AKo - over valued - basic hand

[Demana]

I've realized that I've over valued AK in my NL games, but I haven't yet addressed it in my limit play. Lots of mistakes to be talked about here...

Game
$4/8 live ring game
9 players

Reads
Button seems to be fairly tight aggressive, but he's also too tricky for the table. He'll try for a check/raise on all streets and hasn't had to show many hands.
UTG & UTG+1 are both loose.

The Hand
Hero has AKo in CO

Preflop: UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, folded to Hero who <font color="red">raises</font>, Button <font color="red">3-bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero <font color="red">caps</font>, Button calls, UTG calls.

Flop: 359 rainbow
Pot: (14.5 SB)

UTG checks, Hero checks, Button <font color="red">bets</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls

Turn: 2 (completing the rainbow)
Pot: (16.5 SB)

Hero checks, button <font color="red">bets</font>, Hero calls

River: K
Pot: (20.5 SB)

Hero checks, button <font color="red">bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final pot: (24.5 SB)

[Grease]

Fold the turn. Even though the pot is offering you 10:1, I would still fold this here. You have 6 outs, and they probably won't win you every time you spike one. Since you didn't, check/raise the river.

[MoreWineII]

For the sake of argument, let's say we've gotten to the river, where you c/r'ed. Opponent 3-bets, do you fold?

[Demana]

I figure that I have 10 outs at this point: 3 kings, 3 aces, and 4 twos for the wheel. Getting 10:1, this is a must call based on these assumptions.

Honestly though, did I over value the hand preflop by capping and should I have bet or check/raised the flop?

[Demana]

There are two reasons I didn't check raise:

#1 I felt guilty for sucking out /images/graemlins/blush.gif

#2 I didn't want to have to fold to a 3-bet

I think if I played this better earlier on, then I'd have had enough information to make a +EV decision facing a 3-bet.

[MoreWineII]

[ QUOTE ]
Honestly though, A.) did I over value the hand preflop by capping and B.) should I have bet or check/raised the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

A.) No, although I don't *always* cap AKo.

B.) Given your read of button as really tricky, I'd bet that flop after you capped preflop. You very well could be best and by check/calling, you're basically telling both your opponents what you're holding. That's going to make it difficult to get action on your A or K if it hits.

btw, I might have just talked myself into betting out the river rather than c/r'ing.

[Shillx]

I would fire away on teh river. Your cap preflop followed by your check/call on the flop has to mean AK to him. You can only put the button on a range of hands, and he almost certainly knows exactly what you hold. Bet the river, call a raise. Pray that he makes a crying call with QQ-TT.

Shill

[Demana]

Ok, so I should bet/call the flop.
Turn is ok to check/call.
When the K comes on the river, I should:

#1 Go for a check raise if the button did not bet the turn, trying to induce a bluff.

#2 Bet the river if he bet the turn as he might think I am trying to bluff?

[MoreWineII]

Depends on what happened on the turn, well *and* the flop.

Err, still thinking...

[Grease]

I didn't realize you had a gutshot on the turn. That's an easy call. If you get three-bet, it's a crappy fold you have to make...

[Demana]

Clarification for us newbies:

I didn't over value AKo preflop with position?

I guess I've been playing with the non-raising fish too much.