AK routine fold on the river?

[cnfuzzd]

First hand, no reads or notes

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, SB calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, SB calls.

River: (13.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero folds, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 17.50 BB
<font color="#009B00">Main Pot: 16.50 BB, won by SB.</font>
<font color="#009B00">Pot 2: 1 BB, returned to SB.</font>


peace

john nickle

[Evan]

I dunno dude. What are you putting him on? Trips?

He played this flop pretty aggressively to have a 2 in his hand and pretty passively on the turn to have 2 pair with a 2.

I like making river folds as much as the next guy, but I can't see it here. I think you have to call this one. The fact that you're not closing the action sucks, but I don't think UTG has much a a hand and if he manages to pull of a raise on the end I gladly applaud.

[cnfuzzd]

the size of the pot is what concerns me, i dont think im ahead here, but is it worth it to call?

peace

john nickle

[ErrantNight]

i think you gotta call... but i can't for the life of me determine what hand sb plays this way...

[Chairman Wood]

I would assume you're beat but I don't think this is routine. UTG seems pretty passive and I don't think you fear a reraise from him. There is not a definite hand I put SB on, for that reason in a big pot like this I call. I think you are probably beat but I'm just not sure. What hand do you think he has that he calls a raise in the SB for and plays like this? I know that this is 3/6, full of lots of bad players but I see a poorly played 77 here, and maybe Q2 (why call preflop) but it is just so odd... I would have to call.

[ErrantNight]

you've got 17.5 bb's in at this point... and you don't fear an overcall if you get one... if this is strictly a size of pot issue i think this is an easy call. i think you're ahead to a bizarre bluff raise or bizarre second-best-hand raise once every 17 hands or so.

[Evan]

Don't you think this could be some shi[/i]tty queen that decided he probably drew to a split and just couldn't keep it in his pants? Okay, its unlikely...but once in however many times? C'mon, I think you really have to call here...fur coats and all.

[spamuell]

He probably has you beat, hopefully with 72o, but I'm not folding due to the massive pot size and possible freakiness of unknown players.

[ErrantNight]

yeah, that too

[me454555]

How bout a flopped set of 2s? thats a hand I could see him playing like that from the flop and c/ring the river.

This is still a mandatory call though.

[Evan]

check calling the turn w/ 22 would suck so much its not even funny.

[cnfuzzd]

not from a "tricky" players persepective.


peace

john nickle

[bisonbison]

john, party overall has gotten very bluffy. I made an emotional catastrophe type laydown yesterday. I do not like this fold.

[ErrantNight]

in which case he could have 77, too.

i said i couldn't for the life of me figure out what he has because of the turn check. either he hit the flop hard and missed a turn raise being tricky or he's making a poor river raise. Q2s? makes the turn check slightly less bad...

[bisonbison]

not from a "tricky" players persepective.

First hand, no reads or notes

[ErrantNight]

right, i don't think you can get a read on this guy as being tricky and therefore fold based on that read... i think you gotta call... but some guy being bad/tricky might make a horrendous turn check.

the sheer weirdness of it makes for an easy river call until you know more.

[zeitgeist]

I normally treat a river check-raise (at least into 2+ players as opposed to heads up) as rarely representing a bluff, and as usually signifying a hand that can beat top pair.

Having said that, given the pot size (and what is agreed to be the general weirdness of the SB's play), I'd probably make the crying call. But I wouldn't like it much. The information gained might be worth the lost bet (although maybe I'm just rationalizing here).

Although it wasn't the subject of your post, I'm curious as to your reasoning for 3-betting the flop - with this many people in, wouldn't you rather encourage callers so as to build the pot for your flush draw? Also, if you catch one of your overcards instead, the SB may lead into you, allowing you to raise and shut out the UTG.

Interesting hand. I'm curious as to what kinds of cards the SB showed down for the balance of the session, and if they made you feel better or worse about the fold.

[Jeffage]

This is about the easiest river call in the world. You don't make money on big laydowns in limit hold 'em. 1/17 of the time you're not winning? A set would likely checkraise the turn. You need to look him up here due to the size of the pot.

Jeff

[StellarWind]

You can't do this. You have no convincing theory of what is going on. There is no way you can be 17-1 certain that you don't have the best hand.

Since everyone has a pet theory about what mangled hand SB could play this way, let me toss mine in: 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. This hand has actually played the first 3.5 streets in a completely reasonable manner. If you don't like the checkraise on the river, all I can say is it worked.

This deal is eerily similar to one of my absolute favorite hands from the early days at Paradise 0.5/1. This river was also 3-handed with a tag-along SB, an EP PFR, and me acting last. There had been earlier fighting between me and the PFR and he was firmly in control when a river deuce paired the otherwise ordinary board. SB checks, PFR bets, and I went into a major huddle. I had a middle pair but in the context of the previous play I could only beat a bluff. Finally I called because the pot was 14 BB and I wasn't sure.

Suddenly SB checkraises, representing rivered trip twos. Now it's PFR's turn to trance and I immediately realized that he had a real hand. Finally he releases his hand and a wave of skepticism hits me. The pot is now 17 BB and I call again.

SB showed a busted wheel draw and MHIG. I'm certain PFR folded the best hand and I'm almost as certain that my river huddle provoked the bluff.

[cnfuzzd]

it was horrible. I understand, and will stop. I have been a bad bad boy.

peace

john nickle

[me454555]

I wouldn't play the hand like that but I could see how someone else might. Maybe they were afraid of the higher higher set. Who knows? I really can't put him on a too much of hand but if I had to guess that woudl be it.

[spamuell]

What did he have?

Usually I don't care about results, I just want to see what he played this way though.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
What did he have?

[/ QUOTE ]
No one called the river.

[sthief09]

he probably had Q2, 72, or 22... still, I can't see folding here

[spamuell]

No one called the river.

I really have been extremely retarded recently. Lucky I'm not going to be playing for a few months.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Lucky I'm not going to be playing for a few months.

[/ QUOTE ]
??

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Lucky I'm not going to be playing for a few months.

[/ QUOTE ]
??

[/ QUOTE ]

An incredibly brief explanation why (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1384577&amp;page=0&amp;view=expan ded&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1). It's actually pretty much just a thinly-veiled crosspost, but you did ask.

Now why don't you tell us something about yourself Stellar? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[mtdoak]

I gotta agree with the masses here. You only need to be right 5% of the time for this call to be profitable. You have top pair with top kicker. The check raise is scary, but with little read on him, it might just be time to pay him off.

[cnfuzzd]

yeah, thanks for bumping *this* thread, the one i want to really disappear. Thanks. Get your ass to romania

peace

john nickle

[chesspain]

Can you bring me back a Dracula bobble-head doll?