How much action?

[Guy McSucker]

Party $5/10 6-max.

I have JJ on the button.

Folded to CO, a player who has always had the goods so far in my 30 hand sample, who raises. I 3-bet. BB, a maniac who has run very well in these 30 hands, calls, as does CO.

Flop: Q 8 3, two hearts. Checked to me, I bet, they both call.

Turn is a J. Checked to me, I bet, BB drops, CO check-raises.

I don't think he would play this way with QQ: he'd cap preflop. The only other hand that beats me is T9, and it's kind of unlikely.

I three-bet. He caps.

River is a blank.

He bets. How much action do you give?

Guy.

[turnipmonster]

raise and call a 3 bet. I think he puts you on an overpair and has two pair.

--turnipmonster

[Scotch78]

Let's assume that QQ, 88 and QJ are the only hands he would play this way. Even if we don't discount the likelihood of QQ based on his pre-flop non-cap, you're still ahead way more than 55% of the time. I'd definitely raise the river, but I wouldn't have the confidence to cap it.

Scott

[Mr. Graff]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's assume that QQ, 88 and QJ are the only hands he would play this way. Even if we don't discount the likelihood of QQ based on his pre-flop non-cap, you're still ahead way more than 55% of the time. I'd definitely raise the river, but I wouldn't have the confidence to cap it.

Scott

[/ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't rule out AQ and KQ. Some like to slowplay these hands. Could even be semi-bluffing a flush draw. Chances you are ahead are huge. Close between raise/cap and raise/cap. I think lots of hands could reraise that you have beat.

[Jeff W]

Raise. If he 3-bets you only need to be ahead 50% of the time you cap it given that you would otherwise call. I think you're ahead of his 3-betting range, so I cap.

[ctv1116]

I was going to argue that he's in a "win one if he's ahead, and lose two if he's behind," but the guy has to be overplaying his hand. The guy probably has QQ because of OP's other thread talking about his frustration with 5/10 6max.

[1800GAMBLER]

Don't be surprised to see AA ... even with it being multiway preflop some still wait for the turn.

[joker122]

i'd just call the river. i don't think he waits until the turn with 88 on a draw heavy board. it sounds weak tight to put him on T9 but statistically it's the most likely hand.

[Guy McSucker]

Thanks everyone.

After a spate of hands where I'd failed to raise with a strong hand on the river because of heavy action from opponents, several of which I posted here, I decided to go with my gut instinct that he didn't have QQ for the preflop action, and I thought he wouldn't have called the flop with T-9 : I raised and capped.

He had T-9.

Straight away I realised his flop call with a gutshot was okay since he was getting over 11-1; he wasn't to know I held two of his four outs.

Guy.

[Noodles]

is there any justification for his capping the turn?
does he think you are a player capable of a laydown when facing lots of aggression? youve not played that much with him so why would he think that?
youve 3 bet pf ,bet the turn,3 bet his turn CR,why does he cap?
cant be vlaue in it,even if he was on a str8 flush draw would capping be value,i doubt it, he has to realise that you can have some of his outs,

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

is there any justification for his capping the turn?


[/ QUOTE ]

He was probably motivated by the fact he's holding the nuts. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Are you saying that I should have realised that? In that case, what's my best play?

Guy.

[Noodles]

[ QUOTE ]
He was probably motivated by the fact he's holding the nuts.


[/ QUOTE ]
somehow i read the results wrong! thoguht he was on str8 draw!
yikes! anyway i think 2 bet the river, choice between capping riv if he 3 bets is icky,i might go for the cap

[Trix]

I think he check-raise or bet 88 on the flop, same with QJ.
He could have a heartdraw, but then he will probably bluff the river anyway, so 3betting doesn´t gain anything.
I actually find T9 very likely here, given your read. I´m not even sure if you should 3bet the turn.

[1800GAMBLER]

<JayP> Trix^, i think you're crazy and i thought exact that when reading your reply.
<JayP> here's how you should work it out
<JayP> P(9T) = P(9T raises preflop) * P(just calls the flop) VS P(QJ) + P(88) = P(QJ raises preflop) * P(just calls the flop) + P(88 raises preflop) * P(88 just calls the flop)
<JayP> so in breif
<JayP> the reason i think you are overvalueing T9s
<JayP> is because
<JayP> 1. there's only 4 combinations of it 2. P(9T raises preflop) is a lot less likely than QJ and 88 raising preflop and 3. P(88 just calls the flop) happens almost as much as t9s calling the flop
<JayP> you can set math values to them all if you want. i.e. something like 60% of unknown party poker players are aggressive enough to raise 9Ts and 90% are aggressive enough to raise 88 or JQ
<JayP> then work it out.
<JayP> and this is saying AA isn't a possiblity
<JayP> which i don't think is true, since about 10% maybe 20% of the time AA gets cocky and waits untill the turn to raise
<JayP> If he waits to the turn 100% with both holdings (not really true)
<JayP> cancelling down
<JayP> P(9T raises preflop) VS P(QJ raises preflop) + P(88 raises preflop)
<JayP> for me, the reason i raise is because i don't think 9ts raises that much preflop here.
<JayP> that's what it all comes down to for me