Interesting Sattelite Situation - All in or Fold?

[Goodie54]

I was playing in a sat. on Stars the other night and this situation came up. Nine Players got the seat and thier were 11 of us left. I had around 12,000, one other player at the other table had about 13,000 and there was a really short stack of about 3,000 at our table. The rest of the stacks were well over 20,000. The blinds were 1k and 2k with a 100 dollar ante.

I was in the sb and it was folded around to me and I had around 11,000 after posting. My hand was A 7 off. The BB has about 26,000 and has been playing careful just like everyone else.

Should I push or fold?

Peace

Goodie

[schwza]

i haven't played a lot of satellites, but i would push here. the chips will help you a lot, so it's not a dumb risk for you. but the bigger stack should feel safe cruising into the money with his stack and should be very reluctant to call here without a premium hand.

i think it would be a very bad play if the BB called you with AQ here, and calling with AK would be pretty marginal as well. If you get called, it'll most likely be by QQ-AA, so it's good that you're making this play with an A.

(btw, i've just started playing some satellites to the sunday stars 215 and also in the party steps tourneys, so if my understanding of the late game dynamic are way off, let me know.)

[kuro]

I'd just fold. You just made it through your blinds and that short stack is unlikely to make it another orbit. Even if the short stack doubles up, he's still half your stack. The big stack on the other hand could decide to coin flip with you to end it, because even if he loses the flip he's still got a big enough stack that he's probably going to win a seat.

[schwza]

if you were the big stack, what kind of hand would you need to call here? i'd fold JJ without too much hesitation. let another biggish stack do the dirty work. IMO, it's a horrible result for the big stack to get into a coinflip right now as doubling up only marginally increases chances of getting seat (from quite high to a little higher) whereas losing half your chips is a disaster.

[kuro]

If I was the big stack here, I'd muck Aces because I know that I am virtually guaranteed a spot as long as I don't do something stupid or take a bad beat. That guy with 3k is certainly going out before me.

However, many people don't understand this concept. Some people still play aggressively even though they've already won. I don't know if it is just ego or what.

So if I'm the guy with A7, I'm not going to take the risk of getting called when another stack is going to be blinded out this orbit.

[Luke]

kuro,

Unless I'm reading it wrong, it looks like there are 11 of them left and 9 go, so the short stack as well as someone else needs to go out for the remaining 9 to get seats.

I still think Goodie can push here as the SB and BB will still be forced to play very tightly.

Luke

[Sam T.]

At this point you can stop thinking about the Gap Concept and turn your mind to the Chasm Concept.

If (and this is a huge if) the BB has a brain, he's folding any two at this point. But as Sklansky says, the Gap Concept only applies if everyone at the table knows about it.

[kinger]

because there are 2 more people left to go and you are the 10th biggest stack you will eventually need to make a move. this is a great spot to push.

kinger

[kuro]

Ack, you're absolutely right. I misread that and thought 10 of them paid.

I'd push then.

[adanthar]

As hinted at in the thread, there are really two questions you have to answer:

-Does the BB know about the Gap Concept (ie, will he make a 'loose' call with AK?)

-Does everyone else in the tourney know about the Gap Concept (ie, is there a big stack or two at either table making loose calls?)

[Goodie54]

I'm glad most of you agree with what I did. I pushed, unfortunatly the BB woke up with Queens and I wasted three hours.

Thanks for all the responses.

Peace

Goodie

[schwza]

i would've folded QQ in the BB, if it makes you feel any better.