JJ facing a turn bet

[bisonbison]

This is a great table. MP1 has been at the table for 2 orbits and folded preflop twice. He doesn't seem laggy. Just bad.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.16 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>...

How close do we think calling down v. folding is?

[AdamL]

I think there is a similar hand to this in SSH. The bet comes out of nowhere and you should raise.

However, you say he is bad. Bad players don't think about check-raising, nor are they likely just good enough (but still bad enough) to lead bet a bluff. So if he is that bad, maybe all he can have is the 6.

I guess you'd need to trust your read a LOT to fold here.

/images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Evan]

I'm calling down here 100% of the time. I don't have any great reasoning, but i think you're good more than 30% or whatever it's gotta be given pot odds and the chance to spike a jack.

[BWebb]

Bad players tend to bluff too much, I call down (especially against an unknown).

[Joe Tall]

He doesn't seem laggy. Just bad.

Then raise the turn.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]
How close do we think calling down v. folding is?


[/ QUOTE ]

Let a raise on the turn be the last amount of money you contribute to this pot unless the river brings a jack.

Stu

[bisonbison]

Then raise the turn.

Are you seeing this as a fold to a 3-bet take a free showdown situations?

Or would you bet a river blank as well?

[Joe Tall]

Are you seeing this as a fold to a 3-bet take a free showdown situations?

Yes.

Welcome to your forum,
Joe Tall

[bisonbison]

I don't use this play cause I get scared.

The logic is: because he's not laggy you're not going to get bluffed out by a 3-bet, he may fold a hand with a few outs against you (A7 or somesuch), and it costs the same as calling down?

Welcome to the first day of the rest of your life,
bisonbison

[CinnamonWind]

I'll go against the crowd here and say fold. You're in a small pot and you're likely beaten. Bad players don't have the imagination for plays, usually. I think you're looking at a 6 or queen almost certainly.

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
I think there is a similar hand to this in SSH. The bet comes out of nowhere and you should raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought though that in that example you hold TPTK, or an overpair...at least that's how i remember it. b/c when the board pairs the bad player is very likely to bet his top pair weak kicker, so when you can beat that you raise.

Since he's loose, and bad, I think I would give him credit for proably having a Q here, and probably fold with the combined chances of him having a Q, or trips.

I would consider raising, then checking behind to be a close 2nd though after folding. Maybe its a better play too, since he could have 10's - 8's, or just a 7, or could just be an outright bluff.

Even if raising is correct here, I can't see how it'd be THAT much more profitable than just giving him credit for the Q and saving 2 BB's

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll go against the crowd here and say fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

damn... you beat me to it while i was typing. I wanted to be the first one to disagree with all the 4 digit + posters.

[me454555]

Why is this such a debated issue, especially by the more experienced posters. This seems like clear fold to me. What do bad unimaginiative players do? they play their hands in a strait foward manner. You've shown plenty of aggression thusfar and represented at least a Q. Given the read that hes a bad player, he's probobly bettting a 6. If not a 6, then a Q.

What kind of hand do you put him on? Do you think he makes this play with a 7? how bout 89? Probobly not. You're most likely behind, the pot is small, and you've got only 2 outs. Why raise here?

Toss it into the muck and move on.

[bisonbison]

okay, so far the concensus is to raise, call or fold.

Rorschach!

[Nick C]

I don't know how sensible this is, but I would call down if I could beat (or likely outkick) top pair but fold because I can't.

My thinking is that villain is representing a 6, but I don't want to continue if he has a queen instead. He's not going to fold that queen. He may worry about an overpair, but he's not going to think I have a 6, so if I raise, he'll call with queens up.

If I call instead, he'll probably bet the river and I'll lose just as much (unless I spike a jack).

Sure, I may be ahead on the turn, but I doubt I am often enough.

A lot of players who are more experienced than I am are saying play on though, so I don't know.

[Danenania]

I like raise and fold to a 3-bet, then take a free showdown. Your hand is too good to fold but too vulnerable to call with.

