When to take a coin flip?

[CardMinger]

Hello,

I often find myself in a situation knowing that I am putting my tournament on the line for a coin flip. For instance last nite I was playing a $20+2 on Party and was holding ATs in the BB. It was folded to the the Button who raises to T250 (Blinds were 50-100). I knew he was a loose raiser and probably had KT or QJ. Assuming I was 100% on my read and I think he will call me do I push here?

He covers me totally because at this time (after the T100 blind) I only have about T550 chips.

If this is not the situation to play a coin flip then when is? What if I put him on a low PP and was holding AKo...do I push then?

Just a little confused on this part of SnG strategy and hope you all could clear things up a little!

Thanks a lot!

[skirtus]

If you look in the FAQ thread there are some good articles about Push EV and calling all-ins from the BB. These two articles helped me the most. I used these articles to learn how to calculate EV of plays. Than I started doing my own calcs. This helped me alot in understanding hand strength vs a variety or raising standards. In this particular hand the raiser would have to be very tight for me to fold. I would push here everytime against a loose or standard raiser. Now Im making this decision based on your chip stack, his late position raise, and the money already in the pot. I think the question you have to ask is what hands would I push here with around 5BB left vs a loose raiser.

[Sidekick]

I would like to know how many players are left at this point as well as their stack sizes as that can greatly affect your decision, but...

I push here. This looks like a steal attempt to me and you have what sounds like a small stack. You have a pretty solid hand for a heads up match with button. It's a good time to try and double up or send the message to be careful about trying to steal your blinds.

If I have AKo then I don't even bat an eye before I push this one. Unless I am positive that button has AA or KK then I'm pushing with AKo in this situation. And how often are you going to be certain that your opponent has AA or KK preflop?

My experience is that later in tournaments (around level 4 or 5 and up) that it isn't going to be too often that you get to go in with a huge advantage in your hand. Most situations seems to involve pushing small edges and hope that they hold up.

Hope this helps.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Hello,

I often find myself in a situation knowing that I am putting my tournament on the line for a coin flip. For instance last nite I was playing a $20+2 on Party and was holding ATs in the BB. It was folded to the the Button who raises to T250 (Blinds were 50-100). I knew he was a loose raiser and probably had KT or QJ. Assuming I was 100% on my read and I think he will call me do I push here?

He covers me totally because at this time (after the T100 blind) I only have about T550 chips.

If this is not the situation to play a coin flip then when is? What if I put him on a low PP and was holding AKo...do I push then?

Just a little confused on this part of SnG strategy and hope you all could clear things up a little!

Thanks a lot!

[/ QUOTE ]

In what alternate universe is AT vs KT or QJ a "coin flip"?

eastbay

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hello,

I often find myself in a situation knowing that I am putting my tournament on the line for a coin flip. For instance last nite I was playing a $20+2 on Party and was holding ATs in the BB. It was folded to the the Button who raises to T250 (Blinds were 50-100). I knew he was a loose raiser and probably had KT or QJ. Assuming I was 100% on my read and I think he will call me do I push here?

He covers me totally because at this time (after the T100 blind) I only have about T550 chips.

If this is not the situation to play a coin flip then when is? What if I put him on a low PP and was holding AKo...do I push then?

Just a little confused on this part of SnG strategy and hope you all could clear things up a little!

Thanks a lot!

[/ QUOTE ]

In what alternate universe is AT vs KT or QJ a "coin flip"?

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, but QJ only 3% or so off of what is commonly considered a "coin flip". KT obviously 3-1 or so dog.

[CardMinger]

Eastbay,

You are correct, I think I meant to put KJ and not KT for his hand.

[CardMinger]

At this point there were 6 players left. Most had slightly more than 1K and besides myself there was one other shortstack.

In this position...if you were playing with the cards face up and you had AKo in the BB and the button raises 2.5 BB with 55 do you push here? What if the button holds AKo and you hold 55?

Or should you just not push that marginal edge and wait for players to self destruct...knowing you are a better player than most and can make some well timed steals and good plays when it gets down to four?

Thanks!

[pshreck]

I call situations where there is 1 overcard a coinflip.

Like A 5 against Q 10... etc.

A10 vs K10 is about a coinflip though.... right /images/graemlins/wink.gif?

[CardMinger]

Skirtus,

[ QUOTE ]
If you look in the FAQ thread there are some good articles about Push EV and calling all-ins from the BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you link these articles as I have not been able to find them in the FAQ.

Thanks a lot!

[Sidekick]

With 6 left and my stack now being about 1/2 of most of the other players' stacks (if all but one of them is over 1k chips) I definately push AKo against 55. In truth it doesn't matter if they hold 22-QQ. You are looking to hit while hoping they avoid the set.

If I have 55 against the AKo, then again I push in this situation. Neither situation is ideal, but if I am the short stack I may not get a better hand before I'm blinded down to the point where everyone at the table is correct to call me no matter what 2 cards they hold.

Ideally I'd like to have AA vs. Axo, but I rarely get an ideal situation when I'm short stacked. If I get a coin flip or better to double up, then I have to take it when the blinds are high and I am hurting for chips.

Regarding waiting for players to self destruct. It will happen sometimes, but generally speaking folks are gunning for the short stacks.

I certainly don't claim to be a great SnG player so my style might not be 'correct'. I have been a winning player so far, even though I don't have the needed 10k SnG sample size to truly determine if I'm a winner or not. /images/graemlins/wink.gif