Open letter of thanks and apology

[Guy McSucker]

Hey HUSHers,

Over recent months I have all but flooded this board with what have probably been largely straightforward, dull questions, certainly very little of interest, in my attempts to come to grips with the Party $5/10 6-max.

I'm losing in this game, for reasons I cannot fathom. It looks like a very soft game. It looks like I play considerably better than the opposition: tighter, more aggressive, better attention to odds etc. Nevertheless I keep losing.

It could be that I'm on a really bad run, or that I suck, or more likely a combination of these factors. Whatever it is, this is the only poker game I've ever had such a tough time with in five years of regular play, and it has affected my mind in a troubling way. As a result, I've found myself questioning everything I ever knew and making some amazingly poor posts as a result.

I've decided it's time for me to hang it up and go lose more slowly at $3/6.

I'd like to apologise for any irritation I may have caused, thank you for your patience and advice, and look forward to having another try after I've got my head back on straight.

Have fun at the tables.

Guy.

[TazQ]

How large of a sample are we talking here?

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]
How large of a sample are we talking here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not large enough. 25,000 hands.

And the losses aren't large either: 70BB overall.

But the confusion and muddle headedness are real.
I need to go back to a game where I have a winning record so that I know, or can be more confident, that losses and long breakeven patches are more from running bad than playing bad.

Guy.

[Alobar]

dude, DO NOT GIVE UP!!! 25K hands isnt near enough, especually only down 70BB overall. I made several attempts at the 5/10 6max game and found it so frustrating to lose in a game that I KNEW was incredibly profitable. I fell back to the full ring each time. I should have just toughed it out. Its just so streaky that you can easily be on a bad run.

How many tables are you playing? What do your stats look like? What is your win rate at 3/6 full, after how many hands?

my win rate after 30K hands at 5/10 6max had dropped to .3BB/100, 15K hands later its now 1.5BB/100....hang in there!

[sublime]

guy-

just by reading this forum and actually WANTING to improve, proves you can beat the 5/10.

that being said, if the game is messing with your head, drop down and play at a different level or play some full ring. i played about 8K hands at the party 15 and got crushed, yet i still "know" i can beat that game. it started to wear on me and when i got AA i would just wonder in my head how i was gonna lose this time. it was very unhealty and i just had to stop playing that particular game.

also, dont be in any rush to get back or feel you have to "get even" or something.

good luck

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

just by reading this forum and actually WANTING to improve, proves you can beat the 5/10.


[/ QUOTE ]

Nice of you to say so, and at a rational level I believe this, but...

[ QUOTE ]


that being said, if the game is messing with your head, drop down and play at a different level or play some full ring. i played about 8K hands at the party 15 and got crushed, yet i still "know" i can beat that game. it started to wear on me and when i got AA i would just wonder in my head how i was gonna lose this time. it was very unhealty and i just had to stop playing that particular game.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly how I feel. I am sure that taking a break is right. It might not have to be a long one; it might have to be permanent. I've got to take stock.

Thanks for posting. I do appreciate it.

Guy.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

I made several attempts at the 5/10 6max game and found it so frustrating to lose in a game that I KNEW was incredibly profitable. I fell back to the full ring each time. I should have just toughed it out. Its just so streaky that you can easily be on a bad run.


[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm... Well, I am certainly on a bad run. Equally certainly, I'm not approaching the game properly, as sublime described in his post.

[ QUOTE ]


How many tables are you playing? What do your stats look like? What is your win rate at 3/6 full, after how many hands?


[/ QUOTE ]

Mainly playing one or two tables. My stats look "right" I think, all except the one about how much I'm winning. Here are a few:

VP$IP 22.47
PFR 14%
Folded BB to steal 67% (this is falling! was much higher at first)
W$wSF 36.76%
WtSD 33%
W$SD 52%

Aggression numbers by street are 1.3, 3, 2.7, 1.7.

Does anything look out of place there?

I won 2.2BB/100 at the $3/6 over 23k hands before coming to this game. I've also won 2.3BB/100 at the Stars $3/6 6-max over a tiny sample of 5000 hands. In 2001 I played almost exclusively the Paradise $1/2 5-max and won 700BB over I have no idea how many hands.

