Is this turn fold to a 2 bet incorrect?

[littlejohn]

I feel like I misplayed this hand, although that might be results oriented. Is this a flop fold anyway - so no turn decision? UTG is loose passive and UTG+2 is LAG. Am I wrong on all streets? Thanks for the feedback -

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, <font color="666666">6 folds</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, Hero folds, UTG calls.

River: (8.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+2 checks.

Final Pot: 8.75 BB

[bisonbison]

The turn decision is all about math. How big is the pot? how many outs do you think you have? How often will those outs win/split? What odds are you being offered? How likely are you to get 3-bet behind?

[mikeyvegas]

Yeah, that turn action kind of sucks. You have 4 outs to the nuts, and another 4 to the 7-J str8. You could be up against Q10 and youre not closing the action getting 7.75:2. Folding seems like a fair play to me. Looks like you folded the winner, but you were justified to do IMO.

[mikeyvegas]

[ QUOTE ]
The turn decision is all about math. How big is the pot? how many outs do you think you have? How often will those outs win/split? What odds are you being offered? How likely are you to get 3-bet behind?

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yeah, and what he said....

[littlejohn]

Thanks bison, I appreciate the response.

So should I make this a verb, like I need to "math" it? Ugh, not my strong suit, but here goes:

To be honest, I did not count any sevens as outs - so felt fine about the fold until the river fell, then after they checked it through, I fell out of my chair (and realized my mistake).

But if I had counted correctly I've got 4 clean outs in queens, and possibly 4 clean to a second nut straight with 7's. That's eight outs. I don't feel like aces and/or tens are going to help me here.

I'm not getting 3 bet by the passive player behind me, and should be able to collect at least 1 more river bet in implied odds. So I've got 7.75-2 in current odds, and perhaps 8.75-2 in implied. So 4.375-1 is implied odds, with a possible 8 outs. Now I've got to go read on converting my outs to odds to know whether or not I should have called this.

UTG shows A8o, UTG+2 shows KK.

[prox]

7.75 to 2 on an open ended straight draw, which is 4.1 to 1. That's a correct fold, give the guy credit for raising you out. My gripe is why did you call the flop? I see no draw at all, no backdoor club possibility. You have to think you're well behind, A would likely be counterfeited and a Ten has no chance of winning. Your only possibility to win would be to hit a runner runner straight, which is over 100 to 1 to hit.

The correct play for me would have been to fold the flop.

[Cerril]

Given your reads I feel like this is a call, but a fold if it's capped. I count you at between 7 and 9 outs (four queens, four sevens (I'd count this as 3 outs, since you're likely up against a T, but I might count it fully as well), and three aces devalued).

You're getting 7.75:1 here, so it's a call if UTG folds. If he calls it's 8.75:1, if he raises it's 10.75:2 (UTG+2 isn't folding). The real question is what to do here if you call and UTG reraises. I think it's worth the gamble to call and fold in that occasion depending on how passive postflop he is.

However, if your reads were less sound I think you're okay folding here if you are sure your ace isn't live.

[stigmata]

"My gripe is why did you call the flop? I see no draw at all"

He has gutshot draw on the flop (Q), and with implied odds i think he can just about call the flop. When the OESD unexpectedly comes up on the turn, things get even more complex...

[Chaos_ult]

He has a gutshot to the nuts, and an overcard. You can value this hand at about 5.5 outs.

[runa]

If there was a really good chance UTG was going to re-raise you would have to factor that into the total cost of calling, but I think given your reads as a passive player you're probably safe just calling here.

I think its a call on the turn even if UTG folds, which I can't see unless this player is really really weak tight. I think if you devalue your ace outs sufficiently and account for the small chance of a split pot if your str8 hits, I think you still come out to 8 outs or so, which is 4.1:1 and its close but you can call, expecting to make up some of that in implied odds if you hit.