We were all having so much fun I figured why stop the party at 3?

[runa]

UTG is LA-P
CO is LA-A
Button is unknown

Building a pot or just spewing?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>....

[ErrantNight]

i'd like the cap much more if you had a backdoor flush draw...

with only three, closing the action, i'm not sure you have the odds to cap.

that said... i'm torn as to whether capping benefits you if you hit your draw on the turn. i'm thinking they like their hands enough to get crazy on the turn, too, regardless, and your cap perhaps slows things down a bit.

i'm a lil torn, but i think just call the flop and see what happens on the turn. it's certainly what i would do... but anyone else want to offer that i'm wrong to do so?

[BaronVonCP]

The action stops when you hit your draw, regardless of the action before.

I don't like the cap at all, but it really doesn't make much difference.

[ErrantNight]

against an unknown and a postflop lag?

[vipchump]

I like the flop play. As someone mentioned it would be nice if you had a backdoor flush draw, but you do have ~1.5 outs for your ace. I think calling and raising are close, but hey aren't we all lags?

[runa]

[ QUOTE ]
but hey aren't we all lags?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol...that's what I'm saying yo.

[sthief09]

chip spewing

[holdemfan]

Lets look at your outs. catch a 9? what if raiser has QK? catch a Q? what if raiser has ATs, KK, AK? Did he raise with your Q in his hand? It looks worth playing but your outs are probably less than you suspect. By getting your hand you may find it also gave them the best hand. Someone has top pair or two pair now and the other is probably drawing to top straight or a fish. Calling is scary but not a sin. Raising is not advised. Proceed with great caution.
In my humble Opinion,
Holdemfan

[runa]

I don't think my 9 outs count as good for anything since it completes the 4 str8. The original UTG raiser folded already and the CO is really aggro/loose so there's a decent chance I'm ahead if I hit the ace. I think the normal 1/2 devalue per ace out is reasonable for the times someone holds a 2-pair or pairs up with the ace.

I have probably a little over 1/3 chance to improve by the river with 9.5 outs, so calling is certainly not out of the question.

[Rico Suave]

Runa:

I think you might overvalue your 1 card OESD. With only 2 opponents in, I think you are not getting much value by capping the flop. If you were the button and could likely get a free card, then maybe, but up front, I would just call.

--Rico

[runa]

I wasn't sure there was another way to look at it. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

If we devalue the ace outs and give 8 to the OESD, that gives us 9.5 outs.

I am assuming we will be taking this to the river so:
Chance to improve on turn = 9.5/47 ~ 20%
Chance to improve on river = 9.5/46 ~ 20%
Combined chance to improve = 40% (add since its an or function)
This translates to 2.5:1 to improve
Since there are 2 others in the pot with me I'm getting 2:1 on each bet put in, so this seems like a posEV raise.

If you're talking about accounting for the times I split the pot when I do complete my straight, I'm not certain how to devalue the OESD outs to account for this. Any tips?

[JinX11]

[ QUOTE ]
Chance to improve on turn = 9.5/47 ~ 20%
Chance to improve on river = 9.5/46 ~ 20%
Combined chance to improve = 40% (add since its an or function)

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummmm...

So, if event A is 50% likely to occur and event B is 50% likely to occur, I can be 100% sure that either A or B will happen???

Negative.

[27offsooot]

Possibility of a split pot/ redraws for a set or two pair/ ace out being worthless makes your outs far less than 9.5 IMO. Flop seemed to be destined to be capped regardless though. Worth the call, but don't get cute with a lot of dubious outs. If the raise could get u a free card, maybe raise, but here, it won't.

[lu_hawk]

You don't add probablities like that to get the overall probability. You multiply the chance that it won't happen. So in your case it is not .2+.2 it is 1-(.8*.8) which gives you a 36% chance to improve.

Plus you have a 1 card OESD to the non-nuts so you have to devalue it some for the times you split or lose to a higher straight.