So I feel like I have a decent background for the game and I certainly have the bankroll. What I don't have, at the moment, is the ability to win, or the mental fortitude to stick it out.

I definitely need a break.

Thanks for your words of encouragement, though. I will bear everything you say in mind!

Thanks again,

Guy.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm losing in this game, for reasons I cannot fathom. It looks like a very soft game. It looks like I play considerably better than the opposition: tighter, more aggressive, better attention to odds etc. Nevertheless I keep losing.

It could be that I'm on a really bad run, or that I suck, or more likely a combination of these factors. Whatever it is, this is the only poker game I've ever had such a tough time with in five years of regular play, and it has affected my mind in a troubling way. As a result, I've found myself questioning everything I ever knew and making some amazingly poor posts as a result.

[/ QUOTE ]

this my identical story about 10/20. just don't know what to make of it.

[Jeff W]

WtSD 33%
W$SD 52%

Your CSD(WtSD*W&SD)=.1716

Mine is .1798(5% better than yours) over my last 15k and I am pretty sure I'm running bad. You are almost certainly running bad.

Good luck.

[ctv1116]

We were all once beginners...all stupid questions are welcome.

[stripsqueez]

great dane !

i struggle to believe with the pokertracker numbers you posted that your not winning - if i'm bored and tired with a game (which often accompanies losing) i wander off to play a different one - but i dont like to leave a game i know i can beat because i am losing

i think dealing with frustration (AKA losing) is the hardest part of poker and what makes it a cool game - unless you figure that your so messed up you cant play well (if this happened to me everytime i had a 25,000 hand bad stretch i would be completely screwed) i think you should stick it out

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Gazza]

Guy
Take a break certainly but if you don't have any bankroll concerns I wouldn't give up and go back to 3-6 full just yet. The 6-max is surely more profitable and also a hell of a lot more fun!
Do you ever play sit and go's or the MTT tournaments. When I get jaded from the hectic 6-max I find these a very nice change of pace for a few days. The sit and go's in particular are a very easy way to win money and then you can come back to the 6 max feeling more confident and refreshed

Gazza

[Alobar]

It just looks like you are running bad stats wise, and you also need to be defending your blind more. If BR isnt an issue, stick it out longer.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

The 6-max is surely more profitable and also a hell of a lot more fun!


[/ QUOTE ]

That is certainly true. That's what keeps me playing there despite never really getting ahead in the game.

[ QUOTE ]

Do you ever play sit and go's or the MTT tournaments.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think playing some SNGs might be a better way to get myself straightened out, yes. They were my bread and butter for a year or so anyway. I did give it a try mid-week but managed to run really bad for 7 tourneys, winning only one pot total. Hrmph.

But yeah, I think that might be a better change of pace.

Thanks for your advice!

Guy.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

i struggle to believe with the pokertracker numbers you posted that your not winning


[/ QUOTE ]

That's good to hear. Somewhere in my rational mind I feel like I'm playing the game right. When I post hands here, I tend to get my own thoughts and plays confirmed; I had another poster look over some histories of mine and he didn't find much wrong; and by my own reckoning I'm playing better than the field. Still it's not quite working out for whatever reason. It is messing with my mind, and the fog in my head over the last few weeks over poker has been very disturbing.

[ QUOTE ]

unless you figure that your so messed up you cant play well (if this happened to me everytime i had a 25,000 hand bad stretch i would be completely screwed) i think you should stick it out


[/ QUOTE ]

Well of course you want to keep the fishy in the game since you've been rubbing shoulders with the $5/10 crowd /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Are 25k hand bad runs really that common? One of the things that's been bothering me is my own statistical analysis: there's only a 1 or 2% chance that a decent (2-3BB/100) player would have a breakeven 25k run I think. Am I really that unlucky? I think it's more likely that I'm just not that good.

Perhaps I'm just a big wuss for giving up so easily. I'm encouraged by all the posts in this thread. Thank you all again. I'm taking a break though, for sure.


I reckon I'll be back at the tables soon enough to haemmorhage properly.

Guy.

[helpmeout]

Dont use variance as an excuse, you are losing because you arent good enough.

