Nolimit Situation

Pokerstars 50+5 nolimit holdem tournament.


The payoff structure is:


1-1500

2-1000

3-600

4-500


Down to the final four, everyone is gambling a bit more, the following hand

comes up:


Table '2424 1' Seat #3 is the button

Seat 2: BOWSER (14988 in chips)

Seat 3: spirit (19835 in chips)

Seat 5: pokerpunk (27562 in chips)

Seat 7: semi-

Somehow the post got cut off...


posts big blind 3000

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to pokerpunk [Tc Ts]

BOWSER: raises 11838 to 14838 and is all-in

spirit: raises 4847 to 19685 and is all-in


What would you do? I think I made a big mistake on this hand, do more to

the payout structure. I'll post the hand results, but since I feel they

might be clouding my thought process, I'd rather discuss the hand to this

point for now.

I am sorry I really dont view this as that close. If I am reading this correctly you are suggesting that the UTG player raised 11K all in into a 4K pot, and got called. You were the chip leader (although I cant see the other players chip count), and if you dont play this hand only fall a bit behind the winner?


My hand is in the muck so fast. I would call with KK or better--QQ, AK in the muck, not even close with 1010.


I understand you only move up 100 if someone busts, but if you call here and lose (which you are likely to do), you ruin your chances to win.


You have an excellent chance to win by mucking.


I never like to call 2 all ins without a premium hand unless I have them covered by A LOT (ie you have 27K and each of them has about 4K--then I would call with TT).

Should be a clear fold, IMO. The only scenario I can come up with where moving-in might be justified is when


- BOWSER would raise with at least 1/2 his hands here. This might be the case if the blinds are about to increase, so that he would be unable to steal in the upcoming round.

- spirit knows this and would reraise with any hand that figures to beat BOWSER's hand (i.e any ace, almost any pair, most kings)

- semi-something has a huge stack so that you would need to more than double up to have a good shot for 1st while you would most likely finish 3rd when you muck, and can be counted on folding anything but aces and kings here.

- the rules are such that you would get 2nd place money if semi-something calls and wins the hand


cu


Ignatius

Don't forget, the difference between second and third place is $100, and third and second is $400. It also costs T2650 a hand to play at this point, or about 10% of my stack. It's also a point in the tourney where just about every hand is being raised to steal the blinds/antes. Ax or a small pair is a calling/raising hand.


I wound up folding, and think I made a big mistake. By calling, I'm significantly increasing my chances of either coming in 4th or 2nd. Assume that I have a basic one in three chance of winning (it turned out to be better than that). Would that change your analysis?

Also, if I fold, I've come close to locking up third, but am now also third in stacksize.

Why would you call when a fold is worth $100?

I actually did fold, and it cost me $400, and a reasonable shot at an additional $500. If I call and win, I'm in 2nd place. If I call and lose, I'm either still locked up for 3rd, or less crippled than the small stack. If I fold, I've pretty much locked up third, but am now the short stack at the table.

Your reasoning is absolutely correct (assuming that semi-something did in fact have a stack in the 50k+ range) and if you somehow knew that you are at least 1:2 to win the hand you have an obvious call. But that's exactly the problem here:


Since neither UTG not the button are so short stacked that they have to make a move before the blinds, you have to give them credit for a hand (esp. the button), unless you have a very good reason to believe otherwise.


Even in the absolutely best case (UTG would raise with 50% and button would reraise with 25% of his hands), you will be up against an overpair about 1/5 of the times. But in the remaining 80% case, you are still only somewhere between 1:2 and 1:1 to win the hand, which makes you just a slight overall-favorite.


If just one of your two opponents would require a legetimate hand, then you're an overall dog and if they are both halfway solid players, then you can be pretty sure that you're drawing to 2 outs.


cu


Ignatius

It looks like you are using the ole "hindsight is 20/20" goggles for this hand. If you called, all three hands were turned up, and you had TT vs AK and QJ.. how good would you feel about your hand before you saw the flop?? I would be scared mindless, to tell you the truth.. Even two overcards is a nearly 50/50 shot, but if one of them has a thrid overcard, you are at a little bit of an advantage, I would presume the math would say. You made a good fold.. It does not matter in the least what hands they turned over.. They could just as easily have A9 and J8 between the two of them, and that would make you about 50/50 to bust out of the tourney right there, with no increase in prize money.. OR, you could muck preflop and automatically make $100 more by watching a hand.. Are the tourneys so easy to you that you can automatically make a profit in each and every tourney you enter there? No?? So this one is a no-brainer.. Don't think about this kind of hand so much next time.. Muck it right away.. You'd crap yer pants if one of them turned over AA...


Pogue

Not only that Ignatius,


But also the fact I stipulated in my post above.. Even if both of them only have overcards to his TT, then he is still in major trouble, as he is a dog to win the hand. He is still a dog if there are only three overcards out against him, provided they are three separate overcards, and not matched in either of his opponents hands. If he loses this hand, the two big stacks (if they play properly) will both cooperate to eat him alive.


Pogue

> Even if both of them only have overcards [...] then he is still in major trouble



Not really. In that case, he is still 1:2 in the worst case that all 4 overcard ranks are out:

<PRE>

Hold'em, 3-handed, pot 3, cost 1, preflop, full deck, 1370754 boards

Ts-Tc: 33.77% 1:2 (EV +0.01) 461635 wins 3800 splits 905319 losses

Ah-Kd: 39.95% 2:3 (EV +0.20) 546292 wins 3800 splits 820662 losses

Qh-Jd: 26.28% 1:3 (EV -0.21) 359027 wins 3800 splits 1007927 losses

</PRE>

In the more plausible case of 3 overcards ranks, he's actually in good shape:

<PRE>

Hold'em, 3-handed, pot 3, cost 1, preflop, full deck, 1370754 boards

Ts-Tc: 47.38% 1:1 (EV +0.42) 648037 wins 4209 splits 718508 losses

Ah-Kd: 32.92% 1:2 (EV -0.01) 442491 wins 18902 splits 909361 losses

Ad-Qh: 19.70% 1:4 (EV -0.41) 261324 wins 18902 splits 1090528 losses

</PRE>

The point here is that b/c of the stack sizes and the payout structure an equity of 33% is in fact enough to warrant a call in this very situation.





cu



Ignatius

Yeah,


But consider this Ignatius.. Being a 1:2 dog in a pot where sitting out will definitely gain $100.. Playing is just not smart.. Folding most definitely does not mean he will not still take second or first.. Being in against two people will usually mean he is a dog to either win an additional $100, NAD that he is a dog to win the hand outright and take no less than second. Anytime you see me in a hand where I am a 1:2 dog, and risking additional profit on top of that, shoot me.


Pogue


(Then again, mebbe I'm just a nit, lol)

Isn't this a good example of a situation TPFAP tries to tell us to avoid - where you can sit back and move up in the money when you don't hold THE NUTS. That was the reasoning for my initial response of the hand being an easy fold.


I still don't think two outs is enough when you could easily be up against QQ + AKs, AA + JJ, AA + KK, AKs + 99, etc.


When you sit out, you're not exactly "short stacked" and all of your future confrontations will now most likely be heads up.

Yeah pogue - yer just a nit.


hazy


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