That isn't the brick I'm looking for

[Keats13]

Taking another look at the Party 10/20. Full table, mostly loose/passive. BB in this hand is TAG and plays well. CO just sat down and posted.

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
3 limpers, CO (poster) checks, Button folds, I complete my SB. BB raises, all call.

Flop (6 players, 12 SB): K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
I check, BB bets, 1 of the limpers calls, CO raises, I call, BB calls, limper folds.

Turn (3 players, 9.5 BB): A/images/graemlins/club.gif
Checked to CO who bets, I raise, BB thinks and folds, CO calls

River (2 players, 13.5 BB): A/images/graemlins/heart.gif
Hero checks intending to call a bet.

Comments on all streets welcome, particularly the turn and river.

[Nick C]

Tough river.

I'm thinking I could be ahead of 3-pair, but I'm worried about a flush, and I can't rule out a boat either. I don't want to bet-fold here against an unknown, especially since he could easily have me on a straight and might take a shot at me in this large pot.

So I think I'd be deciding between bet-calling and check-calling. I really don't know though -- especially at 10/20, which I've never played -- so partly I just wanted to bump this and see what others have to say. Rivers like this one give me trouble.

On the turn, I'm pretty sure I would checkraise, like you did.

[MoreWineII]

I'm betting the river. What is it that CO has played this way so far that beats you?

He doesn't have AK, the preflop action tells us that. I don't think he has TT either.

I think he'd take a free turn card with his flush draw.

Maybe you're worried about 88, but I think it's 50/50 he'd 3-bet the turn with 88.

The only argument I can see for not betting is that CO probably isn't going to call you with a hand that you beat, like KT, K8.

Anyway, I think I'd go ahead and bet. Loco?

[ErrantNight]

against an unknown i think this is a pretty clear value bet.

the river makes boats and flushes possible... but i don't see any reason to specifically fear those, here.

i'd bet the river, but i'd be a little worried about a river raise.

[Fat Nicky]

I bet and call a raise. You're ahead of plenty of possible holding the CO might have.

[SamIAm]

I say bet the river. You're beating so many hands that will call you here. Hell, even if he raises you, I'd still be happy to call. All's he gotta have is an ace, and he'll think he's winning.

I agree that you have to worry about the boat, but there aren't that many hands that made their boat that wouldn't raise preflop.
-Sam

[Keats13]

Funny, I checked at lunch and had no replies, so I figured this thread was dead.

MW, I actually went through that list of hands that beat me and agreed that they were all unlikely, for the same reasons. Unlikely, but not impossible.

I thought it was possible that he was semi-bluffing a flush draw on the turn. I also thought he could have 88 (maybe TT, some people are afraid to raise that PF in a large field).

However, I thought I had telegraphed my hand pretty explicitly by this point, and didn't know what worse hands he would call with. I thought he might take a shot at the pot by betting something I beat if I checked.

[Keats13]

Do you think an unknown is more likely to call or bet a hand that I have beat in this situation?