Have a break, go play in a lower limit then come back when you are ready.

Moving down doesnt hurt and the game isnt going anywhere, the fish will still be here when you get back.

[naphand]

[ QUOTE ]
you are losing because you arent good enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps you would care to substantiate this remark? I doubt very much if you can. But while we are at it perhaps I can give you more ammunition: I lost 125BB on Stars $2/$4 yesterday having been well in control over several 1000's of hands. Perhaps I am not good enough, maybe I should drop back to $1/$2? Do you think?

The only this keeping me together is the sure knowledge that calling 3 cold PF and 2 cold on the (unpaired) flop with T7o to hit run-run Trips is not a long-term winning play. Am I wrong? Because this is what I saw for 6 hours yesterday when I was turkey in the turkey-shoot and was getting 2 and 3 outered on most every hand I had. I saw complete idiots making ridiculous hands, and I did not see a single player I could not beat playing my normal game. I could do nothing about the cards, nor the number of trips, straights and 2-pair I had overturned. I began to think I was playing bad and the Stars crew had worked me out. Over an extended period (which we all know can happen) I would probably want to take a break as well.

A bad run can mess your mind up, it makes you begin to believe you are no good, it certainly damages your game. I have played with Guy and his game is solid, I saw myself (after his AA got cracked by my 77, and other hands) that he is on a bad run and his confidence is low. Idiotic statements like this serve no purpose whatsoever. Go play some poker with Guy and reserve judgement until then.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
Dont use variance as an excuse, you are losing because you arent good enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I remember reading a post of yours on another forum where you noted that you have only played ~25,000 hands and only 10,000 at 5/10 6-max. I do not think you fully understand variance. You've played so few hands that you may never have encountered the severe swings that accompany shorthanded games.

Several excellent high stakes players who post on this site have gone through downswings of 300 BB or more:

Astroglide
1800Gambler
GuyOnTilt
Schneids

I'm sure there have been more that I haven't heard of. After there downswing, would you tell them they are incapable of beating the limit they were playing? If you would, you lack perspective.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you are losing because you arent good enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have played with Guy and his game is solid,

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to tentatively concur -- he sent me a set of 100 hand histories and I didn't see one big leak in the whole set. There were a couple places I might have played slightly differently, and that's it.

Well, with one exception -- his table selection skills suck ass /images/graemlins/ooo.gif. I do understand his problem, though. A 25k break-even run is really really *really* unlikely for a +2BB/100 player. (On the other hand, if he's picking really nasty tables for much of that 25k, that 2BB/100 is out the window.)

I think if I were Guy I'd move to the ultra-comfy Paradise 3/6 games and work there for awhile. (Sorry, chezlaw! /images/graemlins/smile.gif).

[Guy McSucker]

Thanks to naphand and Grisgra for some votes of confidence.

I'm with helpmeout on this, though: I don't think I am quite good enough. My main problem is a common one, namely tilt. This game has frustrated me to such an extent that I've played some very bad sessions, one patch in September and one in November, which have probably cost me 100BBs or more in flagrant tilt-induced errors.

Maybe I can overcome that, maybe I can't. I conquered my tiltiness in the no-limit games pretty well, but the variance there is tiny compared to this game. Still, at least I've recognized the problem. Let's hope I can fix it. Time will tell, and a break will help.

[ QUOTE ]

A 25k break-even run is really really *really* unlikely for a +2BB/100 player.


[/ QUOTE ]

I did a few statistical calculations on this, and it's about a 2.5% chance. That's one in forty, which is unlikely, but there are a lot of people on this forum who play this game, so it's almost a certainty that some of us would start out with a 25k breakeven run, even if we're all 2BB/100 players.

That's another source of frustration, of course, because if I could conclude that I was certainly terrible, I could quit with no qualms!

This thread has been extremely encouraging and I've benefitted from everyone's points of view, so once again: thanks, forum!

Guy.

[sublime]

Dont use variance as an excuse, you are losing because you arent good enough.

i think this statement suggests maybe YOU should move down and get a better understanding of poker.

