Standard Hand 2: Whiffed Overcards OOP

[GrunchCan]

Common situation that is similar to this hand (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1358700&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1). But now, I am out of position and being out-muscled.

Typical PP 1/2 players.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP3 calls, Hero folds.

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

Call and check-fold the turn unimproved. This is a little weak for my tastes, and I think the pot is big enough to warrant a call.

[GrunchCan]

Yes, I think your'e right.

[John Paul]

I would call and check fold unimproved as well

[nyc999]

Definitely call, UTG+1 may be pumping a flush draw, or have 1 pair and is trying to isolate.

[srt19170]

[ QUOTE ]
Call and check-fold the turn unimproved. This is a little weak for my tastes, and I think the pot is big enough to warrant a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've got 6 outs to TPTK, so you need 7:1 to call, and you're getting that. (You've also got runner-runner to nut str8 which is worth another out or so.)

-- Scott

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

[ QUOTE ]

You've got 6 outs to TPTK, so you need 7:1 to call, and you're getting that. (You've also got runner-runner to nut str8 which is worth another out or so.)

-- Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

and backdoor flush

[WSOP Bound]

Why would you call here. You have 6 outs for TPTK, which may not be best hand so I'll count them as three outs. You have .5 out to the K high runner-runner flash. And about zero chance at the backdoor gutshot straight, especially with the two diamnds taking away some of your outs to that. Your facing a bet and a raise. I don't see how 3.5 outs justify calling two cold when your pot odds are about 5.25 to 1. Even with great implied odds I would have to release this.

[topspin]

[ QUOTE ]
Your facing a bet and a raise. I don't see how 3.5 outs justify calling two cold when your pot odds are about 5.25 to 1. Even with great implied odds I would have to release this.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's calling 1 bet into a 12SB pot closing the action. I also think you may be undervaluing the BD flush, but since it's a 1-carder I won't argue too hard. I'd call, especially considering he was the flop bettor.

[DrBob]

How do you justify counting the overcard outs as full outs? This is probably closer to 4-5 outs than 7.

In fact, I agree with calling the raise, but for other reasons than odds: You might see the river for free if he's not aggressive, he might be on a flush draw (you've got the best hand), it's noticeable to bet and fold the same round.

[srt19170]

[ QUOTE ]
You have 6 outs for TPTK, which may not be best hand so I'll count them as three outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think Villain has a set 50% of the time? I don't think so.

-- Scott

[GrunchCan]

If you usually estimate your overcards to be worth 3 outs each, then you are overestimating thier worth.

In this case, any K puts a 3-straight on board, and A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif puts a more dangerous 3-flush on board. What's more, you could be reverse-dominated or even drawing dead against a set or 2-pair. The point is, you can't say with 100% certianty that spiking your pair will win the pot. And so, you can never count 2 overcards as being worth 6 outs. 1.5 outs each is standard. In many cases, they are worth even less.

However, there are 2 mitigating factors in this hand: I have 2 backdoor draws, each also worth about 1.5 outs. So you came to the right conclusion - that my hand was worth 6 outs. But your reasoning was wrong.

[droolie]

I wouldn't fold either. You're closing the action. Even if I didn't have the outs I'd call half the time in this situation for table image alone. Folding too much in these spots tends to get the rest of the table taking shots at you before too long and your semi-bluffs start to get zero respect.

[GrunchCan]

I agree folding was a clear mistake. As I watched the hand replay in PT, I thought to myself, "Fold? You idiot!"

[WSOP Bound]

Thank you I misread the hand and thought that he was calling cold missing that he was the original bettor.

[srt19170]

[ QUOTE ]

And so, you can never count 2 overcards as being worth 6 outs. 1.5 outs each is standard. In many cases, they are worth even less.


[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. On this board, I wouldn't normally discount KA overcards much, but maybe I need to discount them more.

-- Scott

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have 6 outs for TPTK, which may not be best hand so I'll count them as three outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think Villain has a set 50% of the time? I don't think so.

-- Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget that AT and KT are not out of the question. Also don't forget that if we hit and are behind, we are going to lose a fair number of bets. Also don't forget that we can hit and get drawn out on by a flush or a straight. I think counting these overcards as 3 outs is not unreasonable.

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
However, there are 2 mitigating factors in this hand: I have 2 backdoor draws, each also worth about 1.5 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

A double gutshot backdoor straight draw is worth about .5 outs, not 1.5. That there is a flush draw on makes it worth even less.

[DMBFan23]

why is 1.5 standard for overcards? (I've read SSH, I'm asking rhetorically)

I think this is way more experience based than something like backdoor flush outs, which are calculated more mathematically.

as a theoretical exercise, rate my overcard outs (not other outs, such as flush/straight outs):

Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Flop of 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif

A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif, Flop of 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif

J /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif, Flop of 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I guess my point is that it's more the general concept of discounting outs that matters rather than the fact that each overcard is worth 2.781 outs - Ed says in SSH we can't be expected to do all the math for discounting while we're at the table anyway.

[wyattjames4]

i dont think youre neccesarily behind in this hand. the raiser easily could have an open ended or a flush draw. the raise would be a good play in my mind. i think you call for sure, and i might even lead on the turn depending on the situation.

[Octopus]

How many players? What pre-flop action? What has happened so far on the flop? How loose are my opponents?

You have asked an unanswerable question.

[LeftBack]

Tell me, what is your win rate with one pair in Poker Tracker?

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]

as a theoretical exercise, rate my overcard outs (not other outs, such as flush/straight outs)

I guess my point is that it's more the general concept of discounting outs that matters


[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, I was too ambiguous, partially cause I wanted to give a couple of examples of hands, and all the action would have obscured them, and partially because I just wanted to say that overcard outs vary in value a lot, which may get obscured by having a value attached to the generic concept of "overcard"

but for completeness' sake, for all hands let's assume we're on the button and we raise 2 limpers, BB calls. on the flop, the second limper (in MP) bets.

[DMBFan23]

I'll edit the post I am now making when I get home from work and have access to PT.

we are counting the one pair hands where I don't fold, yes?

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
Tell me, what is your win rate with one pair in Poker Tracker?

[/ QUOTE ]

That statistic includes when there is a pair on the board and when you were on a draw and back into a pair on the river. Don't read too much into it.

[LeftBack]

I was trying to point out another way to look at the discount for overcards and TPTK hands.

[Goon2]

It would help to have a read on the players behind you.

With 3 players in the hand at the flop, I don't think UTG+1 is pushing a draw if he knows what he is doing. A raise for value from a flush draw is neutral EV. A bet/raise is a -EV play for an OESD. What's more, if UTG+1 doesn't know what he is doing, I doubt he would be raising unless you had him down as a LP-A or something like that with an astronomical VP$IP.

I am unconcerned, for now, by the cold call by MP3. He's likely drawing but paying too much to do so.

As has been pointed out, the raise makes me worry about reverse domination. It think it's somewhat likely either has KJ, AJ, K9, A9, K6, A6, in which case you are screwed.

I think worrying about a set is seeing monsters, but 2 pair is not out of the question. Many PPers will limp with J9.

UTG+1 has something, and it's possible some or none of your overcard outs are good. I think you count them as no more than 4 outs.

You have the backdoor flush and the VERY unlikely backdoor straight.

At worst I think you're 10.5:1, so you have to call. It's a +EV play. Folding is -EV.

On the turn, your backdoor draws either turn to pumpkins or come alive. They'll determine whether you can consider doing anything except check/fold the turn.