Steal picked off, but so many outs

[Sluss]

PR 50+4

CO has been Laggy, but not out of line. Probably doesn't make this move without something. I was really looking for a call or fold on this flop. Maybe I should have pushed the flop, but maybe a check. That just seems so weak. I hate commiting all of my chips on a draw.


Seat 1: SB ($1,030 in chips)
Seat 2: BB ($1,150 in chips)
Seat 3: UTG ($3,170 in chips)
Seat 5: UTG +1 ($2,330 in chips)
Seat 7: MP ($1,955 in chips)
Seat 8: HERO [8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif,9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif] ($1,695 in chips)
Seat 9: CO ($1,990 in chips)
Seat 10: Button ($1,680 in chips)



ANTES/BLINDS
SB posts blind ($75), BB posts blind ($150).

PRE-FLOP
UTG folds, UTG +1 folds, MP folds, HERO bets $375, CO calls $375, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds.

FLOP [board cards 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif,J /images/graemlins/heart.gif,7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif ] (t975)
HERO bets $450, CO bets $1,615 and is all-in, HERO ?????

[tigerite]

You have half your stack in the pot, with a good number of outs, worst case scenario he has AJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Pretty unlikely. I push the flop, though.

[UMTerp]

Agreed. Can't fold this. Though you should've realized that and pushed yourself first. Easy call.

[nuclear500]

Straight flush draw on a steal attempt? I'd be reluctant to commit the entire stack, but would probably do it - 15 outs (given he does not have two bigger spades)

If he has TPTK beaten, it is his fault for not reraising.

[tubbyspencer]

You've got about 11xBB before you pick up this hand, nowhere near panic stage. I assume some folks will reply that they'd "fold that cheese" PreFlop.

I like these kinds of hands, but...

(1) I think you should bet the standard 3x BB pre flop if you raise here at all.

(2) I think you have to be prepared to push with that flop. Get some fold equity. What flop were you hoping for with mid suited connectors, if not a four flush plus the good end of a gut shot?

(3) Limping is an option with this hand, because if someone calls behind you, you can then make a pot sized bet on this flop, without committing your whole stack. But if you raise 3x pre-flop, any reasonable bet on the flop almost commits you, so I prefer a push at that point.

[tigerite]

Limping? You must be joking. I raise it for a steal, not because it's anything like a playable hand, to fold to a re-raise, but also because you can hit flops like this (which is about the best you can hope for) if called. It's nothing to do with panic stages, it's to do with picking up the blinds when you have enough chips to play with.

[stillnotking]

You probably have the best hand here, bearing in mind that "best hand" means "hand with the best chance of winning", not "hand that happens to be in the lead at the moment". I would call instantaneously given the amount of money that's already in the pot. Worst case scenario is the villain holding a bigger flush draw, which is possible but unlikely. Best case, he might have something like AK or AQ with no spades, giving you 21 outs and making you the clear favorite to win.

[ChrisV]

I personally don't think these kind of mid position steals are good with this kind of stack size, but that's a side issue.

This hand is an absolute rock. You're a favourite against top pair and 40% against a set. Versus something reasonably likely like A7, you're a 70/30 favourite. You should have pushed on the flop, and folding to this raise would be awful.

To "I don't like committing all my chips with a draw", all I can say is get over it. There aren't "draws" and "made hands" when you're going allin, all there are is hands, with a percentage likelihood of being the best hand after all 5 cards are out. This one's better than TPTK.

[Sluss]

Thanks for the replies.

This is a major bust out situation for me. I have a large amount of 6th and 5th place finishes and most of them are on hands like these. Come in for a steal, get a call and then see a flop with a lot of outs, push and then see my draw never get there.

Chris is probably right, I should wait for a better spot. Just steal when my stack is a little more healthy. That might just be the best course.

By the way I went Hellmuth on this one, folded. Because I was better than the whole table. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif Then I finished in fourth never able to double up my short stack. I knew it was stupid that second and earmarked it as my mistake. For what it's worth the guy claimed he had A /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif, but that and a quarter will get you a cup of coffee.

[HUSKER'66]

I'm not a big fan of commiting almost 1/4 of my chips on a blind steal with 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, and two players who have me covered left to act behind me. One or two more spots to the left same situation (first to enter pot) I can see it but hey....that's just me.

Given the scenario you describe, your best to push all in on the flop. The pots laying 925t and you've got 1320t left. You've shown strength preflop and your not going to find a better situation to semi bluff with all your outs. This is a great flop for you, what more can you ask for? (other than flopped two pair, trips, or a freak straight)

Push and let him chew on the fact that he'll be down near the felt with 245t if he loses.

Just my thoughts,

Husker