[blubster]

I think you should go with your feeling. If you think you're not good enough, then I think if you weigh the odds , it's probably more likely that you're doing something wrong then that you're just that unlucky guy that this is gonna happen to 2% of the time.

No Big Deal. Just move to full games.I'm still not convinced these 6 Max games are all they're cracked up to be and I myself moved back to full games a long time ago. I consider them WAY BETTER games and more profitable too. Even the 5-10 full party games which have the crappiest selection.

blubster

[helpmeout]

I'm not saying it to be an ass, 25k hands is a lot.

People can say blah blah you are a good player or whatever but you obviously have some leaks.

Your table selection may suck, you might be playing your B game too often, whatever it is you gotta figure it out.

It is so easy to play your B game when you arent fully focused. I am starting to have this problem also.

You have weak reads, you make a few dumb plays, a few extra call downs. Only takes a couple of mistakes an hour and you go from decent winner to a loser, add in a bit of bad luck and you are on a slide.

[TazQ]

I was a 2-3 BB/100 player at the 5/10 6-8 tabling. When I moved up to 10/20 I was pretty much breakeven for the first 20k hands, hovering around .5 BB/100. I'm pretty sure I'm beating the game now for at least 2 BB/100 after getting a lot more hands in. It does happen, I've been there. Just tough it out, especially since we're only talking about 70 BB here and not a nasty run of 150-250 BB where your bankroll might be put in jeopardy.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying it to be an ass, 25k hands is a lot.

People can say blah blah you are a good player or whatever but you obviously have some leaks.

Your table selection may suck, you might be playing your B game too often, whatever it is you gotta figure it out.


[/ QUOTE ]

Hey,

No need to defend yourself.

I appreciate your input here. Really I do. I definitely play my B game too often.
I never thought you were being an ass.

That said, I also appreciate the kind words of nap and grisgra, and the encouragement to stick it out from everyone else.

To be frank, I can hardly believe the response this thread has generated. I'm overcome. You all rock, as I believe the young Americans used to say.

Guy.

[Grisgra]

By the way, Guy, I'm still waiting for that hand history review! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[turnipmonster]

hey guy,
after 11k hands my results are far from stellar (basically a little better than breakeven), but I think maybe you should take a brief break and then jump right back in. it sounds like you've been running a bit bad, and if you happen to lose a few more big pots than you win it can really affect your short term rate a lot, as you know.

also, if you want to trade blocks of hand histories to try and help each other out let me know.

--turnipmonster

[kiddo]

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[spydog]

There is no question that you are a winning player going through a tough stretch. I played 6-max exclusively for about 6 months, moving from 1/2 to 5/10. At first, I loved 6-max, but after playing nothing else for so long, it got really old. I think I burned myself out and my results started to decline. So....I decided to start playing 3/6 full (5/10 full really sucks). And just recently, I just started playing $22 and $33 NL SNG. For me, it has been refreshing to mix between 3 different styles of Hold 'Em. Maybe others, including yourself, would benefit from this approach.

While 5/10 6max is undoubtedly the most profitable game out of my personal mix, I think I'm better off mentally by playing the various games.

Also, you might try reading through the psychology forum, if you haven't already. Some of the posts in that forum might give you a better perspective on things.

And lastly, I admire your classiness, especially with the undeserved harshness from certain posters.

[Bluffoon]

I agree you should move to a different game until you get your confidence back. I encourage you NOT to give up playing the 5/10 short completely.

Once a week or so, especially after a winning session at some other game, give the 5/10 short a shot. Keep the sessions short, maybe 50 hands or less and analyze them carefully. If you quickly book a win, quit and go back to your regular game.

The idea is to play the game to learn, not to win, and to generate some success. I am betting that with this approach before long you will be back playing 5/10 short regualrly and winning to boot.

Good luck and good playing,,,,

[naphand]

Actually, I thinks it's OK for someone to say this, that a player is not good enough, though it it better when backed up by some reasoning. The 25K stat, for example, would be cause for concern, or perhaps if you had seen him play. You might have some data-mined stats on Guy, I don't know. Without any of these IMO the word maybe could be inserted.