[JimRivett]

I don't think this is a call or fold situation, it's a raise or fold situation.

He's a bad player, the board sometimes hits bad players, I would fold.

Jim

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
the board sometimes hits bad players, I would fold

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this is about the worst reasoning ever.

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]
The logic is: because he's not laggy you're not going to get bluffed out by a 3-bet, he may fold a hand with a few outs against you (A7 or somesuch), and it costs the same as calling down?


[/ QUOTE ]

True,

But consider this. If he is taking a shot at you his bluff only needs to work about 10% of the time to show a profit. You would have to almost always call in order to make it incorrect for him to bluff. If you either raise or fold here, his bluff has to work a much higher precentage of the time (about 25%) inorder to show a profit. Always raising or folding(never calling) allows you to fold this hand more often.

Stu

[JimRivett]

You meant to say that bad players never make any hands and never win any pots in the games you play in?

Jim

[CinnamonWind]

[ QUOTE ]
You meant to say that bad players never make any hands and never win any pots in the games you play in?

Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it was more that this is not a good enough reason to fold. What is essential is trying to determine if the board has hit the bad player this time in a way that beats our Hero. Given what we know, it's quite likely that it has, and in this small pot it's probably best to just move on.

What did you do, Bison? Any results?

[Eratosthenes]

If I did the math right you need to win 25% of the time to make calling down pay. You'll suck out nearly 5% of the time. You don't know how many outs MP1 has if you are ahead, but against a known bad player I think it is worth calling down.

[JimRivett]

You're killing my action, I wanted him to say "Yes they do!" and it would have proved my point.

On a serious note, don't you think that saying the board hits bad players is the same as saying I think he's got at least a Q?

Jim

[bisonbison]

Guys, if it helps at all, I posted this cause I really did have no idea what the right course of action was. Obviously there's some considered support for raising and for folding and less support for calling down.

So, uh, I called. The river paired the queen, he checked to me and I checked behind. And it didn't feel right so...

[brassnuts]

You describe the player as not really laggy, just bad. Trust your read here on what a non-thinking bad player has here. Did you feel like he had a Q or 6? If so,, then fold.

As for what I do (this of course without feel) is probably fold against a bad player here. But it's close, assuming he bets the river, you're getting a little over 3:1 to call down.

[ QUOTE ]
Guys, if it helps at all, I posted this cause I really did have no idea what the right course of action was. Obviously there's some considered support for raising and for folding and less support for calling down.

[/ QUOTE ]

What did you think/feel he had?

Edit: I'm really trying to trust my feel in sticky situations like this. I've been making an effort to make good laydowns on the turn.

[Lmn55d]

I'm not sure I understand why raising is better than calling down here. I understand why this line (fold to 3bet or take free showdown) is applicable in a lot of other situations, but it seems in this case with a drawless board choosing to go to showdown is only a good choice if there is a significant chance that this guy is bluffing, which there probably is. I just think he's gonna lay down to a turn raise a lot of times. If you call he'll probably bet the river again.

[sfer]

I think raising is a distant third to folding and calling, in that order.

[sfer]

Lots of bad erratic players bet out of nowhere and don't follow through on the next street. I'd rather call and see a river. I can't think of a hand he'd fold that you want to fold here.

EDIT: Just to be clearer, the pot is 4 BBs. There are lots of hands that fold to a raise that you are okay with seeing the river.

[Danenania]

Oops, I thought there were still players to act behind you. I don't raise, I call down.

[CinnamonWind]

Um ... what did he have????

[bisonbison]

Um ... what did he have????

I don't share results til the discussion dies. It's part of my small anti-hypocrisy effort.

[Danenania]

Is that code for "he had a 6"?

[CinnamonWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Um ... what did he have????

I don't share results til the discussion dies. It's part of my small anti-hypocrisy effort.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems pretty dead to me ...

[bisonbison]

Seems pretty dead to me ...

You'd take the kidneys from a sleeping man. This thread is just one EST phantom-bump away from explosion.

[CinnamonWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Seems pretty dead to me ...

