AQs flops nut flush, turn pairs...

[Pat Southern]

2/4 game at a local cardroom. 7 people taking a raised flop is pretty standard. MP2 isn't bad, loose passive.

Dealt A /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ/images/graemlins/heart.gif UTG. I raise, UTG+1 cold calls, MP1 coldcalls, MP2 3 bets, CO cold calls 3, I cap, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP 2 calls, CO calls.

Flop is j /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
I bet, MP1 folds, MP2 raises, CO calls, I 3 bet, MP2 calls, CO folds.

Turn is j /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I bet, MP2 raises, I call.

River is 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I bet, MP2 raises, I call

[molawn2mo]

Though mp2's pf and flop actions are consistant w/JJ, they are also consistant with other hands like KK, QQ, AA or a badly played KhJ, I would raise the turn and raise the river.

Sometimes you lose to JJ but more often you collect.

[ErrantNight]

i'm not sure i like a preflop cap, here. i think it's unlikely you get a fold (although you did), and i don't think your equity is that high... not to mention huge pots with lots of calling stations tend to make it harder to bet them out on later streets if you're trying to protect your hand. there's no reason to suspect it will get capped behind you, and even then i think you make up for the loss of perceived initiative to get a read on anyone besides MP2 who REALLY likes their hand (or, is willing to chip spew).

given your cap i like the flop bet, and i like the 3-bet... surprising that CO folds closing the action.

i think you should raise the turn. the only hand you're afraid of is exactly JJ. the loose passive, not bad read is a little frightening here... but is your read strong enough that the ONLY hand he would play this aggressively is JJ? If his 3-betting standards are pretty high, you may really only be hoping to be up against a KK with a heart, or perhaps AA, (I'm assuming he doesn't 3-bet with AJ?) but if you think you're behind on the turn i really dislike your river bet. it changes nothing.

so see the showdown cheaply if you have think you're behind, raise the turn if you think you're ahead.