Trips, but something's wrong...

[edthayer]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB checks.

Flop: (6.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Button calls, BB folds, UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, Button calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (11.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero calls, <font color="CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, Button folds, <font color="CC3333">UTG caps</font>, Hero folds, MP2 calls.

River: (22.25 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 24.25 BB

[MoreWineII]

I'm calling down there. I think I've got the best ace as there was no preflop raise.

Maybe somebody has 55, maybe not.

[Brash620]

Somethings wrong alright...... you folded. Had it been me I would have called all the way to showdown. I really can't tell why UTG came alive on the turn but either way you shouldn't let him scare you, no raise preflop can lead you to beleive that their are no strong aces up against you thus you have the best hand. With the exception of 5,5 of course.

[private joker]

You're getting 20:2 on your turn call. Do you really think your hand isn't good at least 10% of the time? I think maybe 5% of the time one opponent has 55, and maybe 20% of the time he has a weakly played (PF that is) AJ or something. Maybe 50% of the time one of your two opponents has you beat. But even if they do (let's put a guy on 55), you have 4 outs to a better boat. Three nines and the case ace will give you the best hand a vast majority of the time here (the 9s are only dirty if he specifically has AT), so I really see no reason to fold this turn.

I see the argument that if you don't improve you may have to call more bets on the river to get to SD. But you clearly have the odds to call 2 more on the turn, call UTG's river bet, and fold if it's two more back to you (with the MP raising and UTG 3-betting). Likely, the turn action will force one of the two opponents to slow down, and I doubt you'd have to call more than one river bet if you don't improve. Therefore, call this down.

[edthayer]

Yeah, this fold has been bugging me for a while.

But I really can't see this getting capped on the flop and the turn without me being behind.

A5, 55, AT, AJ, AQ, AK, and TT beat me. AK, AQ, and TT are highly unlikely due to the preflop and flop action. I'm going to be paying a minimum of 3 BB to see a showdown, and possibly as much as 6, if they keep it up. I guess the pot is huge enough that I need to show this one down, huh?



RESULTS:
UTG showed 55, the other guy had AQ...That damn 9 had to come on the river just to make me lose sleep!

[Malcom Reynolds]

But I really can't see this getting capped on the flop and the turn without me being behind.

True, but you have 4 outs against 55. Don't fold the turn.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]


But I really can't see this getting capped on the flop and the turn without me being behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's okay. Like I said, if you're behind to 55, you have 7 outs to improve (three 9s, one ace, three Ts), and if you're behind to a bigger ace, you have 3 outs to win (the 9s) and 6 outs to chop (the 5s and Ts). This justifies calling the turn getting 20:2. It doesn't mean you have to showdown. It just means you want to see a river.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm going to be paying a minimum of 3 BB to see a showdown, and possibly as much as 6, if they keep it up. I guess the pot is huge enough that I need to show this one down, huh?


[/ QUOTE ]

Not necessarily. As I said, you can call the turn based on odds and still fold the river unimproved. If UTG bets and you call and MP raises and UTG 3-bets, you can safely fold the river. But more likely, UTG will bet and get his 2 overcalls, meaning it only cost you 3BB to showdown.

Lastly, don't let the river 9 results affect you. Pretend it was a brick and look at the hand with the odds.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
But I really can't see this getting capped on the flop and the turn without me being behind.

True, but you have 4 outs against 55. Don't fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he's got 7 outs against 55. The case ace, the three 9s, and the three Ts.

[Malcom Reynolds]

You're right. Missed those hidden outs.

[edthayer]

The way this was played, we can discount the final ace as an out. There is no possible way that final ace is not in someone's hand. My 9s are likely outs, but against AT, I am drawing to only one out (the final ten).

But you're right: even if I give myself 5 or 6 outs, I'm getting 10:1. I should call. It's better than a gutshot by far.