You'd take the kidneys from a sleeping man. This thread is just one EST phantom-bump away from explosion.

[/ QUOTE ]

Only one. He doesn't need both.

[marching_on_together]

I think this is one of those situations where a reasonable case an be made for folding, calling or raising (hence the mixed response). The pot's small so as long as this player is relatively straight forward i think most of the time i fold here. Raising won't get a queen to fold even a tight player would call the raise hoping for a split on the river and you don't want a lower pair to fold so your only really raising to fold out a K or A here. calling get's the most out of him if he is bluffing unless he would call your raise when behind. I mix up my play by using all three actions in similar situations.

[CinnamonWind]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is one of those situations where a reasonable case an be made for folding, calling or raising (hence the mixed response). The pot's small so as long as this player is relatively straight forward i think most of the time i fold here. Raising won't get a queen to fold even a tight player would call the raise hoping for a split on the river and you don't want a lower pair to fold so your only really raising to fold out a K or A here. calling get's the most out of him if he is bluffing unless he would call your raise when behind. I mix up my play by using all three actions in similar situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

DAMMIT MAN!

[helpmeout]

I call here and fold on the river if he bets.

Weak players will sometimes bet out when a scare card falls but usually dont follow through if you call their bet.

Its a sad excuse for a bluff.

If he bets the river then most times he will have a 6 or a Q.

[Danenania]

Calling the turn then folding the river is ridiculous.

[helpmeout]

Why is that?

Weak players usually don't follow up with their bluffs.

I dont think he will bet A high or a 7 on the river after you have called the turn.

[Danenania]

"Weak players usually don't follow up with their bluffs."

Weak players don't usually bluff in the first place. Since I don't have much of a read on him I'm calling down because I don't know whether he's weak or not and if he's bluffing I would expect him to probably bluff again.

"I dont think he will bet A high or a 7 on the river after you have called the turn."

Why not? If he bet the turn with it, I don't see why he would get scared all of a sudden and not bet the river.

[marching_on_together]

DAMMIT MAN!

[/ QUOTE ]

and by that you mean?

[MarkL444]

I would fold here for two reasons
a) It's obviously close.
b) Calling down and being wrong might have an effect on my play.

[Danenania]

If it's close I would think gaining the information of how his opponent plays would be the most valuable ulterior consideration.

[MarkL444]

[ QUOTE ]
If it's close I would think gaining the information of how his opponent plays would be the most valuable ulterior consideration.

[/ QUOTE ]

meh. if it was live thatd be different

[evain]

I agree. The guy likely has a 6 in my book. I fold.

[JimRivett]

Here's why I fold.

Your read on your opponent is that he is a bad player, not a tricky player.

The board contains an overcard to your pocket pair.

All of a sudden you get a "bet out of nowhere", from a bad non-tricky player when a scare card hits the board. Until I'm convinced otherwise I'm going to believe him, especially here with a relatively small pot. I'm not interested in being the sheriff in this situation.

Now if you called him down and he didn't show you a better hand then of course you update the profile you have on him.

Jim

[Danenania]

"Your read on your opponent is that he is a bad player, not a tricky player."

Can two orbits possibly be enough to know whether this bad player is capable of trickiness or not? I take this relatively neutral EV opportunity to call him down and find out.

[JimRivett]

Can two orbits possibly be enough to know whether this bad player is capable of trickiness or not?

A couple of things here, the original poster thinks he's a bad player who plays too many hand. Generally bad players aren't tricky. and you have to start to build your player profile(s) somewhere. I see posts on this forum where the poster has all sorts of poker tracker stats on an opponent after only 20 hands against him (in fact I made a post questioning this.)

It was this read coupled with my other reasons (over card, small pot and bet from nowhere) which determined my reason to fold.

And finally, if you think he doesn't have and is taking a shot at the pot shouldn't you raise?

Jim

[sfer]

I agree up until this line: "And finally, if you think he doesn't have and is taking a shot at the pot shouldn't you raise?"

What hands to you worry about getting outdrawn if you're ahead now? AK? The pot is small enough where if you think he's bluffing and you've committed yourself to showdown, I think it's best to let him bet the river again.

