To David Sklansky/Mason Malmuth

I have a question. If I play in a one table satallte and I can consitantly win first place 30% of the time, is that poor, good or great?


What is the statistical average for someone to win first place in a satallite?


Any strategy tips I can add to my arsenal would be appreciated.


Thank you very much for your time.

It's 9 to 1 against to win a one table satellite. If, however, you're as good as T.J. Cloutier, Phil Hellmuth, or Erik Seidel, it can be 8 to 2. The best players in the world can win a one table satelite only 20% of the time, which is very good.

Well either your stats are wrong or im better then these pros your talking about. I really want this answered by Sklansky or Malmuth. Thats about the only way I can really believe I'm recieveing a credible answer. No offense.

Your question is stupid and your answer to NOBODY is rude. NOBODY is right and his stats are correct, see say by Bob Ciaffone on this subject in 'Improve your Poker'. No player in the world is capable of consistently winning 30% of the satellites he plays in.


If you were as good as you say you are, you would not be asking this. And what strategy tips are you looking for if you're already winning 3 ouf ten satellites you play in? Up the average to 50%? - Haller

First, if you are winning 30% of the single tble satellites which you are playing,(I'm assuming you're talking Paradise tourneys, but it makes little difference.), you should quit your job and play $100 single table tourneys for 10 hours a day, avaeraging a tourney an hour. Stating conservatively, for every $1090 you spend on buy-ins, you receive $1500 back, for an average day's profit of $410. This does not even take into account the fact that if you are good enough to win 30% of the time that you will probably be in the money an additional 3x out of ten. Again, being conservative, let's say their all 3rd's, that's an additional $600, for a tidy average daily profit of $1010. Not too shabby. If you're talking staright winner-take-all satellites, you're just short of tripling your money on average. I'd say that's pretty good. Most would agree


Second, there are many more experts on this site than just Sklansky & Malmuth. Your query does not require expert analysis anyways, and if either S or M were to answer you, I can assure you that you would not like what they would have to say. The term, "Blithering Idiot" comes to mind.


Thirdly, I'll save you the suspense. Now I don't know you, but no, you are not better than "these pros" ANYBODY was talking about. The fact that your response connotates that you do not know who "these pros" are speaks volumes as to you dearth of understanding of the game. Wanna know who they are? Think David Duval and Phil Mickelson, in a Sport without a Tiger Woods. That's Phil and TJ.


It's real simple; if you win 3 out of ten, great. You're doing fantastic. Keep it up. I'm not sure if ANYBODY's stat's are wrong, but they sound about right. Be thankful anyone at all answered your pompously self-serving, asinine post.


YES. YOU ARE DOING GREAT!

Happy now.


P.S. I won my first 3 no-limit single table hold'em tourneys, cashed in first 7 and after 36 of them had 11 wins, 7 seconds, and 9 thirds. Then I went 11 straight tournaments without cashing, coming in 4th in 8, count'em 8 of them. So don't get ahead of yourself sparky. And no, you're not better than me either, I'd bet.

Im sorry if I seemed rude to anyone. I Truly Do Apoligize. I asked the question to Sklansky and Malmuth because I used several of their ideas combined to acheive these results. The percentegs I came up with where done on wilson software. I used the settings of average, above average and tuff and each time I run these tests the results are the same. At least 30% win rate everytime and once as high as 40%. I do plan on quiting my day job to play in tournaments with in the next five years. Once again, I'm sorry if anyone was offended.

Me too!


When I first started playing the Paradise tournaments, I came first once, then didn't cash in three, then came first eleven successive times. That's 12 wins in 15 attempts. Not bad. To reduce this to 30% wins, I would have to play a further 25 tournaments without cashing. When you've won 11 on the spin this seems highly unlikely to happen.


Guess what? I've now played hundreds of the things and I come first only about 15% of the time. A lot of second places mean I'm ahead, but hour for hour better off playing cash.


Why am I saying this? Just to tell you what you already know, which is that before you can be confident of a 30% win rate, you have to play hundreds if not thousands of tournaments. The long run is a long way off...


If your stats are from a reasonably large sample (>100 tourneys, say) then they're extremely impressive, I think.


I'd be very interested to see your full stats! Sounds like you're doing great.


Cheers,


Guy.

more info for you. While Wilson's software is invaluable, don't let the results fool you too much. I play 1 or 2 of the WSOP $10,000 event structure games a day with 650 players and cash about 25% of the time and win about 3% of the time, playing against the tough competition. TTH has more than a few weak spots in the play of the hands, such as people calling all-in with ace high on the river for like 8000TC when they only have 1000TC committed against a preflop raiser with undercards on board. Hell, sometimes i lose to the ace high in those very situations, but the point of the matter is that you will find very few even halfway decent players who will do this, a probably damned few pros,(unless they've got a ironclad tell). Point of the matter is, these types of plays, and other errors more slight definitely skew the results. Keep practicing, make sure you read and re-read Theory of poker, and make sure you get Sklansky's new Tournament book also. Good luck.

30% win rate on wilson software means NOTHING. It does show promise that you are winning more then 3 in 10 but as another poster has responded the wilson tourney software is fun but not overly difficult.


Good luck once you hit the real tables /images/smile.gif


Ken Poklitar

ohKanada@Hotmail.com

You may be a great player; maybe you're the next Phil Helmuth, do you feel tall and obnoxious? Seriously, you skills are probably closer to mine than to Phil's; there is no sin in that. I got seriously involved in playing single table tourney last year, so I'll give you my results.


I am a good hold 'em player beating the game for a little over 1 BB an hour over the the last year.

I played 174 single table tourneys on Paradise. I place first in 22 tourneys 12.64% seconc 24 times 13.79% and third 19 times 10.92%. For a total of 65 times in the money or 37.36%. They were a mix of 10,20 and 30 dollar events(Mostly $10).


I invested $2211 I returned $2640 for a profit of $429 or 19.4%. My average was $15.17 per tourney.


These are real world numbers, and I think they are indicative of a good tournament player. Take it for what it is worth.


May the flop be with you,


Fitz

Guy,


Are you from South Africa? The tone of your post remeinds me of an acquaintance from South Africa who's name happens to be Guy.


Fitz

David, Mason


Please answer any questions I might have about poker. Thank You.


Any other ignorant posters here need not reply.


I intend to become pro one day since I now beat "Friday Night" poker consistently. That's endorsed by you so I know it's good!


Since I win so consistently, I would like to know if I am a great player or merely very good.


Thanks again

Mike N

No, I'm English.


I hope this distinctive tone I seem to have picked up isn't an offensive one...


Cheers,


Guy.

There are clearly a lot of angry, long term losers, giving there advice on how to become losers like themselves here. Which is the reason I asked for a professionals advice and not that of a tire repair man. I'm not asking if I am great or not. I am asking about some testing results so I can have professional and accurate information. If anyone is offended by my sarcasim, thats too bad, I will not apoligize again. We should not have to be brow beaten for asking questions and using a message post for the purpose of which it was designed. Too ask questions. Not to be slammed by angry, losing, wanna-be, poker players.

Not offensive at all, but it did remind me of someone.


May the flop be with you,


Fitz

mvaandecar,


Do you not think it is ludicrous of you to be beating a Wilson software program one day and expect to be taken seriously on these forums the next by players with MUCH more experience than you in live play? Your original post was condecending at the very least and insulting to all the other inteligent posters at best, not to mention your response to ANYBODY, who in my opinion is a very responsible knowledgeable poster.


No more apologies are expected just a little common sense as to from whom you should be asking and taking advice.


Jimbo

I'm a tire salesman,(really). I'm not a long term loser either. Just a short term one.