New Record!

[zephyr]

I just currently surpassed my previous record. I'm now on 13 OTM in a row, and counting. In the past 300 games I've already had a 12 OTM in a row streak. Ohh variance.

Zephyr

[Strollen]

Congrats

This was just my question are SNGs really streakying?

My first 25 SNGs I thought I was hot [censored]. 60%+ ITMs, ROI > 120% and 4 1st in a row. But boy the poker gods giveth and taketh away. When I'm all in with QQ somebody else has KKs. I call the loose small stack with my JJ vs his 10 10 and the button calls with A6off and wins. On the bubble I push with Ad5d suited after a AK3 rainbow and am called by 2nd place stack with A6off.

I've finished out of the money 15 times in a row and starting to wonder what the heck is going wrong.

If anything my play is tighter (although still lose by the board standarder) than when I was winning. ROI is still 44% but.. At what point to I chalk this up to bad play vs luck?

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]

This was just my question are SNGs really streakying?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

Over my first 100 tournaments for the month of December, I had a -0.9% ROI for a total loss of -$20.
Over my next 100 tournaments, I had a 42.7% ROI for a profit of +$940.

This is not at all unusual, IMO.

Consider: ONE change from 4th to 1st in a 100 tournament sequence changes your ROI for that 100 by 4.5%.

[zephyr]

New Record: 17 OTM in a row, finally broken by a 3rd place.

Cheers,

Zephyr

[vindikation]

17 YIKES!!!

I was going to post asking what everyone's record is for the longest OTM. Well I have two answers, and they are mighty scary.

What $ level are you guys playing?

[zephyr]

This was at the 33's. You should have seen my girlfriends reaction when I told her I lost over 500 dollars in 3 hours.

Zephyr

[ghostface]

You shoulda seen my girlfriends reaction to 300 in 30 minutes.

[Big Limpin']

...or imagine Daliman's g/f yesterday! /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[vindikation]

Do you guys think you would have lost 15 in a row if you were not multitabling?

If you were specifically concentrating on each game (if they only took place one at a time) do you think you would have played anything differently?

[Sidekick]

I have gone OOTM 17 in a row as well. During that stretch I went in with the worst hand 3 times (QQ vs KK, QQ vs AA and KK vs AA), I lost 3 coin flips and the other 11 loses were hands that were 60/40 or better (most were much better).

Single table or multi-tabling when the cards fall wrong, I just don't think it matters much. During that stretch I was reviewing hand histories, checking threads for relavent hands, etc. I really couldn't fault much in how I played in that stretch.

I have had stretches where I won several in a row where I played worse than I did during my losing stretch, but I happened to catch cards when my opponent had the better hand.

Sometimes variance is just going to rear up and bite you in the rear. Not a bloody thing you can do about it.

[boedeker]

i have played 24 200s this weekend with 2 3rds, 16 4ths, 4 5ths, and 3 random placings below 5th. Hows that for a streak?

[boedeker]

go ahead and add a 2nd to that. shoulda been a first mother flopper.

[boedeker]

uh oh. 3 in the moneys? 2 2nds and a 1st in a row? the winds of change blow stiff.