[DeeJ]

Given that he's around 90% VPIP he is as likely to have a 6 as he is an Ace. I give him credit and fold.

I hope the results aren't "I folded so I don't know what he had but he said he had a 6" /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree. The guy likely has a 6 in my book. I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's got a 6. If he's truly a bad player, mechanism's like luring and check-raising and betting scare cards just don't exist to him. He liked that card, so he bet it.

And if he doesn't have a 6, the Q's still out there. If he's really just "Bad", he could be thinking any number of things:

"Oh a pair of queens! I'm gonna slow play this. Oh [censored], i hope he doesn't have three sixes, I should bet".

AND since he's in nearly every hand, you're certain to run into him again. If he actually was on a bluff, he'll probably be more likely to bluff you in the future, bluffs you can call down with better hands (like AQ here).

If you had the Q I can see raising or calling, but you don't even have TP.

By my figuring, the pot's small, and a really bad player woke up on a scare card. That means fold.

[runa]

We don't really have a very solid read on the opponent and I think given the hero's play on previous streets there's no reason to believe a 6 wouldn't check-raise in this spot. Even bad players know how to slowplay.

[JimRivett]

First of all remember I'm folding because of all the reasons I've already given.

Now if for some reason I had cause to think he was taking a shot at the pot with a bluff, I would raise so as to send him a message not to mess with MY pots. This raise, I would hope, would give me respect in any future pots contested heads up with this guy and maybe with any of the others at the table who observe the action. Like I said earlier I do not won't to be the table sheriff, however I have no problem with being the table bully.

You also have to remember, I'm used to playing live where I get maybe 40 hands per hour, playing online, two tables, I get 120 hands per hour. I have no problem waiting for better opportunities, and I'm sure after a few more rounds we'll improve our profile of this guy without me being the one to invest the 2 big bets.

Jim

[Danenania]

Interesting how all the expert handreaders came out of the woodwork after bison posted the river action...

[sfer]

Fair enough. I would rather fold too.

I play several live games against lots of regular, familiar faces and I understand your reasoning. Online, however, the turnover is great enough where image considerations aren't really worthwhile. Particularly against pre-identified bad players who probably aren't paying attention.

[A_C_Slater]

In a B&amp;M game with this type of opponent, I fold. Online, I would call down because the added ability of being able to see what he actually has and being able to put a note on him for all eternity may actually end up being more profitable than the 2 BB's I stand to lose in this one hand.
This is only good of course, if you will be playing with him regularly.

[bisonbison]

Interesting how all the expert handreaders came out of the woodwork after bison posted the river action...

The best part is, I lied.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.16 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.16 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7.16 BB

[Stu Pidasso]

If your going to fold on the river calling the turn is a mistake.

Stu

[bisonbison]

If your going to fold on the river calling the turn is a mistake.

Meh. Let's say the turn call costs me 1000 sklansky pesos. That's one mistake. When the river pairs the queen and he bets, I think calling would be another mistake.

I mean, admittedly, calling the turn may not be the right play, but given that I made that choice...

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
If your going to fold on the river calling the turn is a mistake.

Meh. Let's say the turn call costs me 1000 sklansky pesos. That's one mistake. When the river pairs the queen and he bets, I think calling would be another mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Rationalize this all you want, but it's raise or fold on the turn, not call then fold the river. This is a horribly played hand.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[bisonbison]

This is a horribly played hand.

That, I'm grokking.

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]
Meh. Let's say the turn call costs me 1000 sklansky pesos. That's one mistake. When the river pairs the queen and he bets, I think calling would be another mistake.


[/ QUOTE ]

Thats why I like raising the turn instead of calling. In most cases it eliminates the need to deal with "betters remorse" on the river.

Stu

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]
That, I'm grokking.

[/ QUOTE ]


I'll save everyone some time
tr.v. Slang grok·ked, grok·king, groks
To understand profoundly through intuition or empathy.

