close to 50-50 or 40-60 in the race-off...


Thanks...

DrJ

If they're going to both fold 75-80% of the time, you should have raised with any 2 cards. Also, given your stack size, if you're going to raise at all, it should probably be all-in. If your stack was a little bigger, then you could make a 3x raise to 900, and save a couple of thousand for betting the flop.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

I think you need to move in here or muck. If they will fold as often as you say moving in is clearly correct. It is a funny thing, just because you know you are pot stuck does not mean that they know this. Give a player any opportunity to come over top and they frequently believe you will lay down whether or not such belief is correct.


This would have been a good time to move in. Still I may have mucked here and waited 1 more round to start moving in. Close call. But a smallish raise is the worst option.


Once they move on you, you have a tough decision. They moved in because they either 1) have a HUGE hand (in which case you should fold) or 2) because they believe you are weak (which you are, but here you probably have to call because the pot is laying a big price, which of ocurse you created by your raise.).


Basically you raised just enough to convince yourself you were going to have to call a reraise. If that is the case ALWAYS just move in to begin with, unless perhaps you have AA.