[runa]

Thanks, I realized my mistake soon after, need to brush up on my probability. I also screwed up the total ratio. Nonetheless:

36% ~ 1.7:1 on a 2:1 shot. This still seems posEV unless I devalue the OESD str8 outs somehow.

The real topic of this thread should be then how I devalue the outs of the OESD for the non-nut straight, and I don't think I know a quick and dirty way to figure that one out. Anybody?

[nebben]

Is it possible to approach this from a pot equity respect?
Because you actually seem to have a pot equity deficit in my opinion. I know this only applies to raising for value, but your unlikely to win by spiking your ace in my opinion to a three better, so its really all about your gutshot isnt it? and even that has to be devalued giving the action.

Is this the wrong way of looking at it?

[Number4]

I agree with thief - looks like chip spewing to me. Also, I think it was the first poster who said it, but I would like the cap only with a backdoor flush draw.

p.s. - Are you familiar with the Hiten Mitsurugi fighting style?

[runa]

Actually given the 3-bet from a LA-A I don't give it that much credit and I think the A outs devalued to 1.5 may even be a generous assumption. I'm not good at calculating pot equity but I'm willing to hear your take on it.

[runa]

I agree that a backoor flush draw would help quite a bit. In that case you'd advocate a cap or still against it?

p.s. As it relates to poker, perhaps the ability to react to my opponents playing aura (playing style) and strike appropriately (superior poker strategy) I think I am working on it. If you want me to bust out a Hiten Mitsurugi Ouki Ama Kakeru Ryu No Hirameki in a Batto Jutsu (HU match) then forget about it.

[CinnamonWind]

[ QUOTE ]
chip spewing

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, did you have to have someone hold back your hair for this? :P

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
chip spewing

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, did you have to have someone hold back your hair for this? :P

[/ QUOTE ]

If there was any doubt before that Cinnamon was a woman...

[runa]

[ QUOTE ]

Yes, did you have to have someone hold back your hair for this? :P

[/ QUOTE ]
lol...sorry that's usually just a girl thing.

[CinnamonWind]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Yes, did you have to have someone hold back your hair for this? :P

[/ QUOTE ]
lol...sorry that's usually just a girl thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought all poker players had long, greasy hair ... or maybe they just don't mind it getting a bit encrusted?

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
This translates to 2.5:1 to improve

[/ QUOTE ]
Even disregarding the fact that your math here is wrong (as others have pointed out), you can often improve and still lose. You somewhat took that into account with your ace outs by devaluing them, you seem to be assuming the in all scenarios where a Q or 7 comes as a turn or river card, you always win, and this is far from true. Not only may you chop, but you can easily lose despite one of the remaining cards being a Q or 7. This is not posev because you aren't winning as often as you think.

[runa]

I already know the OESD should be devalued, but I'm looking for constructive suggestions to devalue the outs in a fair manner.

What percentage of the time do you think I chop here and what percentage of the time, when a Q hits, will my opponent hold exactly AK or K9 for a higher straight? I don't think its a large percentage of the time, but I agree that it still matters.

The 7 outs are probably a win or split situation, and the Q outs are similar with a small chance of losing to AK or K9.

Are you suggesting we devalue the OESD to 6 or 7 instead of 8? What measure seems reasonable and why?

[runa]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought all poker players had long, greasy hair ... or maybe they just don't mind it getting a bit encrusted?

[/ QUOTE ]
Hey now, that's just our female counterparts. j/k. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[runa]

So I waved my arms around, did a little crazy spin move, a little razzle-dazzle and voila! Free card play from EP.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (10.75 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, CO checks, Button checks.

River: (10.75 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, CO checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 10.75 BB

I thought this hand was interesting because my flop cap might've freaked them out. Who knows what goes on in the mind of crazy poker players?

Nobody knows how to devalue them outs still huh? I can't imagine the question hasn't been asked before.