Also, it helps to keep the discussion going and perhaps this thread can be extended to talk about the kinds of things that stop an otherwsie solid player from making $$ at $5/$10. It could be variance, but there are other things that should be considered. The ugly four-letter word TILT is important; 1 badly played hand per hour can easily cost you the 2 BB/Hr you have worked so hard for. That said, no-one plays optimally and even a 2-3 BB/Hr win rate probably incorporates quite a few mistakes, the question is are they TOP mistakes or obvious/avoidable mistakes.

My main response to bad runs of cards tends to be numb distraction, I still throw my "Stress Star" at the monitor from time to time but can (presently) avoid the urge to 3-bet an idiot who you know has a trashy hand, but which is still better than your AK... /images/graemlins/mad.gif If I decide to take on a LAG/Maniac I try to have a reasonable hand against his draw...

What are the factors in a downswing which cause us to either increase our variance or reduce our EV? Here is an off-the-cuff list, additions and discussion could prove productive, even if people think they have a highly personal/individual flaw.

(1) Tilt - overplaying hands against a fish that could suck a football through a straw.

(2) Missing value-bets due to "fear of the nuts" or even just any kind of suckout.

(3) Focussing too much on one player.

(4) Not really focussing on any players (the "numb distraction" thing).

(5) Playing too long and too tired.

(6) Limping into more hands, to play more hands against the fish at less cost.

(7) Playing way too tight.

(8) Sitting out after small wins.

Anyone?

[Rubeskies]

I'd just like to point out that some of the best players have posted 20K break-even stretches. From your confidence level I'd guess you aren't one of the best players (no offense) so a 25K break even stretch is nothing. (70BB is essentially break even over 25K hands.)

This is varience my good man.

If those guys can get 20K breakeven streaks then there is no reason why an above average/even good player couldn't have a 25K break-even stretch.

This crazy 6-max varience is precisely the reason the games are so damn good.

If you disagree you need to read Gambling Theory and Other Topics

[Joe826]

[ QUOTE ]
also, if you want to trade blocks of hand histories to try and help each other out let me know.

[/ QUOTE ]

hey, i want in on this /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
"A 25k break-even run is really really *really* unlikely for a +2BB/100 player."

I did a few statistical calculations on this, and it's about a 2.5% chance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Remember, these are your FIRST 25k hands at this level. Of course, someone who beat this game for +2/BB over 500,000 hands would rarely have such a downswing, but you just started.

I don't think you can expect to switch from 3/6-full to 5/10-6max without some period of adjustment. It sucks that you started off badly, but I wouldn't compare your variance to that of a 5/10 veteran.

As a new player, maybe your true win rate would be something like 1BB/100. If this were the case, a small loss over 25k hands wouldn't be that unusual.

As you improve, hopefully you will reach +2BB/100, but I think that is unreasonable to achieve this rate from day 1.

Rebuild your confidence at 3/6 and/or 1/2 6max, or try something totally different, and then make your return. Good luck.

[Joe826]

[ QUOTE ]
The ugly four-letter word TILT is important; 1 badly played hand per hour can easily cost you the 2 BB/Hr you have worked so hard for.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice post. I think looking at things from this perspective can really help us (or atleast me) to play better. I tend to look at my winrate from more of a detached perspective. I really only logically relate it to my sessions which are always up and down. That's just variance, though. In the end though these individual decisions are what define your winrate.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

If those guys can get 20K breakeven streaks then there is no reason why an above average/even good player couldn't have a 25K break-even stretch.


[/ QUOTE ]

That's for sure. As I've said in a couple of places, because I know stretches like this are possible for winning players, I've got go way of knowing for certain what the cause of my troubles is: bad luck or bad play.

(For those that don't know, I'm a mathematician by trade, PhD with some game theory in it, blah blah blah, so I spend a lot of time fiddling about with numbers and theories and the like.)

My time off so far has been useful. I've gone over a collection of histories and found that, on the whole, I like my play. Now, that's a bit double edged, because of course I might be routinely messing things up and thinking "yes, that's the right play", but I don't think so. Pokertracker replays with the other guy's cards face up are very reassuring. I am increasingly confident that my basic game is solid and ought to be successful at these tables, as it has been in other games. What's more I no longer feel like I am a congenital loser, as I did when I started this thread.

