Cleveland over Seattle: best bet

Doc River, I believe, liked my analysis at sharpsportsbetting.com on this game, so I'll throw it out here.


Cleveland with Couch is a totally different team. His QB rating last year was just under 80......virtually matching Cleveland's defense rating against the pass.


Seattle had about a 75 QB rating on offense, but gave up a 90 QB rating. Now they have a brand new QB learning their system. Improvement may come, but will it occur early in the season.


Cleveland was +5, is now +4, and perhaps they should be favored. I like the Browns. I like em


ALOT.


Cleveland 20. Seattle 17.

Cleveland didn't have that bad a pass defense because their run defense was terrible and they were behind in a lot of games so they faced easier pass defenses and teams that didn't throw the ball all that much. Their stats are misleading. Besides most agree passer ratings are lousy, they aren't the best stats to use. I think this might be a good spot for Seattle, a team that found itself late in the year. The pass system is almost exactly the same as Hasselback used last year so the adjustment shouldn't be much. I like the Hawks a little here, although I would suggest a pass. I just think Cleveland is still a ways from being a regularly competitive team.

I actually side with Fezzik on this one. I do not have any analysis to offer but this game looks like a classic trap game to me.


Seattle, touted as a playoff team, going into to Cleveland and only favored by 4 points. The number doesn't look right to me. I would have expected closer to 6.

Sea is a road NFL favorite, a horrific subset to ever admit you like the chalk, since this subset has hit, and should continue to hit, at or around 48% ATS. Ok to pass a home favorite. But noone I know ever got rich betting road NFL favorites.


2000 Clev: YPR 3.9 gained, 4.2 against 2000 Sea: YPR 4.3 gained, 4.9 against


2000 Clev: Couch Pass rating 78, "d" pass rating 79 2000 Sea: Pass rating 75, "d" pass rating 90. NINETY!


Also, it is a 10am PST game and Sea played their last preseason game late on the West Course. I suggest you wake up at 4am tomorrow and see how the day goes for you!


Sorry, but this one is off the charts flashing BET CLEVELAND. But what do I know? I'm just a Fezzik after all.

Haha, just a fezzik? Well I will take your notes into consideration, I passed on the game anyways. Just felt it might be a situation where Cle is likely to have misleading stats since they were not very competitive in many games. I do know that a team with the lack of depth the Browns have will be at their best early and late in the season, with a big hole in the middle. They are healthy now so first string can keep them competitive. End of the season and they will be fighting it out since they won't be disappointed with a poor season and will be playing guys fighting for jobs next year.

Seattle's defense is so different from last year that you can't really compare. The defensive line is vastly improved, as are the linebackers. John Randle (who is back at his natural position), Chad Eaton, Levon Kirkland, Marcus Robertson, and NO Matt Labounty.


One thing that is in your favor is that Seattle's top three cornerbacks are all hurt. Shawn Springs, Willie Willams, Ike Charlton are all hurt. They'll be starting Ken Lucas and Paul Miranda. Having Robertson and Reggie Tongue at safety will help, but still theres a lot of inexperience at corner.


The offense is very much improved, simply with the loss of Jon Kitna and the addition of Matt Hasselback at quarterback. Hasselback looked VERY good in the preseason, despite the fact that he was playing against the opposition's first stringers. The O-Line is one of the best in the league. The recievers are young, but Darrell Jackson caught 60+ as a rookie last year. The addition of Bobby Engram will give them a solid third reciever.


The Seahawks may have only been 2-2 in the preseason, but they led every game at half time. The two losses game from the the play of fourth stringers, fifth stringers, and various people who are now bagging groceries somewhere. They were up 14-11 on Indianapolis at the end of the first half, 14-7 on the Saints, 21-7 on the 49ers, and 13-7 on Arizona.


If you're going to win your bet, the play of the corners is going to be your only chance.