Couple Interesting Hands My Friend Played

[sthief09]

Party 5/10- he doens't post here much and I'm not entirely sure what I think



Hand 1: He's got 88 and open raises. He's called in one spot.

Flop: K 8 9 rainbow

He bets, guy calls

Turn: Q

He bets, guy raises, he 3-bets, guy caps

River: blank

what's the plan? I'm torn between betting and calling a raise or check-calling. I think the guy can have KQ, 99, or JT. He can occasionally have something like K9, but most of the time he's going to have 1 of those 3 hands. The problem with betting is that 99 or JT will raise, while KQ will just call. If you check, we can be pretty sure KQ will bet, as well are the other hands. check-raising is an option too. you make 2 bets when ahead, and lse 3 bets when behind. if you bet, and get raised, you make 1 bet when ahead and lose 2 when behind. that's 3:2 vs. 2:1. By checking and calling you make or lose 1 bet regardless*. If we think we're ahead less than 60% of the time, then check-calling is the move.

KQ: 9 combinations
JTs: 4 combinations
99: 3 combinations

the other possible hands, like K9s will make up for the chances that JTo might have called preflop. we're ahead 9/16 = 56% of the time. Can we fold to a 3-bet of our check-raise? If so, then check-raising is clearly correct. It's hard to make that fold though, so I'm for check-calling

*- this is all assuming that KQ will bet the river
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Also Party 5/10 full

Hand 2: He raises from the SB with KQo. 4 to the flop

Flop: 8/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif

He bets, 2 callers

Turn: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif

He bets, 2 callers

River: K/images/graemlins/heart.gif

He bets, someone raises $4 all in, he calls


I don't know if I bet the turn. The A is a great scare card, and you might be ahead, but they'd both have to have overcards. Also, even though the A is a scare card, someone who called the flop with a pair isn't that likely to change plans and just fold.

His main question was about the river play. I said he could bet or check and fold. Check-calling will leave him a huge underdog. no one with an 8 or a 6 is going to bet, but they'll definitely call a bet. I think he probably played it well

[BottlesOf]

Based on 0 information as to what game he's even playing:

Hand 1: Bet, call a raise

Hand 2: I need suits, and now I really need stakes, as I don't know what $4 means. I also need to know who raised the river and whether or not it's heads up.

Howver, I can say I like preflop, and, while I'm checking some more of these flops out of position, given a fairly raggy board, I like the bet.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Based on 0 information as to what game he's even playing:

Hand 1: Bet, call a raise

Hand 2: I need suits, and now I really need stakes, as I don't know what $4 means. I also need to know who raised the river and whether or not it's heads up.

Howver, I can say I like preflop, and, while I'm checking some more of these flops out of position, given a fairly raggy board, I like the bet.

[/ QUOTE ]


I edited my post. go read. betting and calling a raise intuitively seems right but it's not

and you don't need suits. KQo on a rainbow board isn't going to make a flush before the ocean

I also wrote "guy calls" instead of "guy caps" in hand 1. read again

[BottlesOf]

Dude, I'm too tired for this, I'm going to bed. However, I looked back at hand 1, and I don't think this is a good psot for Bayesian analysis. First, I don't even know what position the guy's in, but mainly, I think you put him on too narrow a range. I also think JTs doesn't call there pf too often. KQ may even raise the river, but I don't see this river getting raised. What kind of shmuck calls the turn 3-bet to raise the river? It doesn't add up, I think if I check the river, he's checking through too much. Sorry for the ramble.

[Evan]

He capped the turn. Reread again.

[BottlesOf]

Whoops. Clearly, I'm really really too tired. I will defer on this one, and bid everyone goodnight/morning.

[Evan]

hand 1: I check-call because he's betting for sure and I think that were beat here more than 33%.

**My name is Evan and I'm weak tight**

Hand 2: With the guy that shortstacked its fine IMO. Those guys call with almost anything.