However, I also found some stretches where I played very very badly. These have got to go. The first one was early in my 6-max "career", as I overadjusted and started LAGging it up, and losing, all at once. The second one was pure unadulterated tilt of a very common sort: one guy at the table was winning every single pot with crappy cards and I overplayed against him, while he continued to win every single pot. There were a couple more in the recent weeks.

I think if I can conquer that part of my game I'll be okay.

For now I am going to play some no-limit sit-and-gos for a change of pace and a drop in variance. Good grief those games are steady compared to limit poker.

[ QUOTE ]

This crazy 6-max varience is precisely the reason the games are so damn good.


[/ QUOTE ]

The part of me that thinks straight knows this to be true. Thanks for reminding it!

Guy.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

By the way, Guy, I'm still waiting for that hand history review!


[/ QUOTE ]

Have had some problems with my mail server but I got the message yesterday. I'll get onto it. Thank for sending 'em.

Guy.

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
(1) Tilt - overplaying hands against a fish that could suck a football through a straw.

(2) Missing value-bets due to "fear of the nuts" or even just any kind of suckout.

(3) Focussing too much on one player.

(4) Not really focussing on any players (the "numb distraction" thing).

(5) Playing too long and too tired.

(6) Limping into more hands, to play more hands against the fish at less cost.

(7) Playing way too tight.

(8) Sitting out after small wins.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good post, but (8) I dont understand. Whats wrong with wanting to leave the table a little up? I much prefer to leave a table with 523 instead of 478.

Also I think (7) is overrated. 6max the blind isnt such a big problem. Playing weak is dangerous but a bit 2 tight doesnt change your winrate a lot because it is those marginal EV+ hands that u dont play. (the main reason to not play tight is because u want action on all your hands but on 5/10 people often doesnt notice)

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
. . . but can (presently) avoid the urge to 3-bet an idiot who you know has a trashy hand, but which is still better than your AK... /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh boy . . . is this painful . . . I wish I could always avoid this urge.

[naphand]

Gotcha! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

It was your post the other week talking of "making small steps back" by playing some short sessions and taking small wins to build confidence, that I was thinking of when I put this in. No offence, I wondered if you would pay off... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

In short, there is nothing wrong with it, but it can lead to a chronic situation where you start to play nervously on an otherwise perfect table (which you should definitely stay on for as long as possible) just because you are slightly up. The idea is good, but in practice can mean you leave money on great tables with perfect opportunity to make a confidence-boosting big win, and stay on others because you are stuck. Be careful!

[Acesover8s]

Guy,

Face it, you're British. There is a reason why you guys don't have limit poker in your casinos, you're just no good at it. Its genetics or something in the air. You may have positive swings, but over time you will revert back to your natural state, of saying "aye raise the pot, anyone for tea and scones?"

Come on back to PLO the money is good, maths are more important, and the Americans are just godawful at it.

Seriously, though, while I have almost no time logged in the party 6max games, I play lots of short-handed holdem (3-5h mainly as you know), and the swings are all over the place. Individual sessions of +-50BB are not rare at all.

I have been coping with not being able to look at my PT database as I have changed after filling the first one with 100k hands which showed me as a 2.6BB/100 winner and now my new database with 15K hands shows me as a .5BB/100 loser.

Good luck, pal, I have no doubt that you can beat this game, as long as you move to the states.

aces

[Dave H.]

Naphand, I took your list and posted it in the GENERAL Forum under the thread "EV and Variance Killers".

I thought it was a great starter list and wanted to give it the attention I thought it deserved.

Hope you don't mind...

Dave H.

[naphand]

No problem, I hope you did not credit me with as well....oo-er /images/graemlins/ooo.gif

[joker122]

hey Guy, i haven't read many posts in this thread.

[ QUOTE ]
Are 25k hand bad runs really that common?

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't know, but my winrate after 35k hands at 5/10 was .5BB/100. After 75k hands it was 2.8B/100.

i've read most of your posts here in the last few months and i can say with confidence you can beat the game for a respectable rate. however, i do like the idea of a 1 week break to clear your head.