Stu

[Danenania]

Joe could you reiterate the problem with just calling down? Don't we want him to bet again if he's bluffing with few outs?

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]
Joe could you reiterate the problem with just calling down? Don't we want him to bet again if he's bluffing with few outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good strategy with a habitual bluffer. If someone bluffs too much you want to encourage that wrong behavior. Calling would accomplish that.

The situation here is that our hero's opponent is unkown. Our hero has a hand that is a just a tad bit to good to auto release. If our hero just calls or folds his opponent can bluff and earn a profit if he is successful a little more than 10% of the time. If our hero raises or folds(folding to a reraise or river bet), his opponent has bluff successfully 25% of the time to earn a profit. Only raising or folding reduces the need to be a table cop. That is why raising is superior to calling in this situation.

Stu

edit: for clarity

[bisonbison]

This is a good strategy with a habitual bluffer. If someone bluffs too much you want to encourage that wrong behavior. Calling would accomplish that.

The situation here is that our hero's opponent is unkown. Our hero has a hand that is a just a tad bit to good to auto release. If our hero just calls or folds his opponent can bluff and earn a profit if he is successful a little more than 10% of the time. If our hero raises or folds(folding to a reraise or river bet), his opponent has bluff successfully 25% of the time to earn a profit. Only raising or folding reduces the need to be a table cop. That is why raising is superior to calling in this situation.

Stu, thanks for restating this so clearly. Now if only I can remember this sh[/b]it in the moment.

[DMBFan23]

seems like it could be boiled down to

P(he'll fold to your turn raise) + P(chance he'll check the river with a hand that beats you, if you raise) &gt;= P(you get three bet by a hand you beat) + P(he smooth calls and bets the river with a hand you beat)

this is assuming:
we fold to a turn three bet
we check behind on any river card
we fold to any river bet.

I am not counting the times we spike a J, or the times he spikes a K or A to win. I don't know if this is correct, but I just assumed they'd cancel (maybe this isnt too far from correct, because he has to call a raise with K high/A high and also spike, probably not likely)

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Joe could you reiterate the problem with just calling down? Don't we want him to bet again if he's bluffing with few outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good strategy with a habitual bluffer. If someone bluffs too much you want to encourage that wrong behavior. Calling would accomplish that.

The situation here is that our hero's opponent is unkown. Our hero has a hand that is a just a tad bit to good to auto release. If our hero just calls or folds his opponent can bluff and earn a profit if he is successful a little more than 10% of the time. If our hero raises or folds(folding to a reraise or river bet), his opponent has bluff successfully 25% of the time to earn a profit. Only raising or folding reduces the need to be a table cop. That is why raising is superior to calling in this situation.

Stu

edit: for clarity

[/ QUOTE ]

I like what you said about raising or folding, I don't usually look at it from that angle, and I should.

However, I still maintain a fold on this turn is the right move. The pot simply isn't large enough to fight it out with less than top pair.

By the next time Bison and this guy get into a pot, by watching the rest of the hands, Bison will know if the guy's a bluffer or not.

If the dude's ends up being a bluffer, then although folding may have been incorrect this hand, Bison will probably make that money back when the guy trys to walk over him again.

If the guy is just bad, folding is the right play. There are too many hands that have bison beat, and if he is beat, he's only got two outs.

[Joe Tall]

However, I still maintain a fold on this turn is the right move. The pot simply isn't large enough to fight it out with less than top pair.

And that is fine as it's raise or fold. Remember that turn play is critical in Hold'em and once you commit, you are likely always going to a showdown in heads up situations.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
If our hero just calls or folds his opponent can bluff and earn a profit if he is successful a little more than 10% of the time. If our hero raises or folds(folding to a reraise or river bet), his opponent has bluff successfully 25% of the time to earn a profit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stu,

I feel dumb. Please explain 10%.

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]
I feel dumb. Please explain 10%.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm the one who should feel dumb, I messed up the math. I shouldn't drink when I post. Its 25% and 50% instead of 10% and 25%. Concept still applies.

Stu

[BottlesOf]

Dave,

You are dumb.

-Chris