Goon2
12-08-2004, 02:47 PM
Let me begin with the only thing I am sure about: I am a math moron.
In hold 'em, we deal almost exclusively in odds. For example, if I have a gutshot with one card to come, I am roughly a 10.5:1 dog to hit one of my four outs. This is to say that over the next 11.5 cards, my out will come once (10.5 times I get a blank, 1 time I hit my out).
The question, then, is how to deal with the percentages. It has been explained to me that if you have a 75% chance of something happening, it is expressed in odds form as 3:1. So, like the example in the preceeding paragraph, for every four times a card comes, I'll miss 3 times and hit once.
I thought I had it all figured out. That is, until I saw the Poker Royale show on GSN last night, and the commentator was talking about how Player A would win the hand 10% (he was drawing to few outs), and Player B would win the hand 90% of the time, making him a 90% favorite.
The announcer said: Player B is a 10:1 favorite.
I thought, that's not right. Player B is a 9:1 favorite. For every 10 times a card comes up, Player B's hand will hold up 9 times. One time the hand will not hold up because Player B will have hit one of his few outs.
I am now wondering whether I have this all screwed up in my mind or if the commentator is wrong. Who is right?
When explaining this to me, assume I know nothing. Thanks.
In hold 'em, we deal almost exclusively in odds. For example, if I have a gutshot with one card to come, I am roughly a 10.5:1 dog to hit one of my four outs. This is to say that over the next 11.5 cards, my out will come once (10.5 times I get a blank, 1 time I hit my out).
The question, then, is how to deal with the percentages. It has been explained to me that if you have a 75% chance of something happening, it is expressed in odds form as 3:1. So, like the example in the preceeding paragraph, for every four times a card comes, I'll miss 3 times and hit once.
I thought I had it all figured out. That is, until I saw the Poker Royale show on GSN last night, and the commentator was talking about how Player A would win the hand 10% (he was drawing to few outs), and Player B would win the hand 90% of the time, making him a 90% favorite.
The announcer said: Player B is a 10:1 favorite.
I thought, that's not right. Player B is a 9:1 favorite. For every 10 times a card comes up, Player B's hand will hold up 9 times. One time the hand will not hold up because Player B will have hit one of his few outs.
I am now wondering whether I have this all screwed up in my mind or if the commentator is wrong. Who is right?
When explaining this to me, assume I know nothing. Thanks.